The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
I am going all the way to the top with my favorite point guard play on the slate tonight with Luka Doncic. He feels by far the safest of the options and the ceiling for a big game against the New Orleans Pelicans is firmly in play. Doncic is second in the league in usage rate this season with 35.4%. Facing the Pelicans provides plenty of opportunities to stuff the stat sheet as they rank 28th this season in Defensive Rating. The Mavericks are currently 9-point favorites.
I actually prefer Doncic when Kristaps Porzingis is on the floor and I have the stats to back that up. Doncic is averaging 2.0 more points per game, 4.4 more rebounds per game, and 1.6 more assists per game with Porzingis on the floor, despite having a lower usage rate. The spacing Porzingis provides on the floor allows Doncic free reign in the paint and forces opponents to stay close to Porzingis who is known for being a lethal shooter even though he is off to a slow start this year.
Top Value: Gary Payton II vs. Atlanta Hawks – $3,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
After recommending Gary Payton II last night, I am going to recommend him again tonight. His salary decreased by $100 on DraftKings, while it stayed the same on FanDuel. This still feels like a much stronger DraftKings play as Payton has a 98% Bargain Rating. It is obvious now after three straight games that Payton has firmly entered the Warriors rotation.
Payton played a season-high 20 minutes last night and did not disappoint, providing the team with 10 points, three rebounds, three assists, and four steals. That makes it an average of 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in his last three games. Payton is unlikely to get any blowout run in this matchup with the Warriors being a 3-point favorite at home. However, he doesn’t need that to hit this price tag, especially in this matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. There will be many times where he is assigned to guard Trae Young tonight. It’s time to start playing this explosive guard before his price gets out of control.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Brooklyn Nets – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
One of the safest cash game options lately has been Zach LaVine for the Chicago Bulls. He has over 40 DraftKings points in four straight games. During that stretch, he has averaged 27.8 points per game on 22.3 field goal attempts per game. He leads the Bulls in usage rate with 31.4%, field goal attempts and minutes played. I do prefer LaVine more on FanDuel at his $8,000 salary where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. He seems very safe at that salary again tonight.
The Brooklyn Nets prevent a more difficult matchup tonight as they rank sixth in Defensive Rating. They also seem to prevent 3-pointers being made at a pretty solid rate as well. However, given this much of a green light and opportunity, LaVine can pay off his price tag on volume alone. He has also had back-to-back games grabbing nine rebounds. If he somehow sneaks into a double-double tonight we could be looking at a monster ceiling game at a great price tonight.
Top Value: Furkan Korkmaz vs. New York Knicks – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Sifting through which Philadelphia 76ers to play tonight has been a little difficult, especially with their prices rising. The 76ers still have plenty of injuries and players sitting out due to Covid. Among the list are Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle, and Isaiah Joe. Danny Green is listed as questionable while Ben Simmons is still out of the picture. All in all, I landed on Furkan Korkmaz who I still think can provide value tonight, especially on FanDuel where he has an 83% Bargain Rating.
Another reason I wasn’t all that interested in the 76ers tonight as I have been the past few nights is due to this matchup against the New York Knicks. This game has the second lowest over/under on the slate at 212 points. Both teams rank in the bottom five in Pace this season with the 76ers coming in dead last. I think Korkmaz could be sneaky tonight mainly due to his outside shooting. The Knicks have allowed the second most 3-point attempts and the third most 3-pointers made this season. That should be music to Korkmaz’s ears as he is coming off of seven made 3-pointers in his last game.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Chicago Bulls – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
For some reason the price tag on Kevin Durant dropped below $10,000 on DraftKings for the first time in over two weeks. I’m not sure why that is exactly, but Durant has a 79% Bargain Rating on DraftKings tonight, making him one of the best spend up options on the slate. The Nets have won five straight games and Durant’s efficiency has been off the charts. He is shooting a career-high 56.9% from the field and has yet to score below 20 points all season averaging 28.3 per game.
Even though James Harden provides a little more from the peripherals side, I still prefer Durant on DraftKings. However, on FanDuel it’s a little different story where Harden is $900 cheaper and comes in at an 89% Bargain Rating. Durant has a 32.4% usage rate this season, while Harden only has a 27.2% usage rate. The matchup against the Bulls isn’t all that great as the Bulls have the seventh-best Defensive Rating this season. However, Durant usually thrives in these types of atmospheres.
Top Value: Will Barton vs. Miami Heat – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
It was a difficult decision choosing between Will Barton and Aaron Gordon. I don’t really want to play both due to this matchup against the Miami Heat, but I know they both will look good with Michael Porter Jr. not in the lineup tonight. I have decided to go with Barton who should have the ball in his hands more often. The minutes with Barton over Gordon is also a big reason why I like him more. Barton leads the team in minutes with 33.0 per game, while Gordon has 29.1 per game.
I’m not a big fan of loading up on these Nuggets players mainly because this game has by far the lowest over/under on the slate at just 205 points. Both teams are top four in Defensive Rating this season, while the Miami Heat play at the third slowest Pace. Behind Nikola Jokic, it is Barton who has the second highest usage rate on the team with 21.5%. Pick your favorite between Barton and Gordon, but don’t get carried away with playing both in this matchup against the Heat.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs Charlotte Hornets – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Ahhh shoot, here we go again. Anthony Davis is the top ceiling power forward on the slate tonight and if he plays could easily be the top spend-up option. I say if he plays because Davis is made out of glass. He is questionable tonight due to a finger issue. He left last game due to an “illness”. I don’t know, he’s impossible to predict. Make sure to monitor the news on Davis in our news dashboard if he is suiting up tonight. If he misses, fire up DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard.
The worst part about this play is that the Los Angeles Lakers play at 10:30 p.m. ET, which is the last game on the slate and I’m sure Davis will come in as a game-time decision. If that is the case, I would keep Davis as a tournament-only option. LeBron James is out tonight and Davis has increased his usage rate, points, and rebounds with James off the court this season. You know what else is troublesome? The Hornets rank last in Defensive Rating and have given up the most points per game this season with 117.4. They are small in the front court and stink at rebounding.
If you can stomach the play, Davis is in a fantastic matchup tonight and makes for an incredible tournament option.
Top Value: Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Back at it with more Jaren Jackson Jr. who still remains too cheap, especially on DraftKings where he has a 75% Bargain Rating. If he can stay out of foul trouble he can easily out perform this salary. It will likely be Steven Adams on Karl-Anthony Towns down low, which should free up Jackson Jr. from foul trouble, but you never know with him. One benefit to being a reckless shot blocker who obviously fouls from time to time, is that he leads the team with 1.8 blocks per game.
After a hot start the Minnesota Timberwolves have lost four straight games and their defense has also come back to earth. They have allowed the most rebounds to their opponents in the league with 50.1 per game and also lead the league in most offensive rebounds given up by a wide margin at 13.1 per game. Jackson Jr. has yet to get a double-double all season. He has back-to-back games of nine and eight rebounds. That changes tonight. He gets his first double-double of the season.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jonas Valanciunas at Dallas Mavericks – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
There haven’t been many centers who have been as consistent as Jonas Valanciunas. He has finished with a double-double in eight consecutive games. Valanciunas is averaging 19.3 points per game and 14.2 rebounds per game. He is second in the league in rebounds this season. Those numbers along with his 33.5 minutes per game are all career highs.
He is averaging 45.0 DraftKings points per game and I really like the matchup against the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Mavericks rank 27th this season in defensive rebounds allowed. In their last three games they have allowed the second most points in the paint with 56.0 points per game. Brandon Ingram is questionable to play tonight and he has missed the last four games due to injury. Valanciunas has scored 2.8 more points per game and has a 3.7% higher usage rate without Ingram on the court this season. Monitor the news on Ingram tonight, but I like Valanciunas regardless on if he plays.
Top Value: Frank Kaminsky at Sacramento Kings – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
With Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton out tonight due to injury, the Suns will look to backups Frank Kaminsky and JaVale McGee. More than likely McGee will start again at center, but Kaminsky has shown to be the better play between the two. In the two games that Ayton missed, Kaminsky averaged 16.5 points per game on 28.5 minutes per game. He has scored over 30 DraftKings points in both games. Sitting at $4,300 on both sites, Kaminsky makes for a great value tonight.
The Sacramento Kings are coming off of a back-to-back after losing to the Indiana Pacers. Meanwhile the Suns are fully rested after winning four straight games. The Kings rank 28th in defensive rebounding percentage and 26th in total rebounding percentage. The provides a little extra safety with Kaminsky tonight, in case he isn’t hitting his shots. The best part about playing Kaminsky over McGee is that he provides multi-position eligibility, while McGee is only center eligible.
