The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position and looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs Sacramento Kings – $11,800 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
One of the biggest pricing differences between sites is with Warriors star Stephen Curry, who recorded a negative Plus/Minus in nine-straight games. DraftKings makes it nearly impossible to get to Curry tonight. However, on FanDuel Curry has a 98% Bargain Rating as he is priced under $10,000.
This matchup for Curry and the Warriors is fantastic. The Kings rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season and fifth in Pace. They have given up 114.4 points per game which is the second highest in the league. The Warriors will be without Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins due to the Covid protocols. Using our On/Off tool, Curry has played a team-high 301 minutes without Poole and Wiggins on the floor and has an increased usage rate of +4.1%.
Top Value: Coby White vs. Houston Rockets – $3,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
After recommending Curry on FanDuel, I strongly recommend playing Coby White on DraftKings where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. Our model has White with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate where he is projected to play 24 minutes. After missing five-straight games due to the Covid protocols, White played 24 minutes last night against the Lakers and was pretty disappointing. He only had five points while shooting 2-7 from the field.
For the season it has been a struggle for White to get going. He was injured early on and then slowly eased into the rotation as the Bulls are absolutely loaded with guards. White has only recorded one positive Plus/Minus game in his 10 games played. That one game he had 20 points and 30.5 DraftKings points. The upside is there.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Charlotte Hornets – $9,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Donovan Mitchell is my favorite play on the slate tonight. The Utah Jazz are hosting the Charlotte Hornets and have an implied total of 124 points, which is just absurd. That is one of the highest totals we have seen all season. The Jazz are 12-point home favorites and the game total is a slate-high 236 points!
The Hornets rank dead last in Defensive Rating this season and fourth in Pace. They have given up 116.6 points per game which is also the worst in the league. Mitchell hasn’t scored under 20 points in 10 straight games. During that time he has averaged 29.2 points per game while shooting 53.2% from the field and 40.2% from downtown. Mitchell ranks fifth in the league in usage rate with 33.4%. He should be able to absolutely torch the Hornets.
Mitchell is priced down on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Josh Christopher at Chicago Bulls – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Despite having a 3-13 road record, the Rockets are “only” 7-point underdogs on the road tonight. That is the third lowest spread on the slate that is filled with potential blowouts. Regardless if the game is close or not, Josh Christopher should get some solid run. He is projected to play 25 minutes tonight and he has played 27 or more minutes in each of his last three games. Christopher has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games.
The Rockets are still without Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr., and Armoni Brooks is questionable to play tonight, as well. Using our On/Off tool, Christopher has a +10.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus with all three off of the floor this season. He has a +6.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Green and Porter Jr. off the floor and they are already ruled out. The matchup isn’t that ideal, but the rookie from Arizona State is too cheap for his upside tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at Utah Jazz – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
It has been a little while since Miles Bridges has been mentioned in this article, but I think he is in a great spot tonight. I want to target a Charlotte Hornets player in this crazy high total and Bridges stuck out the most to me. He leads the Hornets in minutes, playing 36.6 per game. The next closest is Gordon Hayward with 33.9 minutes per game.
I really think Bridges and the Hornets can stay in this game due to their transition offense. They are tied for the league lead in both transition possessions and transitions points per game. The Jazz allow the eighth most points in transition and their opponents to shoot 55.7% in transition, which is the second-highest mark in the league. Bridges is tied for 12th in most field goals made within five feet of the basket. He should get plenty of easy buckets tonight.
Note: If Jayson Tatum and/or Dennis Schroder is out for the Celtics, I prefer Jaylen Brown as the top ceiling small forward. He is way too cheap on FanDuel where he has a 98% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Buddy Hield at Golden State Warriors – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
If you open up our model it will be impossible to ignore Buddy Hield. He is the highest rated player on DraftKings while also having the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He has a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is projected to play 36 minutes. That may even been on the conservative side as Hield played 40 minutes in their last game.
The Kings are getting hit hard with the Covid protocols right now. De’Aaron Fox, Terence Davis, and Davion Mitchell are all out. Hield started last game and I expect him to start once again tonight. The Warriors lead the league in Defensive Rating and are tied for the least points allowed at 101.1 per game. This matchup is very difficult, but Hield will be asked to do most of the heavy lifting to try and keep the Kings in this one.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Houston Rockets – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
DeMar DeRozan went for 38 points, four rebounds and six assists against the Lakers last night. I am going right back to the well tonight against the Rockets. DeRozan went 16-17 from the charity stripe last night and had a 40.4% usage rate! He finished with 52.5 DraftKings points. Not having Zach LaVine in the lineup has boosted his production.
Seeing DeRozan play 34 minutes while getting up 24 field goal attempts last night has me giddy to see what he can do tonight against this Rockets team. The Rockets rank 25th in Defensive Rating and have given up 112.9 points per game which is the third highest in the league. They also play at the second fastest Pace. Using our On/Off tool, DeRozan has a +6.7% usage rate and a +6.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus with LaVine off of the floor this season. The Bulls are nearly double digit favorites tonight, but DeRozan makes for one of the safest pay-up options on the slate.
Note: DeMar DeRozan is SG/SF eligible on FanDuel.
Top Value: Chimezie Metu at Golden State Warriors – $4,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The Sacramento Kings love to mix up their starting lineup based on matchups. However, with so many players out due to the Covid protocols, changing things up is tough to do. Chimezie Metu should remain in the starting lineup whether Richaun Holmes is back from his injury or not. Be sure to monitor the Kings starting lineup though.
Our model for DraftKings has Metu with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate at +12.44 and he is projected to play 36 minutes. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his last 18 games. He has been very consistent when he plays, but the Kings will randomly sit him due to matchup reasons. If he is in the starting lineup, he is a lock and load play on DraftKings despite the tough matchup.
Note: Chimezie Metu is only C eligible on FanDuel which makes him tougher to roster.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert vs. Charlotte Hornets – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
I would much rather take the savings on Rudy Gobert tonight than pay up for Joel Embiid, who is questionable to play and has seen a major price hike. I love the idea of pairing Gobert and Donovan Mitchell tonight. Gobert continues to lead the league in rebounds with 14.8 per game and is second in blocks with 2.3 per game. He has recorded at least one block in every game but three this season and has a double-double in every game but six.
The Charlotte Hornets have gotten Mason Plumlee back from injury, but they still have a pretty undersized frontcourt. They have allowed 47.6 rebounds per game which is the second most in the league. The Hornets have also allowed 48.3 points per game in the paint this season which is the fifth most. Gobert is a near lock to double-double in this matchup and he has the upside for another multi-block performance.
Top Value: Robert Williams vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The highest rated center in our model tonight on DraftKings is Robert Williams. The Boston Celtics will be without Al Horford, Grant Williams, and Josh Richardson. As I mentioned earlier Tatum and Schroder are questionable. The Celtics could be very limited tonight. On the other side of the ball Joel Embiid is questionable while Andre Drummond is out. If things fall correctly, Williams could be one of the best plays on the entire slate.
With all three of Horford, Williams, and Richardson off the floor this season, Williams has played 154 minutes and has a team-high +13.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Williams is in the middle of a breakout season. He is averaging a career-high in points, field goal percentage, and rebounds. He has yet to have a season where he has shot under 70% from the field. Playing against Embiid is tough, but if he sits, Williams will dominate the 76ers frontcourt.
