The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. New York Knicks – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest ceiling projection at point guard on this eight-game slate, just edging out other elite options like Steph Curry, Trae Young, Donovan Mitchell, and Tyrese Haliburton on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he actually has a wider margin at the top of the ceiling projections over the rest of the top point guards because he usually provides such diverse contributions across the stat sheet.
SGA had a quiet game in his most recent contest, posting only 33.5 DraftKings points in an 11-point loss to the Grizzlies. Before that, though, he was rolling with three straight games of at least 37 points and 59 DraftKings points. The first of those three monster performances came in this same matchup against the Knicks. He had 37 points, five rebounds, eight assists, three steals, two blocks, and 64 FanDuel points while helping the Thunder to a win at Madison Square Garden last Sunday. He has a similar ceiling in the rematch in OKC this Monday.
Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-highest ceiling projection of any player on the slate, and his 32.34 projected usage rate ranks third.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson at Los Angeles Clippers – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Clarkson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and ranks fifth on DraftKings. He is projected to get a boost in usage with Mike Conley (knee) out after suffering a non-contact injury on Saturday. With Conley off the floor, Clarkson moves to a 29.0% usage rate and puts up 1.23 DraftKings points per minute compared to his 25.8% usage rate and 0.92 DraftKings points per minute when Conley is on the floor.
After coming off the bench for the last few years in Utah, Clarkson has started all 18 games for Utah this season. He has averaged 18.6 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 31.9 DraftKings points, and 29.7 FanDuel points in his 30.8 minutes per game, and he has been trending in the right direction.
Clarkson has scored at least 20 points in seven of his past 10 games and is coming off 28 points in the game in which Conley suffered his injury. He finished that game with 36.5 DraftKings points and 33.4 FanDuel points. In his previous matchup with the Clippers, Clarkson had very similar production with 36.75 DraftKings points and 32.1 FanDuel points. If he’s around those numbers again on Monday, he’ll be an excellent value play.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Mitchell has the highest projected ceiling at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He and the Cavs have the highest Pace Differential on the slate as they host the high-powered Hawks, who rank sixth in the NBA in Pace and third-worst in opponent three-point percentage allowed.
This should be a great Eastern Conference matchup with plenty of star power in the backcourt, and Mitchell should be in a good spot to attack. He and the Cavs crushed Miami on Sunday, so he only had to play 27 minutes in the 26-point rout. He had at least 48 DraftKings points in three of his four previous games, including falling just one assist short of a triple-double in a monster game against the Warriors that resulted in 62.5 DraftKings points. Mitchell has scored at least 29 points in five of his six most recent games before Sunday and should be set to bounce back in a much more competitive game against Atlanta.
Mitchell’s usage rate has dropped slightly with the move to Cleveland, but he has still been putting up outstanding numbers. In his 14 games, he has averaged 48.15 DraftKings points and 46.3 FanDuel points, which would be new career highs by wide margins. He has played 38.1 minutes per game and produced 29.9 points, 5.8 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per contest.
Top Value: Jalen Williams vs. New York Knicks – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, where he is cheaper and brings dual-eligibility at small forward, Williams is a very nice value play as he continues to grow into an expanded role with the Thunder. The rookie first-rounder suffered an orbital fracture on opening night but has been working his way back and showing excellent versatility. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel.
Williams has averaged 29.5 minutes over his past five games, including a pair of starts. He has scored double-digit points in all but one of those games, with over 23 DraftKings points in four of those five contests. Over those five games, he has averaged 11.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 0.6 steals.
The 21-year-old rookie is coming off his best game of the season on Friday, when he had 38.5 DraftKings points on 16 points, seven assists, six rebounds, and two steals. Especially if he gets another start, Williams is a great value to consider.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Chicago Bulls – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Tatum has the third-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. He has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on DraftKings and is second on FanDuel behind only Giannis Antetkounmpo. Tatum is becoming an option you have to consider as a ceiling play on just about every slate he is a part of as he continues to take his game to the next level.
In his 16 games, he is averaging 51.2 DraftKings points and 50.1 FanDuel points in his 37.3 minutes per game. Even after scoring under 20 points in his two most recent contests, he is averaging 30.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. Tatum’s slight downturn in scoring in wins over the Hawks and Pelicans came partly due to the absence of Marcus Smart, who is expected to return on Monday. Tatum handed out 18 assists in two games without Smart, so he still finished with over 43 DraftKings points in each contest. With Smart back to run the point, Tatum should be able to resume his scoring role.
This will be the third meeting between these teams already this season. Tatum had 45 DraftKings points in their first matchup but then went off for 66.5 DraftKings points in their second meeting, dropping 36 points to go with 12 rebounds and six assists in a dramatic four-point victory.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker at Los Angeles Clippers – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Horton-Tucker has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has performed above his salary expectation in six of his past eight games and is another member of the Jazz expected to get more work while Conley is sidelined.
THT has shown a high fantasy ceiling when he gets high volume, but his role has fluctuated throughout his career. He showed his potential upside in his most productive game, posting a double-double with 12 points, 10 assists, and 32.6 FanDuel points a week ago against the Wizards.
He played a season-high 32 minutes on Saturday in the game in which Conley was injured and totaled 23 FanDuel points on eight points, five rebounds, two assists, a steal, and a block. It’s worth noting that he closed out that game ahead of Collin Sexton, which could mean he’ll get a more substantial boost from Conley’s absence, even though Sexton is the more expensive option.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
As he usually does, Antetokoumpo has the highest ceiling projection of any player on the slate on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s actually edged out by Gilgeous-Alexander, but Giannis still brings the highest projected usage on the slate at 34.8%.
So far this season, Giannis has produced 1.74 DraftKings points and 1.68 FanDuel points per minute. His production has actually been down a little bit lately since returning from a knee injury, but this could be a get-right spot against the Trail Blazers, who have given up the sixth-most points per game this season and the fifth-most rebounds on their way to having the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
Giannis has been struggling from the free throw line —whether ladders are involved or not — but that’s something he has previously fixed when it has been an issue. He is coming off back-to-back double-doubles and got to over 50 DraftKings points on Friday against Philly, so his “down” games are not that awful and his ceiling remains virtually unmatched.
Top Value: Nikola Jovic at Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Jovic has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the highest on DraftKings. He’s also eligible at center on DraftKings, and he has the top Projected Plus/Minus at that position as well.
The Heat have been decimated by injuries and will be without at least Jimmy Butler for this matchup in Minnesota. Jovic has been one of the Heat reserves to step up and produce lately, but his salary has been slow to adjust, especially on DraftKings, where he remains such a frontcourt value.
Jovic is a 19-year-old rookie who the Heat snagged at the end of the first round in the last NBA draft. He has started each of their previous three games, posting 19.75, 26, and 21.5 DraftKings points. In his three starts, he has averaged 12.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 0.7 steals in 28.8 minutes per contest.
While who’s in and who’s out could impact his usage, he has shown enough to be a good value option to consider in a matchup against Minnesota, where Miami will need all the size it can find.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Miami Heat – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Towns brings the second-highest ceiling projection at center on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s also significantly cheaper than Giannis, so it may make more sense to save the salary and build around him against the under-manned Miami frontcourt.
The Timberwolves have won three straight, and Towns posted over 45 DraftKings points in the first two of those wins before a down game against the 76ers on Saturday. He had his best fantasy game of the season last Sunday to start the three-game run, finishing with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 55.75 DraftKings points.
He has that kind of potential in any contest and regularly returns 45-50 fantasy points, which is enough to make him the top ceiling option on this slate where most of the star power is at point guard and power forward.
Top Value: Jarrett Allen – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Allen was a big letdown on Sunday since the Cavs ran away from the Heat, and he only played 27 minutes with 17 DraftKings points. The models believe it’s a great night to go back to the well since Allen is in a good spot against the Hawks.
Allen has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings behind THT, Jovic, and Quentin Grimes.
We don’t have to look back far to see Allen’s potential. In his first game back after missing two games with ankle soreness, Allen racked up 46 minutes and 46.5 DKFP in the Cavs’ double-overtime win. He has eight double-doubles in his 14 games this season and is producing 0.99 DraftKings points and 1.0 FanDuel points per minute. As long as he’s back to his usual workload, he should be a nice value play Monday night.
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