The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Sacramento Kings – $9,300 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
With point guard and shooting guard eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Donovan Mitchell is the pay-up guard to target. He has shot poorly (33%) over his last two games, but Mitchell has still scored 20+ in both contests. Through eight games, Mitchell is averaging a career-high 29.5 points per game and has scored 20+ in every game this season. With a 32.2% usage rate, Mitchell is also attempting a career-high 21.9 field goals per game with only one game under 20 this year.
The Kings will likely still be without De’Aaron Fox, who is doubtful to play tonight. They play much slower without Fox, which is why this game has the lowest total on the slate at 221.5 points. That is still plenty of points, and the Cavaliers are 2.5-point road favorites. Prioritize Mitchell on DraftKings, where he is $700 cheaper than FanDuel and has a 76% Bargain Rating.
Editor’s note: De’Aaron Fox reportedly could still play Monday night. Check NBA Models for updates.
Top Value: Keon Ellis vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The starting point guard for the Kings in their last two games has been second-year pro Keon Ellis. He burst onto the scene off the bench against the Rockets, scoring 15 points in 14 minutes, while shooting 5-for-7 from the field and 4-for-6 from the perimeter. Over his last three games, Ellis is averaging 19.7 DraftKings points per game and played 31 minutes last game. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each game and is projected for the second-highest Plus/Minus on both sites.
Priced below $4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Ellis is a great salary saver to fill out a stars and scrubs lineup build. Ellis is projected to start again tonight and play around 28 minutes. Ellis is much more popular on FanDuel than DraftKings due to his stone-minimum $3,500 salary. He is drawing around 40% projected ownership on FanDuel and 20% on DraftKings.
Ellis is a strong cash-game play on both sites tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Milwaukee Bucks – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan continue to provide a 1-2 scoring punch for the Bulls as both are averaging over 22 points per game. They are strong plays on this small slate, but the slight edge goes to LaVine due to the Bucks’ lack of perimeter defense. Over his last five seasons with the Bulls, LaVine has attempted at least seven 3-pointers per game.
Despite ranking 25th in Defensive Rating, the Bucks still rank in the top 10 in the least amount of points scored in the paint. Where they struggle defensively is behind the arc, as they are allowing 13.6 made 3-pointers per game, which is tied for the fifth-most in the league. LaVine has the capability to get hot from distance as he already displayed this season by making seven 3-pointers against the Raptors. At his sub-$8,000 salary on both sites, LaVine is a really good mid-range option.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Editor’s note: De’Aaron Fox reportedly could still play Monday night. Check NBA Models for updates.
The most popular play on the slate for both sites is the Kings’ shooting guard Kevin Huerter. With De’Aaron Fox off the floor this season, Huerter is averaging a +2.34% usage rate and a +4.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus. After poor shooting to start the season, Huerter got hot last game, scoring 28 points on 11-for-19 from the field and 4-for-10 from downtown. He also pulled down nine rebounds and finished with over 50 DraftKings points. At sub-$6,000 on both sites, his high ownership is justified.
Similar to the Bucks’ defense, the Cavaliers’ frontcourt is the teeth of their defense. They allow the sixth-fewest points in the paint per game while allowing opponents to shoot 37.9% from the perimeter, which is tied for the fifth-highest mark. Huerter may not get close to a double-double again, but this is a great matchup for the Kings to rely on his outside shooting tonight.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes vs. Washington Wizards – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Scottie Barnes is significantly cheaper than Jayson Tatum across the industry and has the higher projected ceiling in our NBA Model at the small forward position. Barnes is currently second in Most Improved voting as he is leading the Raptors in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks while ranking second in assists. His usage rate has jumped to a career-high 25% this season as his perimeter shooting has gotten much better at 35.3%. Barnes has been one of the best players in the league.
Another positive to tonight’s game is Barnes may get the luxury of playing without OG Anunoby, who is questionable, which would boost Barnes even more. Keep an eye on Anunoby’s status the closer we get to lock, but him being out could also make this game more competitive, as the Raptors are a 9.5-point home favorite. It’s a great spot that could get better for Barnes.
Top Value: Deni Avdija at Toronto Raptors – $6,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Deni Avdija has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel at his $5,900 salary. Despite the difficult matchup against the Raptors, Avdija has 12 Pro Trends and is projected for the highest ownership at over 40%. Avdija has really taken a leap forward this season. With the Wizards moving towards a younger lineup, Avdija has taken full advantage of the increased playing time by averaging a career-high in points, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and assists per game.
Avdija is coming off his best game of the season, where he nearly had a double-double with 14 points and nine rebounds while playing a season-high 38 minutes. He has scored double-digit points in all but two games this season with both of those contests scoring nine points. Projected to play 36 minutes, Avdija looks like the best value on the slate for FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
The best pay-up option by far on this four-game slate is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He had a slow start, but Giannis has scored over 60 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Damian Lillard is expected to return, which may hurt his ceiling, but raw points are essential on small slates. Giannis leads the slate and is second in the league with a 36.6% usage rate. He has averaged a 44.3% usage rate in his last two games while scoring 89 total points and grabbing 22 rebounds.
The Bucks are nearly double-digit home favorites against a Bulls team that Giannis has dominated recently. Over the last two seasons, where Giannis has played 30+ minutes, he is averaging a massive double-double with 34 points and 15.6 rebounds per game. Projected for around 15% ownership on both sites, Giannis is a great player to get overweight on.
Top Value: Keegan Murray vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
It was nice to see Keegan Murray pull down 11 rebounds in his last game, as he was becoming more scoring-dependent recently. Against the Thunder, Murray recorded a double-double with 24 points and 11 rebounds. He scored a season-high 48.75 DraftKings points as he had a 22.6% usage rate. Similar to Ellis and Huerter, Murray will also benefit with the absence of De’Aaron Fox. He has back-to-back games with 17 field goal attempts as he is taking on a larger scoring role without Fox.
Murray likely won’t pull down 11 rebounds again versus the massive Cavaliers frontcourt, but he can take advantage on the perimeter with his outside shooting. Murray shot 41.1% from behind the arc last season and is only shooting 25.8% this year through eight games. He is too good of a shooter for that percentage, so expect a bounce-back shooting night in this spot.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
It is obvious that the Kings are looking fantastic on this small slate, but Domantas Sabonis may look the best of them all. Don’t leave him out when constructing lineups, as Sabonis is currently second to Giannis in projected ceiling tonight. Sabonis recorded his first triple-double of the season in the last game in convincing fashion with 17 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists.
Sabonis will have his hands full with a healthy Cavaliers frontcourt, but he did record 18 points and 18 rebounds in his last game against them. With no De’Aaron Fox, the entire offense runs through Sabonis at the top of the key. He will be conducting most of the action, which is why he still looks like a great play despite the difficult matchup. Priced at $10,100 on both sites, Sabonis is a strong play in all formats. He will be a little more popular based on his last game, but it is deserving.
Editor’s note: De’Aaron Fox reportedly could still play Monday night. Check NBA Models for updates.
Top Value: Precious Achiuwa vs. Washington Wizards – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
With OG Anunoby questionable, that should provide a little added boost to Precious Achiuwa‘s outlook tonight. He may not need it, as the Wizards have been dominated by opposing big men all season. They rank last in Rebounding Percentage by a landslide at 43.3%. The Wizards have allowed a league-high 51.8 rebounds per game, which is three more than the next closest team. They also rank third in field goal attempts and first in Pace, so expect plenty of opportunity for Achiuwa tonight.
The Wizards also get dominated in the paint, allowing 56.4 points per game. Achiuwa has flirted with a double-double in a few games and could break through tonight in this cupcake matchup. Getting power forward eligibility on FanDuel is huge for Achiuwa, who is only $4,300. Projected for around 15% ownership on both sites, Achiuwa is another strong value play.
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