The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Brooklyn Nets – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
With all 30 NBA teams in action, the top ceiling players are virtually a “Who’s Who” of the top players in the NBA. Even with all the options, it’s important to consider matchups and salaries for all the players involved. At point guard, though, there’s little doubt that Doncic brings the highest ceiling at the position. On DraftKings, he has the highest ceiling projection at any position, while on FanDuel, he gets edged out by only Giannis Antetkounmpo.
Doncic has posted an NBA-leading 38.39% usage rate and produced 1.8 DraftKings points and 1.73 FanDuel points per minute, second on both sites to only Giannis. In his eight games, he has averaged 36.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 1.9 steals in 36.5 minutes per game. He has over 58 DraftKings points in seven straight games and has scored over 30 points in every single one of his games this season.
The matchup is also good since the Nets have given up the fifth-most DraftKings points to the position. He also has a positive Pace Differential since the Nets play faster than Dallas.
He’s a pricy play, but there’s always a case to build around him since his high usage gives him plenty of consistency and a sky-high ceiling.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
One of the key metrics on FantasyLabs to help pinpoint value is projected Plus/Minus. At point guard on this jumbo slate, Clarkson has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He has a ceiling projection of over 48 fantasy points on both sites, with a usage projection of over 25%.
Part of the reason for Clarkson’s projected success is an excellent matchup against the Lakers, who have given up the most DraftKings points and the third-most FanDuel points to opposing point guards. The Lakers also play at the fastest pace in the NBA, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Clarkson against his former team.
Clarkson has started every game this year for the Jazz and helped them to a win on Sunday night over the Clippers with 23 points, five assists, three rebounds, and 36.75 DraftKings points. He had 20 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and 34.25 DraftKings points against the Lakers last week. Since a woeful 1-for-10 shooting night in Denver at the end of last month, Clarkson has produced over 30 DraftKings points in five straight contests.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Terry Rozier vs. Washington Wizards – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Rozier has the highest rating of any Shooting Guard in our NBA Models on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He has the second-highest ceiling Projection on DraftKings and the fifth-highest ceiling projection on FanDuel. He also has a +4.11 projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +6.21 projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, so he checks a lot of boxes.
Scary Terry has only been around for three games this season but has posted a usage over 30% and over 39 DraftKings points in each of them. He logged 36 minutes in his return on Saturday night against the Nets and took a team-high 24 shots from the field, while none of his teammates took more than 14. Even though his efficiency wasn’t great, his volume resulted in 25 points with seven rebounds and three assists. After knocking the rust off in that contest, he should be ready to be more efficient and productive in this matchup with the Wizards.
Top Value: Terance Mann vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
On this jumbo slate, Mann brings the highest projected Plus/Minus at any position on DraftKings, where he’s especially cheap. Mann also brings positional flexibility, qualifying at point guard on DraftKings and small forward on FanDuel.
Mann is expected to get extra playing time against the Cavs since John Wall (rest) and Kawhi Leonard (knee) are out. Reggie Jackson (knee) could also be limited or sidelined after banging knees in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss to the Jazz. Even with Jackson in the projections, Mann is projected to play 29.06 minutes with a 16.39% usage rate.
Mann made his fourth start of the season in that loss to the Jazz. He had his best game of the year with 14 points, three rebounds, three assists, and two steals for 28.1 FanDuel points and 26.25 DraftKings points. He’ll be in a place to build on that strong showing in this matchup and can help you spend up to get stars in other spots with his sub-$4K salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Dallas Mavericks – $11,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Durant has had to pick up even more of the offensive work for the Nets with Ben Simmons (knee, questionable), Kyrie Irving (suspension), Seth Curry, and Joe Harris all in and out of the lineup over the past few games. The Nets have won back-to-back games thanks to his work, and his head-to-head matchup with Luka tonight should make for great theatre.
Of all the players on the slate, Durant has the fifth-highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a 36.79% projected usage rate, third behind only Luka and Giannis. Since he’s a little cheaper on FanDuel, he comes across as a little bit of a bargain, given his high ceiling.
In his previous matchup against Dallas, he had 37 points and 53.75 DraftKings points in 41 minutes in a four-point defeat. On Saturday, he had 27 points and 45 DraftKings points while helping the Nets rally past the Hornets for a second straight win without Kyrie. With Irving on the floor, Durant has produced 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.8% usage rate, but those numbers jump to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.8% usage rate without Irving.
Top Value:
Kyle Anderson vs. New York Knicks – $4,100 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
With so many great high-priced plays, it’s a good thing there are some cheap value options like Mann and Anderson to balance things out. Anderson has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any player across the board on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. His ceiling and floor projections are slightly higher than Mann’s, but he costs more on DraftKings, where he’s just over $4K.
Part of the reason for Anderson’s increased expectations on Monday is that he’s expected to draw another start in place of Rudy Gobert, who has been ruled out for health and safety protocols. While Anderson has played a minimal role in Minnesota’s second unit, he fit in nicely with the starters on Saturday, producing his best fantasy game of the season by a wide margin.
Anderson scored 16 points after scoring a total of 11 points in the team’s first nine games, and he added six assists, three steals, and three rebounds for 35.25 DraftKings points and 36.6 FanDuel points. Even though that would seem to be a ceiling game, his fit with the starters was undeniable, and he should be able to return significant value in this matchup with the Knicks.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo at Atlanta Hawks – $12,600 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Giannis has been outstanding to start the season. He has led his team to a 9-0 sprint out of the gate, but they’ll be in a tough matchup against the Hawks in Atlanta on Monday night. Giannis will return from a knee injury that sidelined him Saturday against the Thunder, but his teammates took care of business without him and dispatched OKC.
On this massive slate, he brings the highest ceiling and floor projection at any position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Even though he costs so much, he also has a strong projected Plus/Minus since his projection outpaces his steep price tag.
Antetokoumpo has seven double-doubles in his eight games and is coming off his first triple-double of the season on Friday. He had 63.5 DraftKings points on 26 points, 14 rebounds, and 11 assists while only playing 34 minutes against Minnesota. He has averaged an NBA-leading 1.82 FanDuel points per minute and 1.88 DraftKings points per minute on 32.6 points, 12.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.0 steals per game.
Giannis is on the injury report as probable again, but as long as he returns to his usual workload, he’ll be in a great spot in what should be a great game against the risking Hawks. Our Vegas Dashboard indicates it should be a close game, so Giannis should be busy and play as much as possible.
Top Value: Isaiah Hartenstein at Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Hartenstein brings the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the highest projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings. He doesn’t have an extremely high usage projection but should get plenty of playing time while continuing to fill in for Mitchell Robinson (knee).
Hartenstein started and played a whopping 38 minutes on Saturday against the Celtics. He had his first double-double of the season with 10 points, 14 rebounds, and 32.5 DraftKings points. His median projection is right around that number again in this contest, and he gets a bit of a break by not having to go up against The Stifle Tower. He probably won’t score a ton of points, but his blocks and boards will be enough to make him an excellent midrange value
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at San Antonio Spurs – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
If we’re talking ceiling at center, the conversation has to include Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Joel Embiid (questionable, illness). Jokic gets the nod on this slate, partly due to his great matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA, giving the Nuggets a positive Pace Differential. Denver also is tied with Golden State for the highest implied team total on our Vegas Dashboard.
Even though his per-minute production is down a little bit this season, Jokic is still putting up elite numbers, averaging 20.3 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. He had his third triple-double of the season in last week’s matchup with the Thunder and then needed to play only 27 minutes against the Spurs to put up 47.5 DraftKings points. If the Spurs can keep this game closer, Jokic should be even more productive in San Antonio.
Top Value: Christian Koloko at Chicago Bulls – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
If your salary cap space is tapped out when you’re looking for a big man, Koloko is a great option to consider while he fills in for Pascal Siakam (groin). With Siakam out at least two weeks, the seven-footer from Arizona that the Raps grabbed in the second round should get plenty of opportunity to shine.
His cheap salary and 21.73 projected minutes give him the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of any center on DraftKings and the third-highest of all centers on FanDuel. He has a ceiling projection of just under 30 fantasy points but also brings a solid projected floor.
Koloko started Sunday against the Bulls and had 11 points, seven rebounds, and a career-high six blocked shots. Those blocks propelled him to a season-high 34.25 DraftKings points and 39.4 FanDuel points since FanDuel rewards defensive production a little more. On either site, Koloko brings elite value upside in the rematch and can be a good investment under $4K.
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