The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Leading the league in assists with 12.1 per game, Tyrese Haliburton is also averaging a career-high in points, field goal, and 3-point percentages. He has recorded a double-double in 12 of his first 14 games to start the season and is the clear-cut top pay-up option at point guard on this five-game slate. The decision to roster Haliburton or one of the elite centers may come down to the matchup, which greatly favors Haliburton as the 4-12 Trail Blazers have lost nine of their last 10 games.
The Pacers are 13-point home favorites, implied for a slate-high 126.5 points. This game total has also risen to 240 points as the Pacers continue to lead the league in scoring by a wide margin with 128.8 points per game. Haliburton naturally looks better on FanDuel as his $10,600 salary has a 91% Bargain Rating, but he can be deployed on either site in this great spot.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell at Philadelphia 76ers – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
D’Angelo Russell has recorded back-to-back mediocre games, but his price tag is slipping to a point where it is time to take advantage. Before those two poor games in a row, Russell had a positive Plus/Minus in his previous 11 of 15 games.
For tonight’s action, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings for the entire slate. Prioritize Russell on DraftKings where he also has the highest projected ownership on the slate at 34%, making him a staple play in cash games.
The Lakers are dealing with a ton of injuries right now in their backcourt, with Gabe Vincent out and Cam Reddish currently listed as questionable. Russell is projected to play 30 minutes and be one of the best mid-range values on the slate. Expect a bounce-back game from him. He is still third on the Lakers in scoring and usage rate and second in assists per game.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Denver Nuggets – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Paul George continued his consistent play with over 40 FanDuel points again Saturday night, making it seven straight games with that output and a positive Plus/Minus. George finished with a near double-double with 25 points and nine rebounds as the Clippers won easily over the Mavericks. With his consistent play and priced under $9,000 on both sites, George makes a strong cash game play across the industry. He looks best on FanDuel with his slate-high 13 Pro Trends.
Another benefit for George is playing at home, where the Clippers are 5-2 compared to just 2-6 on the road. The Clippers are 5.5-point favorites against the reigning NBA Champion Denver Nuggets, implied for 113.5 points. Not only are the Clippers better at home, but so is George, who averages more points, rebounds, assists, and his shooting percentages are all higher.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon at Indiana Pacers – $7,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
The mid-range for guards is loaded, as Malcolm Brogdon is another player worth getting exposure to. Playing against his former team, Brogdon has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position. Brogdon had his minutes restriction lifted last night and produced in a big way with a near triple-double. He finished with 18 points, 13 assists, and eight rebounds as he had a 32.1% usage rate. He put up 53.5 DraftKings points despite shooting 7-for-23 from the field.
Playing against the Pacers, who lead the league in Pace at 104.37, will provide plenty of opportunities for Brogdon to record fantasy points. The Trail Blazers are playing on a back-to-back as heavy underdogs, but they are still dealing with backcourt injuries as Anfernee Simons remains out. They will need all they can get out of Brogdon to keep this game competitive.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Despite the calf injury that LeBron James has had for the past week, he does still lead the Lakers in points, assists, and usage rate at 30.2%. Make sure to always keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock if he does sit out. However, James and the Lakers are rolling right now, winning seven of their last nine games. During that stretch, James is averaging 26.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 53 DraftKings points per game, including one triple-double against the Kings.
Projected for around 20% ownership on both sites, he is easier to fit on DraftKings due to his $500 cheaper price tag. James has 12 Pro Trends and the highest projected ceiling at the forward position tonight. The matchup against the 76ers is relatively difficult but James’ usage rate and production negates the tough spot.
He looks like a strong pay-up option tonight.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs Portland Trail Blazers – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Going back to the best game environment on the slate, Buddy Hield has one of the biggest pricing discrepancies on the slate. His salary skyrocketed on DraftKings to $6,400 but remains an exceptional value on FanDuel at $5,300. It shouldn’t be shocking that Hield has one of the highest ownerships on the slate for FanDuel as his price tag is resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. Projected to play over 36 minutes tonight, Hield is one of the key factors to the Pacers’ budding success.
Hield is currently tied for sixth in most 3-pointers made at 3.3 per game. He was inconsistent for a little while earlier this month, but Hield has been heating up lately, averaging 24.3 points per game while shooting 69.3% from the field and 66.7% from behind the arc in his last three games. This is a great spot for Hield to stay hot against the pitiful Trail Blazers defense.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Zion Williamson at Utah Jazz – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy are nearing a return for the Pelicans, but are not back quite yet. Zion Williamson has taken full advantage of both of their absences recently as he has four straight games with 25+ points. Over that time, Williamson has made double-digit field goals in each game while shooting 60.8% from the field. In his last game against the Clippers, Williamson scored a season-high 32 points on 13-for-25 from the floor as he had a massive 41.6% usage rate.
Williamson looks fantastic on FanDuel with his $8,100 salary. He has a 94% Bargain Rating and is projected for a slate-high 53% ownership. He is impossible to ignore at his cheap price tag and makes for a near-lock in cash game formats. He will benefit in this matchup as the Jazz are allowing 53.1 points per game in the paint, which is the sixth-highest in the league.
Top Value: Isaiah Stewart vs. Washington Wizards – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Isaiah Stewart has been a boom-or-bust fantasy option, which makes him a very strong tournament play at low ownership. Over his last six games, Stewart has three double-doubles with 30+ DraftKings points and then two games where he failed to top 17 DraftKings points. Prioritize Stewart on DraftKings, where he is at a discounted salary of $5,500. He still starts for the Pistons frontcourt and is projected to play over 30 minutes tonight. Stewart is a cheap way to get different on this slate.
The matchup for Stewart is elite as the Wizards rank dead last in both Defensive Rating and Rebounding Percentage at 44% this season. A double-double is firmly on the table for Stewart who has a chance to be in the optimal lineup. He is easy to fit with power forward and center eligibility and is a cheap way to get exposure to this game that has a 236-point total.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $11,700 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
The center position is absolutely stacked tonight, but leading the entire slate in projected ceiling is 76ers’ Joel Embiid. Battling out Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis, Embiid continues to lead the league in scoring with a career-high 32.1 points per game. He also has a league and career-high 36.1% usage rate as the entire 76ers offense runs through Embiid. He has back-to-back games with 70+ FanDuel points as he is averaging 33.5 points, 12 rebounds, and 4.5 blocks per game.
Surprisingly, with Davis and James, the Lakers have been a below-average rebounding and defensive interior team this season. They will have their hands full with Embiid, who leads the league in both free-throws made and attempted. The discount from Jokic to Embiid is enough to make Embiid the best pay-up option on the slate, especially in this matchup.
Top Value: Jalen Duren vs. Washington Wizards – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Getting the same matchup as Stewart, Jalen Duren is finally healthy and in a great spot to dominate the Wizards weak frontcourt. Priced at $6,700 on both sites, Duren has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. In his first full season as a starter, Duren is averaging a double-double with 12.7 points and 10.9 rebounds per game while shooting 60.7% from the field. Projected to play over 30 minutes tonight, Duren looks like an elite value option.
Before getting injured, Duren started the season with three straight games of massive double-doubles as he averaged 18 points, 15.3 rebounds, four assists, 2.7 blocks, and 49.7 DraftKings points per game over that time. He is capable of putting up monster numbers, and this is the perfect matchup to do just that. This position is loaded, but Duren is difficult to ignore.
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