The importance of minutes played in relation to fantasy production has been debated and discussed plenty over the past few years. While an uptick in minutes is certainly a good thing for a player’s chances at producing additional fantasy stats, the extent of the impact that is felt by a change in minutes varies greatly from player to player.
Certain players have a strong correlation between an increase in minutes and fantasy points, while others may see a minimal increase in fantasy production when given a few extra minutes per game. Looking even deeper, an increase in minutes can be more meaningful from player to player based more on the team that they play for than the player themselves.
For example, a four-minute increase per game could be extremely meaningful for a player on a team that plays at a fast pace and has a greater amount of possessions each game, while that same four minutes may not produce a noticeable impact on the fantasy production of a player on a slower-paced team – give this article a read if you’re looking to dig into this idea further.
Taking all of this into account, any time we see a player receive a change in playing time over a stretch longer than a game or two, we should be taking note. Each week in the space below I’ll take a look at a few players that have had a noticeable change in playing time – whether positive or negative – throughout the past week or two. I’ll attempt to flesh out the reason(s) behind the change, determine if this change has been correlating into an increase or decrease in fantasy production and how long we can expect this change in playing time to continue.
In addition to this, I’ll go through the leaders in minutes by position, based upon DraftKings player position eligibility, and examine what these huge minute totals mean for some of the league leaders at each position.
The Good
Rodney Hood
Hood has been a constant tease over the early part of the season. A talented scorer on a team lacking many other viable scoring options, it seemed a breakout was always imminent. Despite this, he was only managing to exceed his implied point total 53% of the time. With Alec Burks (and recently Derek Favors) out of the lineup, the second-year pro has finally taken advantage of his opportunity. Hood has seen an increase of four minutes per game over his previous five games and also had his usage rate increase by 2.15%. This increase in not only minutes but usage has correlated into a bump in his scoring and assists, as the Jazz have relied upon him more for offensive production. As we can see below, he’s been able to string together some nice games of late, returning value in seven of his last 10.
Burks’ extended absence should allow Hood to continue playing increased minutes in the near future. We will however need to monitor his usage once Favors is able to return to the lineup to determine if that will deter his increased responsibilities within this offense.
The Bad
Jahlil Okafor
Okafor’s once intriguing rookie season appears to be spiraling downwards quickly. His two-game injury absence coinciding with the arrival of Ish Smith has appeared to spell doom for his fantasy value.
Nerlens Noel has proven to be far more productive as a pair and this coaching staff has noticed – Okafor and Smith have played 39 total minutes together as compared to the 142 minutes Noel and Smith have played. The 76ers experimented with starting both big men recently, but that still only resulted in 20 minutes for Okafor. It may actually be in his favor to move back to a bench role, as his playing style doesn’t clearly doesn’t gel with Smith or Noel – he is averaging 0.87 DK points per minute when on the court with Noel as opposed to 1.05 when Noel is off the court.
Regardless of whether he moves back to the bench or remains in the starting lineup, Okafor appears to be a player that benefits from increased playing time. In the 11 games he’s played less than 30 minutes this season, he’s averaging 0.93 DK points per minute; in the 22 games he’s played 30 or more minutes he’s upped that to 1.05 DK pointes per minute.
It’s possible that Okafor’s price will come down sufficiently and he’ll find a way to gel with Noel and Smith over the coming weeks, but until we see further evidence, he’s a player I’m likely to avoid for the time being.
The Minutes Leaders
Not that you need to be reminded, but Draymond Green has been playing out of his mind of late. We’ve also seen him creep into the minutes leaders at power forward this week. The Warriors players always have concerns regarding blowouts and playing time, but Green has actually only dipped below the 30 minute mark on four occasions. Anytime you can target him in what should be a competitive game, you’d be wise to do so. Using our Trends tool, we can query for all games this season that Green has been projected for at least 35 minutes (generally games that we would expect the Warriors to not be able to blowout an opponent).
Even as his price rises, it’s difficult to argue with an average of over 45 DK points and the ever-present potential for a triple-double.
Brook Lopez has seen a slight bump in playing time of late and has been producing at an elite level. The Nets are a volatile team to target, but if Lopez can continue rebounding at his recent rate, he’ll deserve consideration on a nightly basis.
