The importance of minutes played in relation to fantasy production has been debated and discussed plenty over the past few years. While an uptick in minutes is certainly a good thing for a player’s chances at producing additional fantasy stats, the extent of the impact that is felt by a change in minutes varies greatly from player to player.
Certain players have a strong correlation between an increase in minutes and fantasy points, while others may see a minimal increase in fantasy production when given a few extra minutes per game. Looking even deeper, an increase in minutes can be more meaningful from player to player based more on the team that they play for than the player themselves.
For example, a four-minute increase per game could be extremely meaningful for a player on a team that plays at a fast pace and has a greater amount of possessions each game, while that same four minutes may not produce a noticeable impact on the fantasy production of a player on a slower-paced team – give this article a read if you’re looking to dig into this idea further.
Taking all of this into account, any time we see a player receive a change in playing time over a stretch longer than a game or two, we should be taking note. Each week in the space below I’ll take a look at a few players that have had a noticeable change in playing time – whether positive or negative – throughout the past week or two. I’ll attempt to flesh out the reason(s) behind the change, determine if this change has been correlating into an increase or decrease in fantasy production, and how long we can expect this change in playing time to continue.
In addition to this, I’ll go through the leaders in minutes by position – based upon DraftKings player position eligibility – and examine what these huge minute totals mean for some of the league leaders at each position.
The Good
Donald Sloan
After Jarrett Jack went down with an injury for the season, many were quick to anoint Shane Larkin as the Nets point guard to roster. What many failed to remember is that Shane Larkin just isn’t good at playing basketball. It really might be that simple in this backcourt. It isn’t necessarily that Sloan is an elite player, but more so that Larkin just isn’t up to the task of running the first unit. It appears the coaching staff has finally started to take note of this as well, as Sloan hasn’t played less than 22 minutes in a game over the past seven games and has over 30 minutes in two of his past four. This uptick in playing time has translated into decent fantasy production over this timeframe.
The Nets are a bad team and a constant threat to be blown out – a major red flag. However, over the past six games the Nets have been blown out by 27 or more points in two games. In these contests, Sloan logged 24 and 25 minutes. These may not appear to be huge totals on the surface, but when we’re talking about a point guard available for under $5,000 that has flashed a ceiling in the mid-3o DK point range of late – he’s logged three 30-plus nights in the past seven games – it at least makes Sloan an interesting tournament play. Largely due to his recent price increase, it is still a bit risky to roster Sloan in cash games, but if he’s able to keep up his recent play that will change quickly.
The Bad
Jeff Teague
Teague has watched his playing time and role on this team slowly diminish over the previous few weeks. Already averaging the lowest per-game minute total since becoming a full-time starter five years ago, Teague has watched his court time drop even further over the previous eight games. As we’d generally expect, his production is down, but even more unsettling is how the Hawks are performing with him on the court compared to Dennis Schroder. With Teague on the floor, Atlanta has averaged 1.04 points per possession and is shooting a combined 44.5% from the field. With Schroder, they’re averaging 1.12 points per possession and are shooting a combined 48.1%.
Additionally, Teague has managed a disappointing plus/minus of -2.9 this year as compared to Schroder’s +9.2 (I’m referring to the traditional NBA statistic, not Fantasy Labs’ proprietary Plus/Minus statistic). Some of this has to do with Schroder picking up some garbage time minutes, but is worth noting nonetheless. And what is the reason we care so much about these things? Mainly because the Atlanta staff seems to be noticing the play of these two players and their playing time has reflected it. Over the past eight games, Teague has averaged 23.9 minutes and Schroder 21.2. Teague’s job would appear to be safe, but until he reestablishes himself or sees his price drop (despite his recent struggles, his price is down only $300 over the past month), it’s difficult to use him anywhere other than GPPs.
Why do we care so much about Teague’s playing time in relation to his value? Utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve prepared a query that will return the results of every game over the past season in which we’ve projected Teague for 28 or less minutes – and the results are not promising.
Compare these totals to his Plus/Minus of +1.06 in games that we see him projected for 29 or more minutes and it becomes fairly clear as to when we should be considering Teague. He has the ability to produce quality performances, but with his fluctuating minutes right now, he carries a larger amount of risk than in the past.
The Minute Leaders
Khris Middleton’s minutes continue to increase, but he hasn’t quite been able to crack the top three yet. He’s been surprisingly consistent and begun contributing in other areas than just his scoring. His price is still reasonable, keeping him in play in all formats.
No real movement among the top players at each position this week, but it is worth noting that Paul George has taken Kevin Durant’s spot from last week and will continue to see heavy playing time.
