The importance of minutes played in relation to fantasy production has been debated and discussed plenty over the past few years. While an uptick in minutes is certainly a good thing for a player’s chances at producing additional fantasy stats, the extent of the impact that is felt by a change in minutes varies greatly from player to player.
Certain players have a strong correlation between an increase in minutes and fantasy points, while others may see a minimal increase in fantasy production when given a few extra minutes per game. Looking even deeper, an increase in minutes can be more meaningful from player to player based more on the team that they play for than the player themselves.
For example, a four-minute increase per game could be extremely meaningful for a player on a team that plays at a fast pace and has a greater amount of possessions each game, while that same four minutes may not produce a noticeable impact on the fantasy production of a player on a slower-paced team – give this article a read if you’re looking to dig into this idea further.
Taking all of this into account, any time we see a player receive a change in playing time over a stretch longer than a game or two, we should be taking note. Each week in the space below I’ll take a look at a few players that have had a noticeable change in playing time – whether positive or negative – throughout the past week or two. I’ll attempt to flesh out the reason(s) behind the change, determine if this change has been correlating into an increase or decrease in fantasy production and how long we can expect this change in playing time to continue.
In addition to this, I’ll go through the leaders in minutes by position, based upon DraftKings player position eligibility, and examine what these huge minute totals mean for some of the league leaders at each position.
The Good
Devin Booker
The rookie out of Kentucky has capitalized on the opportunity created by Eric Bledsoe’s recent season-ending injury, averaging 24 DK points per game over his previous eight contests. Booker was bound to see an increase in production with his new role – he’s started seven of the eight games Bledsoe has been out – but I’m not certain we’d have expected the increase to be quite as large as it’s been. As we’ve discussed in this space before, often when a reserve player is thrust into a starting role, the player’s efficiency and per minute averages will decrease as they face tougher competition – both for offensive opportunities among the starters on their own team and the defense they’ll face from the opponents starting five. With Booker, that hasn’t been the case.
Prior to Bledsoe’s injury, Booker had logged 372 minutes on the season and had been paired with Bledsoe for approximately 40% of those minutes. With Bledsoe’s heavy offensive involvement, Booker saw his usage rate fall to only 10.8% whenever he shared the court with him. Anytime he was on the court without him, he had a more respectable usage rate of 16.8%. With Bledsoe completely out of the picture, Booker is now sporting a 20.7% usage rate, drastically increasing the rookie’s nightly ceiling.
With his assist and rebound rates also up, his increased playing time with the starting unit has correlated into him averaging 0.75 DK points per minute – an increase of .08 when compared to the time period prior to Bledsoe’s injury. This per minute production increase combined with the additional court time has produced great fantasy returns. Using our Trends tool, we can see that he has a Plus/Minus of +6.03 since Bledsoe was lost for the season.
Ronnie Price is around and also seeing playing time, but Booker has played at least 29 minutes in all but one game post-Bledsoe. The real concern is his pricing on DraftKings, where he will cost you $4,900. If you’re looking to utilize him, he’s an amazing value on FanDuel currently, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Bad
Will Barton
This one hurts a bit. I’ve been a huge Barton backer all season and loved being able to roll him out at his generally reasonable price most nights. The past four games have been brutal for the young Denver Nugget and a few disturbing trends have crept in.
Barton had probably his greatest stretch of games this season when Danilo Gallinari went down with an ankle injury a few weeks ago. Over the six games Gallinari was out, Barton averaged 34.32 minutes and 38.50 DK points per night. And while he’s had success with Gallinari in the lineup at times, his minutes and usage are far more volatile. We’ve certainly seen the extreme ends of this volatility of late, as you can see in his performances below.
For the year, Barton has played 490 of his total 1,126 minutes (43.5%) while sharing the court with Gallinari, a situation that that has negatively affected his fantasy production. With Gallinari on the court, Barton’s usage rate sits at 20.8% and he produces 0.91 DK points per minute. Without him on the court, Barton’s usage rate jumps to 26.9% and his DK points per minute also increases to 1.09.
Due to this split, coach Mike Malone’s minute distribution since Gallinari’s return from injury is concerning. Not only are Barton’s minutes down, but of the 150 minutes he’s played over this stretch, Gallinari has been on the court for 58% of them. This, possibly combined with Malone’s comments regarding Barton’s offensive approach to his game, have led to Barton attempting only 9.5 shots per game over the past four nights (he averaged 13.5 previously).
If Barton’s minutes continue to fluctuate, there is a real concern for his viability on a nightly basis and it certainly removes him from any cash-game consideration. The correlation between minutes played and fantasy production is extremely strong for Barton – confirmed by a correlation coefficient of 0.84. His price was pumped up during Gallinari’s absence, but is on the decline now and as such, he could re-emerge as a useable asset in the near future if it continues to fall. Until this coaching staff figures out exactly how they want to utilize him, it’s difficult to roster him with any confidence at the moment, no matter the price.
The Minutes Leaders
Jimmy Butler’s minutes continue to slowly rise, as he has now overtaken both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and James Harden as the leader in minutes per game. Over the past eight games he’s averaging 39.1 minutes and 46.8 DK points per night. He’s taken over as the primary distributor for this offense and the Bulls offense appears to be playing better as a whole. Continue utilizing him while you can, as his price is bound to continue climbing over the coming weeks.
Anthony Davis‘ minutes are down, because well, he’s Anthony Davis. He once again exited a game early this past week with a back bruise after diving into the stands. The upside is there, but his constant early exits and high price tag make it tough to trust him in cash games right now.
