The importance of minutes played in relation to fantasy production has been debated and discussed plenty over the past few years. While an uptick in minutes is certainly a good thing for a player’s chances at producing additional fantasy stats, the extent of the impact that is felt by a change in minutes varies greatly from player to player.
Certain players have a strong correlation between an increase in minutes and fantasy points, while others may see a minimal increase in fantasy production when given a few extra minutes per game. Looking even deeper, an increase in minutes can be more meaningful from player to player based more on the team that they play for than the player themselves.
For example, a four-minute increase per game could be extremely meaningful for a player on a team that plays at a fast pace and has a greater amount of possessions each game, while that same four minutes may not produce a noticeable impact on the fantasy production of a player on a slower-paced team – give this article a read if you’re looking to dig into this idea further.
Taking all of this into account, any time we see a player receive a change in playing time over a stretch longer than a game or two, we should be taking note. Each week in the space below I’ll take a look at a few players that have had a noticeable change in playing time – whether positive or negative – throughout the past week or two. I’ll attempt to flesh out the reason(s) behind the change, determine if this change has been correlating into an increase or decrease in fantasy production and how long we can expect this change in playing time to continue.
In addition to this, I’ll go through the leaders in minutes by position, based upon DraftKings player position eligibility, and examine what these huge minute totals mean for some of the league leaders at each position.
The Good
Aaron Gordon
So, we’re all in agreement Gordon was robbed, right?
At least as a consolation prize, he’ll now be able to reap the benefits of Tobias Harris being shipped off to Detroit in what should result in some additional playing time and usage. And for a kid as talented as Gordon, we need to take notice.
After falling victim to Scott Skiles’ ridiculous rotations and head games earlier in the season, Gordon has actually played fairly steady minutes of late, averaging 30.1 minutes per game over his previous eight. With Harris out of the picture, Gordon’s role should only continue to solidify on this team.
With Ersan Ilyasova now around to steal some playing time, it’s not as if Gordon will instantly start averaging 34 or 35 minutes a night, but his minutes be fairly consistent. If we turn to our Trends tool, we can take a look at how Gordon has performed this season when we’ve projected him to play at least 27 minutes per game (which he should reasonably be projected for most nights moving forward).
As a comparison, let’s look at how Gordon had been performing when projected to play between 20 and 26.9 minutes.
And yes, you could argue that his price has risen along with the increased playing time and production. But honestly, it hasn’t done very much to deter his ability to provide a consistent return on investment.
If the minutes are there, Gordon is more than capable of continuing to perform in the coming weeks.
The Bad
Michael Carter-Williams
Carter-Williams has now been under 28 minutes played in four of his previous six games, averaging a disappointing 26.5 minutes per game over that stretch. His ceiling is still there – he posted four 30-plus DK point games, including a 48.25 outing over these six games – but his floor is just too low for cash games right now – he went for 11.5 and 15.75 DK points in the remaining two games.
The sporadic playing time he’s receiving just makes it difficult to trust MCW as more than a tournament play at this point and our Trends tool offers us the perfect way to visualize just how bad his splits have been.
When we’ve projected Carter-Williams to play at least 30 minutes, he’s actually been fairly reliable, sporting a solid 65.5% Consistency Rating.
Now let’s compare that to the games in which we’ve projected him for less than 30 minutes.
Yeah, that 40% Consistency Rating is pretty gross. And that -1.65 Plus/Minus isn’t much better.
Carter-Williams derives much of his value from compiling peripheral stats – his highest scoring night is only 19 in his previous 15 games – and with reduced playing time, it’s going to be difficult to count on those consistently moving forward. The ceiling is still there and his ownership level will likely be down as he’s been banished to a bench role at the moment, but take a wait-and-see approach if you’re looking his direction in cash games.
The Minute Leaders
I’m not sure how this has occurred, but Anthony Davis has now compiled at least 30 minutes in his previous eight games. Now that I’ve said that, I’m sure he’ll fall into a camera or something random soon, but it’s worth noting that he has had some nice games of late.
Gordon Hayward isn’t a sexy name and with Utah’s constant low over/unders, it’s tough to feel overly confident about using him too often, but he’s been extremely consistent this season. In fact, he’s second among small forwards that have at least 10 games of DK eligibility at the position this season.
