The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Boston Celtics – $8,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Gilgeous-Alexander brings a ton of upside as the Thunder finish their back-to-back in the Northeast with a matchup against the Celtics in Boston. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of any point guard on this seven-game slate behind only Stephen Curry, who could sit out on the second night of Golden State’s back-to-back.
SGA carried the Thunder to a ten-point win on Sunday afternoon in New York, producing 64 FanDuel points on 37 points, eight assists, five rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. He had his second-highest usage rate in the league at 37.1%, and he could be in for a significant workload again in this matchup, especially if Tre Mann (back) is unavailable. He’s projected for 31% usage, the second-highest of any point guard on the slate behind only Trae Young.
In his past eight games, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 30 points six times, with over 48 FanDuel points in each of those six contests. He usually contributes good defensive production and assists numbers as well, which helps him have a high ceiling. Especially on DraftKings, where his salary is so low, SGA is a great cornerstone to build around.
Top Value: Tre Jones at Golden State Warriors – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Jones leads all point guards in Projected Plus/Minus on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Malachi Flynn is a bargain to consider without Fred VanVleet, but he can’t come close to matching Jones’ ceiling and is a much higher-risk option. Jones has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel coming into the day.
Jones and the Spurs are starting a five-game week with what should be a good matchup against the Warriors, depending on who Golden State rolls out there. Regardless of which Warriors’ stars get the night off, it should be a spot for Jones to excel since the Warriors are the top team in the NBA in pace and rank fifth-worst in defensive efficiency.
While starting all 13 games for San Antonio this season, Jones has been productive, averaging 12.3 points, 6.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game for over 29 DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. He has been playing even better lately, with over 32 DraftKings points in three straight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Houston Rockets – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
George will likely be carrying the load for the Clippers in Houston with Kawhi Leonard (knee) and John Wall (injury management) ruled out. George faced the Rockets in a similar situation on Halloween and dropped a scary 35 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, and six steals for 75.25 DraftKings points and 78.8 FanDuel points.
That monster performance kicked off a run of six straight games with over 40 DraftKings points. During that span, PG averaged 50.3 DraftKings points on 30.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.8 steals. His run of success came to a halt on Saturday when he struggled against the Nets, but he’s in a favorable spot to bounce back against the Rockets.
George brings the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest ceiling projection on FanDuel behind only SGA.
Top Value: Jevon Carter vs. Atlanta Hawks – $6,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee, probable) expected to return, there should still be room for Carter to produce good numbers while Jrue Holiday (ankle) remains sidelined. Carter has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the shooting guards on FanDuel and the eighth-highest on DraftKings, where his salary has caught up to his recent production a little bit more.
While Carter has started every game for the Bucks this season, he didn’t start delivering big-time value until two games ago. In his first game without Holiday, Carter went off for over 60 DraftKings points on 36 points, 12 assists, and four rebounds in 45 minutes. He cooled off a little on Friday but still had 21 points, six assists, and 35 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Spurs.
While Giannis’s return will likely reduce his usage, he should still be the team’s second or third scoring option. He only needs a 15% usage projection to produce the solid value projection in our current models.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Detroit Pistons – $8,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Barnes has the third-highest ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only George and Jayson Tatum. He should be set up for a significant workload, with VanVleet joining Pascal Siakam (adductor) on the sideline. He has been scuffling lately and hasn’t scored over 15 points in any of his past four games, but he’s still reached over 30 DraftKings points in each contest. His scoring woes haven’t been for lack of opportunities since he has attempted 45 shots over his past three games.
The matchup against the Pistons should be a good spot for Barnes to bounce back, with Detroit ranking last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. After taking tough losses to the Thunder and Pacers in their two most recent games, Barnes and the Raptors will hope the matchup is enough to get them back on track.
Even though he hasn’t been delivering recently, Barnes still brings a high enough ceiling to be a strong option, especially since his salary on both sites is relatively affordable compared to his elite ceiling. Barnes has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with a salary over $6K on DraftKings.
Top Value: Otto Porter Jr. at Detroit Pistons – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
In that same favorable matchup, Porter Jr. offers excellent value at the two forward spots, bringing the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at small forward, where he’s surprisingly cheap, and the fourth-highest at small forward on FanDuel.
Porter moved into the starting lineup for the first time this season on Saturday with VanVleet out and Barnes moving to point guard. In that start, the veteran chipped in 20.25 DraftKings points on six points, five rebounds, three assists, and two steals in a season-high 27 minutes. While that production isn’t elite, it’s significant enough to deserve attention at this salary if he gets a similar workload against the Pistons.
He and his fellow Raptors’ veteran Thaddeus Young have similar salaries and production potential for this matchup, so they’re both excellent value plays to consider, especially on DraftKings, where both are cheap ways to get exposure to a great matchup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
The Celtics have gotten off to a fast 10-3 start behind great production from Tatum, who is coming off one of his best games of the season and is in a good spot against the Thunder. Boston has the highest Implied Team Total on our Vegas Dashboard and the highest Pace Differential on the slate.
On Saturday, Tatum took on some extra work in the absence of Jaylen Brown and stepped up with 43 points, 10 boards, and three assists for a season-high 67.5 DraftKings points. It was his fourth straight game with over 30 points and over 45 DraftKings points, and he has taken at least 20 shots in each of those contests with a 35.7% usage rate.
With the exception of Giannis, whose projections aren’t finalized at the time of writing, Tatum has the highest projected ceiling of all power forwards on the slate on both sites and the second-highest ceiling projection of all the players on the slate.
Top Value: Jeremy Sochan at Golden State Warriors – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The Spurs continue to give Sochan plenty of playing time, and the 19-year-old rookie is starting to flash some intriguing potential. He’s in the top 10 of Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings and is just outside the top 10 on FanDuel.
Sochan has double-digit points in each of his past two games and added seven rebounds and two assists for over 22 DraftKings points while helping the Spurs knock off the undermanned Bucks. San Antonio might catch the Warriors in a similar situation, depending on who’s in and who’s out for Golden State, but either way, Sochan has proven his playing time is safe enough to deliver value regardless of the game script.
The Raptors’ veterans of Porter and Young are solid plays as value options at PF, but if you’re looking for a younger option with a nice ceiling, Sochan can also be a consideration.
Center
Top Ceiling: Bol Bol vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Setting aside the Bucks with Giannis’ potential return and its impact on Bobby Portis, Bol actually has the highest ceiling projection of all the centers on the slate. He’s having a great season in Orlando after bouncing from Denver to Detroit to Boston to Orlando over the past year.
Bol was impressive with 13 points, 15 rebounds, and 34.75 DraftKings points in his most recent game and has over 34 DraftKings points in four of his seven most recent contests. Especially if Paulo Banchero misses a third straight game, Bol should be able to pick up even more offensive work. He has a low floor projection, but as a ceiling play, he is an attractive big man for GPP lineups.
Top Value: Kevon Looney vs. San Antonio Spurs– $4,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The Warriors may rest stars on the second half of their back-to-back, but whether they do or not, Looney is likely to play because he is their one ironman. Last season he played all 82 games, and this year he has been on the floor for all 13 of their contests. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Looney has been consistently productive lately, with over 25 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, highlighted by two performances with over 29 FanDuel points. During that five-game stretch, he has shot 62% from the field while averaging 7.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.0 blocks per game.
He doesn’t offer the highest ceiling since his volume will almost always be low, but with fewer stars, he should be set for plenty of minutes in a favorable spot against the Spurs. The Warriors bring the second-highest Implied Team Total on the board tonight, and Looney is a cheap way to get a piece of that production.
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