The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Orlando Magic – $10,000 DraftKings
LaMelo Ball is coming off his best game of his career. On Saturday night, the versatile guard finished with 50 points, 10 assists, five rebounds, and 75.75 DraftKings points. It was not just the last game. Ball has had an incredible season, averaging over 30 points per game for the first time in his career. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games and is still only $10,000.
The Hornets have not been good this season, but they have fully unleashed Ball’s potential. He is leading the league in usage rate at 38.5% and has 10 games scoring over 30 points to pair with three double-doubles. Regardless of the opponent, Ball has been able to produce a ceiling worth getting exposure to. The Magic have the second-lowest team total on the slate at 103.75 points, but Ball has the second-highest projected ceiling, proving that he is matchup-proof.
Top Value: Jaden Ivey vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,800 DraftKings
Cade Cunningham is doubtful to play tonight, which will open the door for more production and usage with Jaden Ivey. When Cunningham is off the floor this season, Ivey is leading the team with a +6.72% usage rate and a +7.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). In his third year in the league, Ivey is second on the Pistons in scoring behind Cunningham, posting a career-high 18.1 points per game.
Despite playing at a league-average pace, the Raptors have been an exploitable defense. They rank 24th in defensive rating and are allowing 118.8 points per game. The Pistons have lost three-straight games but are five-point home favorites, implied for 113.75 points tonight. Ivey leads the entire seven-game slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership. He is the best mid-range option.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Atlanta Hawks – $9,700 DraftKings
Another player who will benefit due to an injury is Mavericks’ combo guard Kyrie Irving. Luka Doncic has been out the past two games and will be re-evaluated later in the week. Irving has not seen an increase in his production the last two games without Doncic in the lineup, but the matchups were also very difficult playing on the road against the Heat and Nuggets. Playing the Hawks is a much better spot for Irving.
This Mavericks-Hawks matchup has the highest game total on the slate at 237.5 points. The Mavericks are slight road underdogs, but the Hawks currently rank second in pace and 22nd in defensive rating this season. With a projected 30% usage rate, this is an incredible bounce-back spot for Irving tonight. Even at his elevated price tag, Irving has the potential for a ceiling performance against the Hawks without Doncic.
Top Value: Malik Beasley vs. Toronto Raptors – $5,400 DraftKings
Veteran shooting guard Malik Beasley has been a great addition to the young Pistons team. He has posted a DraftKings Plus/Minus in nine consecutive games while averaging 20.6 points per game during that time. Over 70% of his field goal attempts in that stretch have come from behind the arc. Beasley is averaging 11.1 3-point attempts per game in his last nine games. He is not afraid to let it fly from deep.
The Raptors rank middle-of-the-pack in 3-pointers allowed per game this season, while opponents are shooting 34.3% from long distance. Given how well Beasley has played recently, this is a great spot for the journeyman shooting guard. Beasley has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus and is a fantastic value play at $5,400. He also has guard and forward eligibility making it easy to fit him into all lineup builds.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner at Charlotte Hornets – $9,600 DraftKings
The Magic have won eight of their last nine games and the emergence of Franz Wagner has been the main reason why. With Paolo Banchero still sidelined due to injury, Wagner has led the Magic in points, assists, and steals per game. His peripherals are up, and this is a great matchup for a ceiling performance. During that nine game stretch, Wagner is averaging 28.3 points per game with five 30-point games.
The Hornets continue to be a positive matchup for opposing players. In their last meeting, Wagner scored 32 points while shooting 14-for-25 from the field and posted a 37.8% usage rate. At $9,600, Wagner is in the running for one of the best pay-up options on the slate. Wagner has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 games while recording over 50 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
Top Value: Tidjane Salaun vs. Orlando Magic – $3,300 DraftKings
Hornets forward Grant Williams suffered a torn ACL last game and is out for the season. Not only is Williams out, but so is Miles Bridges, Tre Mann, and both centers. The Hornets are running out of options, which will force them to play rookie Tidjane Salaun for extended minutes. Over his last three games, Salaun is averaging eight points and four rebounds per game. He is the best pure punt play on this slate.
Priced near the stone minimum at $3,300, getting exposure to Salaun will make it much easier to build a stars and scrubs lineup build. Over his last five games, nearly 70% of Salaun’s field goal attempts have come from behind the arc. The Magic have been elite defending the 3-point line and defensively in general. Salaun has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, but do not get carried away with his ownership. Keep an eye on his minutes projection in our model to make sure he will play 25+.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. LA Clippers – $10,200 DraftKings
Sitting at a 14-3 record, the reigning champion Celtics continue to be a juggernaut in this league. They have played every game without Kristaps Porzingis, which has made this run even more impressive. Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game, proving to be the top option on the team. For tonight, Tatum has the third-highest projected ceiling on this seven-game slate.
The Celtics are nearly double-digit favorites at home against the Clippers. With his peripherals and usage rate, Tatum has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league. Despite the Clippers ranking fifth in defensive rating, Tatum is a strong play in all formats. His ownership will be relatively low, which makes him a good contrarian pay-up option. It is difficult to ignore how well Tatum has played.
Top Value: Tobias Harris vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,200 DraftKings
Another Pistons value player to get exposure to tonight is veteran power forward Tobias Harris. He will also benefit from the absence of Cade Cunningham. With Cunningham off the floor this season, Harris has the second-highest usage rate increase and DraftKings Plus/Minus behind Jaden Ivey. Harris has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate in what will be a strong matchup for him.
The only downside to Harris has been his boom-or-bust performances lately. Over the last three games, Harris has one game scoring 43 DraftKings points and two games where he didn’t exceed 19 DraftKings points. Which Harris will come to play is a big question mark, which makes him a strong tournament option. Ivey and Harris can be played in the same lineup tonight, especially at their mid-range price tags.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. New York Knicks – $12,000 DraftKings
The player with by far the highest projected ceiling in our player models tonight is three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. The numbers Jokic has put up this season has been absurd. He is averaging a career-high in every major statistic with 30.3 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 11.3 assists per game. Jokic is second in the league in scoring and assists and leads the league in rebounds. He is averaging 71.8 DraftKings points per game!
This is a more difficult matchup for Jokic against the Knicks’ frontcourt. They rank just outside the top 10 in points allowed per game in the paint and rank seventh in rebounding percentage. However, Jokic is matchup-proof and will continue to see an uptick in his rebounding rate with Aaron Gordon sidelined. Jokic is $12,000, but he is worth every dollar. Make him a priority for this seven-game slate tonight.
Top Value: Robert Williams at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,800 DraftKings
With DeAndre Ayton doubtful and Donovan Clingan already ruled out, Robert Williams will need to play a big role for the Trail Blazers frontcourt. Williams is projected to play 26 minutes tonight, which will make him one of the most popular value plays on the slate. At his sub-$5,000 salary, Williams is projected to be the second-highest owned player while also having the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
The Grizzlies have been the best rebounding team in the league with a 52.8% rebounding percentage, which will force the Trail Blazers to give extra playing time to Williams in order to compete on the glass. Williams has only played six games this season due to injury, but he is averaging a career-high 10.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game while shooting 76.5% from the field. He is an elite value play in all formats.
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