The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS on Monday, Mar. 28, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray at Houston Rockets – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
The Spurs have won three-straight games and are now only one game back of the last spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament. They now get a cupcake matchup against the Rockets as they are six-point favorites with a 122 implied total. This game features the highest total on the slate at 237.5 points, so it makes sense to get to the do-everything point guard Dejounte Murray.
Murray is coming off of his 13th triple-double, where he only shot a pitiful 4-of-19 from the field. He still finished with 57.75 DraftKings points after recording three-straight relatively poor performances. The Rockets present an excellent spot for Murray as they rank last in Defensive Rating, allowing a league-high 117.6 points per game. Murray is a terrific pay-up option on tonight’s slate.
Top Value: Tyus Jones vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The salary continues to rise for Tyus Jones without Ja Morant in the lineup, but he is still a little too cheap. Over the last five games without Morant, Jones has averaged 12.2 points, 8.6 assists, and 31.7 DraftKings points per game. If you need a larger sample size, Jones has averaged 29.1 DraftKings points in 19 games without Morant this season. That makes him a great value option.
Even without Morant, the Grizzlies are double-digit favorites at home against the Warriors. They have lost five of their last six games and will likely be without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson. Their defense takes a significant hit without those three players on the floor. Jones leads the league in assist-to-turnover ratio by a wide margin, and he will flirt with another double-double tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Another game with an extremely high total is this matchup between the Pacers and Hawks, where the total sits at 235 points. Tyrese Haliburton will be one of the best players on the court, but he has had a negative Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. Those five down games resulted in an average of 26.2 DraftKings points per game. There is risk here, but the matchup is excellent.
The Hawks rank 26th in Defensive Rating as they allow their opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field, which is tied for the fifth-highest in the league. Besides a matchup that Haliburton can thrive in, he’ll also benefit from the absence of Malcolm Brogdon. In his 11 games for the Pacers without Brogdon, Haliburton is averaging a double-double with 17.2 points and 10.3 assists per game.
Top Value: Caris LeVert vs. Orlando Magic– $5,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Caris LeVert moved back into the starting lineup on Saturday and turned in his best performance since returning from injury. He finished with 17 points, five rebounds and three assists while shooting 7-of-14 from the field for 28.8 DraftKings points. Assuming he stays in the starting lineup, LeVert is too cheap for his upside. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
Being projected as the best value play, LeVert will come with extremely high ownership, even on this nine-game slate. The Cavaliers are nine-point favorites against the Magic, who are tied for the worst record in the league at 20-55. Despite this game owning the third-lowest total on the slate at 217 points, LeVert is priced too cheaply too ignore.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown at Toronto Raptors – $8,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Taking the savings on Jaylen Brown seems like the best route to go at small forward. Jayson Tatum implied that he may sit out tonight’s game due to knee soreness, and that makes sense in an island road game for the Celtics. In four games without Tatum this season, Brown is averaging 32.5 points, 10 rebounds, 51.9 DraftKings points and has attempted 27.3 field goals per game!
Using our On/Off Tool, Brown has a +4.9% usage rate and a team-high +5.7 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Tatum off the floor this season. Any way you spin it, Brown is one of the best plays on the slate if Tatum is confirmed out. Brown had 31 points and 10 rebounds in their victory last night, and he’s averaged 28.4 points per game while shooting 59.1% from the field in his last five games.
Top Value: Jonathan Kuminga at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
As I previously mentioned, the Warriors are going to be extremely short-handed tonight. They are double-digit underdogs on the road as they have basically conceded the second seed in the Western Conference. Jonathan Kuminga has been one of the best rookies this season, especially in situations like tonight when the Warriors have so many players out. He will be very involved.
Our Tournament Model has Kuminga projected to play 29 minutes and be one of the best values on the slate. The Grizzlies lead the league in Rebounding Percentage and rank in the top 10 of many defensive categories, but Kuminga is a cheap way to get exposure to the Warriors.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
After missing four-straight games due to injury, Julius Randle picked up right where he left off. He had 20 points, seven rebounds, and five assists for 40.3 DraftKings points. Randle also had a 32.9% usage rate as he attempted 18 field goal attempts in 31 minutes. The Knicks have won three-straight games, and Randle’s minutes will definitely increase from his 31 last game.
The Bulls have been a disappointing defense despite their record and struggle to defend the paint. Randle will get many opportunities, making him a solid play on FanDuel given his 96% Bargain Rating. His salary isn’t as appealing on DraftKings, but he should command reduced ownership.
Top Value: Greg Brown vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
The worst game on the slate is this matchup between the Trail Blazers and Thunder. Both teams are in full tank mode, but exposure to this game is necessary with how cheap their salaries are. This game also starts two hours after every other game tips off. Greg Brown is the best option in our model, but he is listed as questionable with an eye injury. Monitor the news on Brown, but there are a few other players in this price range that you can look to if he’s unable to suit up. Brown left last game early due to injury, but he had 31 DraftKings points just three games ago.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Charlotte Hornets – $12,200 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
The player with the highest salary and ceiling on the slate by a wide margin is Nikola Jokic. The matchup against the Hornets is absolute gold as they are coming off a game where they allowed 60 points in the paint against the Nets. The Hornets rank in the top five this season in pace, allowing 114.4 points per game. Jokic should feast in this easy matchup.
It is rare to find a highly-priced player representing the best value at his position, but Jokic’s salary on FanDuel is ridiculous. He has a 97% Bargain Rating as his salary has dropped for no reason. He just had 35 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists, and 70 DraftKings points in his last outing. He is easily the best pay-up option on the slate, and there is plenty of value to fit him into your lineups.
Top Value: Daniel Theis at Toronto Raptors– $3,700 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
The Celtics received some tough news today that Robert Williams suffered a torn meniscus which will rule him out indefinitely moving forward. What makes it even tougher is they just climbed to first place in the Eastern Conference. With no Williams, the Celtics will need big minutes from Daniel Theis moving forward, especially with Al Horford also projected to be out on Monday.
The short-handed Celtics travel to Toronto in what is now the lowest total on the slate at 213 points. Theis has scored over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and will have a massive opportunity tonight with so many frontcourt players out of the lineup. Despite the low total, Theis is arguably the best value on the slate, and he is way too cheap with this much opportunity.
