The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,000 DraftKings
The Thunder have won 16 of their last 17 games and have locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Despite having nothing to play for, they are still getting superior play from MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The stud point guard leads the slate in projected ceiling and continues to lead the league in scoring, averaging a career-high 32.9 points per game and shooting 52.1% from the field.
Gilgeous-Alexander has recorded over 55 DraftKings points in back-to-back games with the Thunder winning by 20+ points in each game. They are 15-point home favorites against the Bulls, with the highest team total on the slate by a wide margin at 127.5 points. Since the All-Star Break, the Bulls lead the league in pace making this an excellent matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander, who ranks third in transition scoring.
Top Value: KJ Simpson vs. Utah Jazz – $4,900 DraftKings
LaMelo Ball is out for the season among other guards on the Hornets, which pushes rookie KJ Simpson into the starting lineup. Simpson is projected to play 32 minutes and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He has recorded back-to-back games with a positive Plus/Minus averaging 22.9 DraftKings points per game. Priced under $5,000, Simpson is a fantastic value option in all lineup builds.
The Hornets and Jazz have a combined record of 34-119 and have many starters out from both sides. This will not be a great basketball game on the eyes, but there are still plenty of cheap value pieces to target. Since the All-Star Break, the Jazz have the second-highest pace and rank 27th in defensive rating. The value plays on this seven-game slate are not household names, but the playing time is difficult to ignore.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Coby White at Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,300 DraftKings
The month of March has been one of the best in Coby White‘s career. He is averaging an impressive 29.1 points per game while shooting 49.6% from the field and 37.7% from behind the arc. During that 14-game stretch, White is also averaging 43.6 DraftKings points per game, which is nearly 10 points more than his season average. The Bulls are dealing with several injuries to their backcourt with Tre Jones and Kevin Huerter out, Lonzo Ball doubtful, and rising star Josh Giddey also questionable to play tonight.
If Giddey and Ball join the other guards being out, White has a team-high +3.85% usage rate and a +4.45 DraftKings Plus/Minus without those players on the floor (per our Trends tool). With shooting guard and small forward eligibility, White is a fantastic pay-up option now and could look better throughout the day.
Top Value: Dalen Terry vs. at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,500 DraftKings
Staying in the same backcourt, third-year pro Dalen Terry is starting to get valuable playing time due to all of the Bulls’ backcourt injuries. Terry has played 20+ minutes in four of his last five games with 20+ DraftKings points in each game with his boosted playing time. With Terry’s 26-minute projection tonight, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position and is an incredible value option.
The Bulls are heavy road underdogs, but they have also won nine of their last 12 games, with all three losses by a combined 10 points. Terry is a cheap way to get exposure to this Bulls offense that has looked much better. Priced at $3,500 with shooting guard and small forward eligibility, Terry is an exceptional value in all formats. The matchup may be difficult, but his salary is way too cheap for his projected ceiling.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,200 DraftKings
The Celtics have won 13 of their last 14 games and are now only 4.5 games back from the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Jayson Tatum continues to lead the Celtics in points, rebounds, and assists per game and has been stuffing the stat sheet recently. In his last 11 games, Tatum is averaging 29.8 points, 8.9 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 55.1 DraftKings points per game. He is arguably the best pay-up option tonight.
A big reason why Tatum looks especially good in this spot is Jaylen Brown is questionable to play. With Brown off the court this season, Tatum has a +5.37% usage rate increase to 36.8% over a 1,000+ minute sample size. The Grizzlies defensive rating ranks just outside the top 10. In their last meeting, Tatum had a near triple-double with 17 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists. Expect another stat-stuffing performance.
Top Value: Jaylen Martin vs. Miami Heat – $4,100 DraftKings
The Wizards are another team with nothing to play for, so they are getting their younger players more experience. That includes rookie Jaylen Martin, who was acquired by the Nets at the trade deadline. In the four games where Martin played 28+ minutes, he is averaging an impressive 11.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 24.1 DraftKings points per game. He has scored double-digit points and 20+ DraftKings points in all four games. Projected to play 28 minutes tonight at his $4,100 salary, Martin is an elite value.
Martin ranks fifth on this seven-game slate in projected Plus/Minus. He will have more than enough time to pay off his cheap price tag despite a tough matchup against the Heat. Martin is not afraid to let it fly, averaging double-digit field goal attempts in his four high playing time games with a 17.2% usage rate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. LA Clippers – $9,700 DraftKings
A big reason for the Magic’s second-half success has been due to the emergence of Paolo Banchero. The Magic were stuck behind the eight ball when Banchero was unable to play for all of November and December. However, post All-Star Break, Banchero has been a stud. He is averaging 29.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game compared to 22.5 points while shooting 42.7% from the field pre-All-Star Break.
Banchero has the third-highest projected ceiling but is priced under $10,000, unlike his pricing peers. His consistency has been one of the best features for rostering Banchero. He has 40+ DraftKings points in 11 straight games, while averaging 50.4 DraftKings points per game during that time. The Magic have the lowest total on the slate due to the Clippers elite defense, but Banchero is still worth getting exposure to.
Top Value: Matas Buzelis at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,800 DraftKings
Rookie Matas Buzelis is coming off the best game of his career against the Mavericks. He scored 28 points while shooting 10-for-17 from the field, including 5-for-7 from downtown. Buzelis also added nine rebounds, six assists, and one block, accumulating a career-best 51.75 DraftKings points. The Bulls’ injuries will also benefit Buzelis, who has seen a steady increase in his playing time and usage rate recently.
Buzelis has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games and has been lethal from long distance, shooting 56% from behind the arc. The Thunder lead the league in defensive rating and are allowing only 106.9 points per game. However, with teams trailing against them, the Thunder are allowing 39 3-point attempts per game, which is tied for the seventh-highest in the league and benefits the sharpshooter.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Indiana Pacers – $9,200 DraftKings
Domantas Sabonis is averaging a career and league-high 14 rebounds per game, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him against a weak Pacers frontcourt. The Pacers rank 28th in both points allowed in the paint with 51.8 per game and rebounding percentage at 48.4%. Sabonis has dominated his former team in the last five matchups, averaging 18 points, 13.8 rebounds, and six assists per game with four double-doubles and one triple-double, while shooting 50.7% from the field. Expect another ceiling performance.
Despite being $400 cheaper than Anthony Davis, due to the matchup against the Pacers, Sabonis has the highest projected ceiling at the center position. He has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer recently, which has kept his salary in check. Priced at $9,200, and in this matchup, this is an elite spot for Sabonis.
Top Value: Oscar Tshiebwe at Charlotte Hornets – $4,000 DraftKings
Leading this seven-game slate in projected ownership at nearly 50% is Oscar Tshiebwe. He drew the first start of his career last game against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets and handled his own with 10 rebounds and seven points. Over his last five games when playing 18+ minutes, Tshiebwe is averaging 9.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game with double-digit rebounds in four of those five games. He has been a machine on the glass and is more than capable of scoring in the paint when needed, making him a strong value.
The Hornets have been decent defending the paint this season, but Tshiebwe is simply too cheap for being projected to start and play 26 minutes. The center position is loaded with value plays, but Tshiebwe trumps them all. Prioritize the young athletic center in cash games and tournament builds in this spot.
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