The importance of minutes played in relation to fantasy production has been debated and discussed plenty over the past few years. While an uptick in minutes is certainly a good thing for a player’s chances at producing additional fantasy stats, the extent of the impact that is felt by a change in minutes varies greatly from player to player.
Certain players have a strong correlation between an increase in minutes and fantasy points, while others may see a minimal increase in fantasy production when given a few extra minutes per game. Looking even deeper, an increase in minutes can be more meaningful from player to player based more on the team that they play for than the player themselves.
For example, a four-minute increase per game could be extremely meaningful for a player on a team that plays at a fast pace and has a greater amount of possessions each game, while that same four minutes may not produce a noticeable impact on the fantasy production of a player on a slower-paced team – give this article a read if you’re looking to dig into this idea further.
Taking all of this into account, any time we see a player receive a change in playing time over a stretch longer than a game or two, we should be taking note. Each week in the space below I’ll take a look at a few players that have had a noticeable change in playing time – whether positive or negative – throughout the past week or two. I’ll attempt to flesh out the reason(s) behind the change, determine if this change has been correlating into an increase or decrease in fantasy production, and how long we can expect this change in playing time to continue.
In addition to this, I’ll go through the leaders in minutes by position – based upon DraftKings player position eligibility – and examine what these huge minute totals mean for some of the league leaders at each position.
The Good
Taj Gibson
Re-emerging as a solid value option on a nightly basis of late, it’s no surprise to see Gibson’s rise in production coincide with his recent bump in playing time. While his recent insertion into the starting lineup offered a slight bump in minutes, it was Joakim Noah’s injury and absence from the lineup that has finally offered him the consistent playing time needed to make him a viable cash game option. Over the last couple of seasons, the veteran has proven to be a great value whenever we project him for at least 30 minutes – a figure that he has yet to fall below since Noah went down with injury four games ago.
In the six games that Gibson has eclipsed the 30-minute mark this season, he has averaged 30.48 DK points. Over these six games, he’s managed to accumulate four of the six double digit rebound games he has posted this year. A gifted rebounder, his totals have suffered with his playing time in a constant state of flux this season. When the playing time is there, he’s a constant threat to accumulate not only rebounds, but blocks and steals as well.
Gibson’s situation is one that needs to be monitored closely. With Noah not expected back for another 1-3 weeks, his immediate value should be safe – assuming his salary doesn’t continue to increase dramatically. Recent reports have both Noah and himself on the trading block though (an annual tradition at this point). Should we see Noah be shipped off, it could mean his current increased role would become more permanent. And obviously if we see Gibson dealt, the entire situation would need to be re-assessed. For the time being, continue to utilize him if you’re in need of a budget option at the power forward position.
The Bad
Robert Covington
Covington’s early season breakout lead to him being featured as The Good in the very first volume of Monitoring the Minutes. Proof that the NBA game is an ever-evolving beast, only four weeks later, we find him here.
Over a twelve-game stretch, the young forward averaged over 32 minutes per game on his way to a 35.6 DK point average. This string of games lead to a corresponding price increase, which has made him essentially unplayable.
Covington was certainly a candidate for some regression, but the biggest culprit has been his diminishing role on this struggling team. His ineffective play and the return of injured teammates have likely both had a hand in his decreased court time over the past 11 games. As a decent portion of his scoring had come from the accumulation of peripherals such as steals, rebounds and blocks, the lack of playing time makes Covington a risky play on a nightly basis, even as his price continues to fall.
The Minute Leaders
John Wall moves into the top three at point guard, as he’s seen a surge in playing time and production with the Wizards decimated by injuries lately. His price has risen, but he’s still been able to hit his implied point total nine out of his last ten games. This team revolves around him, so any additional court time should only help to increase his rising value.
James Harden still leads the pack at shooting guard, but his minutes (and production) have become more volatile of late. He’s still an elite option capable of going off at any time, but his premium price has caused him to hit his implied point total only twice over the previous ten games.
