The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Toronto Raptors – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Irving has the highest ceiling projection of any PG on the slate in his favorable matchup against the Pacers. According to our Vegas Dashboard, the Nets have the highest implied team total of the day by two full points.
Kyrie has exceeded salary expectations on FanDuel in five straight games, with two of those games counting as “upside” performances. He has scored at least 27 points in each of those contests, highlighted by a 39-point performance last Thursday against the Mavericks. Over that five-game stretch, he averaged 33.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 52.6 FanDuel points per game.
Irving has the highest median projection of all the PGs on the slate on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He matches six Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Reggie Jackson vs. Houston Rockets – $5,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
One of the top situations to monitor throughout the day is the availability of Ja Morant, who is questionable for the Grizzlies’ game in Utah with the same illness that sidelined him Saturday for the first game of this two-game set. If Morant is out, Tyus Jones will be a great play. Assuming Morant plays, Jackson makes a great pivot as a value play with plenty of upside.
Jackson was limited earlier this season with a groin injury but has started every game for the Clippers. He has averaged 10.0 points, 4.0 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 19.8 FanDuel points over his past five games and exceeded salary expectations on FanDuel in three straight. He hasn’t been shooting the ball well this season, but there’s a lot of room for him to have a big game if his shots start dropping.
In this matchup against the Rockets, Jackson’s team will again be without Kahwi Leonard (knee) and probably John Wall (rest), and Robert Covington (concussion). He should get a nice usage bump as a result, and the volume should pay off against the Rockets, who allow more DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards than any other team in the NBA.
Jackson has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any PG on FanDuel and the third-highest mark of any player on the slate. On DraftKings, where he’s not quite as cheap, he has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus of any PG on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Houston Rockets – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Jackson isn’t the only Clipper who gets a boost from this juicy matchup against the Rockets, who rank fifth in the NBA in pace and fifth-worst in Defensive Rating. As a result of the Rockets’ struggles to slow down opponents and the absence of Kawhi, George has the highest ceiling projection of all SG on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only Kyrie.
According to our On/Off Tool, without Kawhi and John Wall on the floor, George leads the team with a 32.9% usage rate while producing 1.31 DraftKings points per minute.
He’ll be looking to bounce back from two sub-par shooting games and only ended up playing 28 minutes in a blowout loss on Sunday to the Pelicans. George did have a 40-point game earlier this season against the Kings, resulting in 62 DraftKings points and 61.2 FanDuel points. This is a similar smash spot and a good “get right” game for the Clippers, at least on the offensive end.
George matches 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, tied for the most among all the SG on the slate. Due to his cheaper salary on FanDuel, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any player at any position on the slate.
Top Value: Terance Mann vs. Houston Rockets – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Don’t worry, this is the last Clipper highlighted in this piece. If Wall is out as expected, Mann’s potential is too good to overlook at his affordable salary. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any SG on DraftKings and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all players on the slate on FanDuel.
Mann has started the Clippers’ last three games, averaging 7.0 points and 5.0 rebounds. He had a near double-double with nine points and nine rebounds in one of those contests.
Mann is projected for the most points per salary at SG on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s projected to log over 30 minutes. The 26-year-old hasn’t had a monster game yet this season but has shown he can step up with big games in the right situation. This sets up as that kind of situation, so take a shot on him if you’re going cheap at SG. He also brings roster flexibility with PG eligibility on DraftKings and SF eligibility on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane at Utah Jazz – $7,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Bane is off to a great start to the season, and he is a strong option to consider with or without Ja in the lineup for the Grizz in their second matchup in Utah. Without Morant on Saturday, Bane dropped 32 points with six rebounds en route to 45.5 DraftKings points. His big game wasn’t just a result of Morant’s absence, though, since it was his third straight contest with over 30 points and over 45 DraftKings points. Bane has shown he can score points in bunches with at least 11 made shots in each of those three games, and he still chips in solid rebounds and assists as well.
Even with the assumption that Ja plays, Bane has the fourth-highest ceiling projection at SF on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. Getting an elite ceiling for under $8K can be crucial to the rest of your lineup construction. The 24-year-old from TCU looks ready to take another big leap in Year 3, and his emergence will make the Grizzlies an even stronger contender down the stretch.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Oubre and Gordon Hayward have each helped fill in the gaps for the Hornets in the early going this season and have a favorable matchup on this slate against the Kings. LaMelo Ball (ankle) is out, while Terry Rozier (ankle) and Cody Martin (quad) are doubtful. Since Dennis Smith Jr. has been a bit of a letdown as the fill-in PG, Oubre and Hayward have picked up more playmaking work in the four games since Rozier’s injury. Both are good plays, but Oubre has a higher ceiling projection and is slightly cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
In the four games since Rozier’s injury, Oubre has posted at least 30 FanDuel points in three games while averaging 17.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. Oubre had a season-high five assists in the Hornets’ win on Saturday over the Warriors and will look to continue that success Monday.
Oubre has the third-highest ceiling projection of all SF under $10K on DraftKings and the fourth-highest ceiling projection of that group on FanDuel. Of all players under $6.5K, he has the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both FanDuel and DraftKings, matching eight Pro Trends on FanDuel and six on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo vs. Detroit Pistons – $12,500 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
For as long as Khris Middleton (wrist) is out, Giannis seems locked into the highest ceiling every time he’s on the slate. He has averaged an impressive 65.5 DraftKings points in his five games this season, which is more than 12 points per game higher than any other player on the slate. Trae Young, Kevin Durant, Pascal Siakam, and Ja Morant have all had good fantasy starts to the year, but none can even get within 10 fantasy points per game of where Giannis has been on just an average night.
Antetokoumpo has produced a spectacular 1.89 DraftKings points and 1.83 FanDuel points per minute so far this season. He has posted a 35.8% usage rate while carrying Milwaukee to a 5-0 start, averaging 34.4 points, 14.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.6 blocks in 34.4 minutes per game.
Giannis has at least 64 DraftKings points in four straight games and has a double-double in every game this season. He fell just one assist short of a triple-double on Friday against the Knicks and then scored 34 points with 17 rebounds in Saturday’s win over the Hawks.
His ceiling projection is the highest on the slate by almost 10 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His early-season production has widened the gap between him and the other elite players, and he’s always worth considering spending up for due to his remarkable reliability and soaring ceiling.
Top Value: Jalen Smith at Brooklyn Nets – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Smith has the highest projected Plus/Minus at PF on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he has exceeded his expected points in 71% of his games this season. In a matchup against the Nets, who seem to have an aversion to playing defense, a high-energy player like Smith should be able to excel and put up a big night. Brooklyn has struggled against power forwards, allowing the most DraftKings points per game to the position.
After joining the Pacers from Phoenix at the trade deadline last season, Smith has gotten a chance to show his upside. He has started all seven games this season for Indiana and produced over 25 DraftKings points in four of his five most recent contests. In those five games, Smith has averaged 14.8 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, and 1.0 assists for 33.5 DraftKings points per game.
Smith seems to play better with Myles Turner at center instead of Isaiah Jackson, so the return of Turner in this game should boost his value a little bit, even though it does make the Pacers’ frontcourt a little more crowded.
Center
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam – $8,900 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
I was a huge fan of Spicy P coming into the season and have as many shares as possible across all formats. So far, the 28-year-old has been outstanding and looks ready to take his game to the next level. He is in a good spot in this contest against the Hawks since the Raptors have the highest Pace Differential on the slate, meaning there should be more possessions, opportunities, and production for Toronto in this game than in a typical matchup.
Siakam has at least 20 points in each of his six games this year and is averaging a robust 25.3 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists for 50.6 DraftKings points per contest. He has produced 1.3 FanDuel points and 1.38 DraftKings points per minute to this point in the season, ranking him in the top three at the position on both sites.
Siakam matches a whopping 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, more than any other player on the slate, and he’s tied for the most Pro Trends on FanDuel with 13. On FanDuel, only Joel Embiid (illness, questionable) has a higher ceiling and median projections at center, and only Giannis and Embiid have higher ceiling and median projections at the position on DraftKings.
Top Value: Myles Turner at Brooklyn Nets – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, where his salary is under $6K, Turner leaps out of the model as a great play on Monday night against the Nets. Turner did not play on Saturday, but there was no specific injury, just “injury management.” As a result, he should be ready to return to a full workload.
In his last game on Friday, Turner went off for 27 points, 10 rebounds, five blocks, two assists, and 54.5 DraftKings points. He brings an elite ceiling and great value when he’s in the lineup at full strength.
He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all centers on DraftKings and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate. Since he costs a little more on FanDuel, there’s slightly less value to be had, but he still has the second-highest ceiling projection and the second-highest median projection of all players under $7K.
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