The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Indiana Pacers – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
A few key absences will impact Monday’s eight-game slate, but the biggest one is Luka Doncic. He’s expected to be suspended after picking up his 16th technical foul in Sunday’s loss to the Hornets. The trade for Irving has been disastrous for the Mavs, and they have sunk all the way out of the Play-In Tournament after being embarrassingly swept by the Hornets.
However, despite the dysfunction, this matchup against the Pacers without Luka is too good of a spot to pass up Irving as an elite ceiling play available under $10K. Since joining the Mavs, Irving has played 15 games, averaging 43.1 DraftKings points and 41.8 FanDuel points per game with a 29.0% usage rate.
In March, though, his usage rate has increased to 33.9% with Luka off the floor, and he’s produced 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute in that situation.
The Pacers are an ideal matchup for Kyrie to attack, and he could end up with a monster stat line to prove that whatever is wrong in Dallas isn’t his fault. With plenty of usage and motivation, Irving brings a very high ceiling Monday.
Top Value: Shaedon Sharpe vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
The Blazers are another team expected to bring plenty of potential value due to having multiple players sidelined. With Damian Lillard (calf), Anfernee Simons (foot), Jerami Grant (quad), Jusuf Nurkic (calf) and Trendon Watford (ankle) all battling injuries —and the team shutting things down — there has been plenty of opportunities for first-round pick Shaedon Sharpe to step up. Sharpe is still just 19 years old but is already showing he has a bright future in the NBA.
On Monday’s slate, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and shooting guards on DraftKings and the seventh-highest at shooting guard on FanDuel, where he has been priced up.
Sharpe has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games with an average Plus/Minus of +14.5 DraftKings points and +13.7 FanDuel points. He has produced 1.04 DraftKings points and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute in those four games.
Sharpe led the team with a 28.8% usage rate over his team-high 73 minutes in the two games that Lillard has been sidelined, and he should be busy and involved again on Monday in a favorable home matchup against the Pelicans.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Utah Jazz – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Booker and the Suns will visit the short-handed Jazz on Monday night. In the matchup, he brings the second-highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings and FanDuel, trailing only Kyrie.
In the continued absence of Kevin Durant (ankle), Booker has been carrying the Suns on offense, with a 32.9% usage rate over his 14 games since the All-Star break. He’s projected for a similar usage rate on Monday night and will be looking to put up his fifth straight game of at least 29 points. That run of success was highlighted by a 46-point explosion against the Thunder last Sunday.
Booker had a 49-point game against the Jazz in Utah earlier this year, finishing with 78 DraftKings points and 75.6 FanDuel points in that contest. He followed that up a week later with 27 points and 11 rebounds on his way to 52.25 DraftKings points and 48.7 FanDuel points in the rematch.
He can clearly succeed in this matchup, and as long as the game stays competitive, Booker should be worth investing in on Monday.
Top Value: Tim Hardaway Jr. at Indiana Pacers – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Like Irving, Hardaway should get a significant bump in usage and production with Doncic sidelined. He is in the top seven of Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel and can flex over to small forward on both sites as well.
After missing two games, THJ had a questionable tag on Sunday due to illness but exceeded salary-based expectations with 28.25 DraftKings points and 28.5 FanDuel points while playing 36 minutes.
Since the All-Star break, Hardaway has produced 0.81 DraftKings points and 0.75 FanDuel points per minute with an 18.5% usage rate over 12 games. However, with Luka off the floor during that span, his usage rate jumps to 22.0%, producing 0.9 DraftKings points and 0.83 FanDuel points per minute.
Given that increase in usage and production and a tasty matchup against the Pacers, Hardaway is an excellent value play.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard vs. Chicago Bulls – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Without Paul George (knee), Kawhi will have to carry the load and muscle the Clippers into a good playoff position. Leonard was forced to leave Saturday’s game with a facial contusion but avoided a concussion and is expected to be available on Monday against Chicago.
In his 12 games since the All-Star break, he has produced 1.37 DraftKings points per minute and a 30.9% usage rate with George off the floor. Even with PG13, he gave the Bulls trouble in their earlier meeting this year, producing 33 points, 65.3 FanDuel points, and 60.5 DraftKings points in a five-point Clippers victory.
Leonard and the Clippers are still the No. 5 seed coming into the week but are just two games ahead of the Thunder, who currently sit in the tenth spot, the final spot of the Play-In Tournament. The postseason version of Kawhi is an elite producer, and I think he’ll show up a little early this year as he tries to propel the Clippers up the standings single-handedly.
Top Value: Nassir Little vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Little has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The big difference to Little’s projection is the injury sustained by Trendon Watford on Sunday. Once Watford left the floor, you can see Little’s increased involvement using our new Game Flow tool:
In his 31 minutes, Little finished with 28 points, six rebounds, 36 DraftKings points, and 33.2 FanDuel points. With such a bargain basement salary, Little makes a ton of sense at either forward spot on DraftKings and at small forward on FanDuel. He was the Blazers’ first-round pick in 2019, so this could be a chance for the team to get a long look at him over the next two weeks to see if he fits into their future plans.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Detroit Pistons – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Giannis brings the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate, as usual. In this juicy matchup with the up-tempo, defensively-challenged Pistons, he looks like a great value even at this elevated salary. In fact, he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at power forward on this slate.
His ceiling for this matchup depends on whether the Pistons can keep the matchup close. He has been putting up good numbers in all game scripts lately, averaging 54.1 DraftKings points and 53.1 FanDuel points per game since returning seven games ago. On a per-minute basis, though, he has been outproducing his impressive averages of 1.77 DraftKings points and 1.68 FanDuel points per minute this season with 1.87 DraftKings points and 1.75 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
He’s projected for 33.0 minutes and a 36.3% usage rate, which should open the door for a typical monster game from Giannis.
Top Value: T.J. Warren at Utah Jazz – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
The Suns have been working Warren into the rotation more over the past few games, and he’s a good value play in this favorable spot against the Jazz. He brings the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel.
In his first six weeks after re-joining the Suns, Warren was barely in the rotation, playing an average of just 6.4 minutes in the eight games he appeared and while picking up six DNP-CDs. However, he has played over 25 minutes in his past two games and outproduced salary-based expectations.
Warren had 15 points, 24.25 DraftKings points, and 25.1 FanDuel points in the first of those two games on the road in Sacramento, and then he followed that up with 16 points, eight rebounds, 31.0 DraftKings points and 31.6 FanDuel points on Saturday in a convincing win over the 76ers.
While “Scorin’ Warren” is still finding his stride and carving out his role, his offensive potential off the bench has been vital for the Suns in their past two games, and as a result, he has significant upside at this cheap salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Denver Nuggets – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
The clash of the titans lined up for Denver should be tons of fun as Embiid and Nikola Jokic go head-to-head. Well, we can hope it’s at least an epic clash of MVP hopefuls. Embiid is questionable with calf tightness, so the whole thing might get called off before it even begins. If that’s the case, Jokic is an easy pivot in what would immediately become a soft matchup, but if both players are active, Embiid stands out as the better option in our projections.
Embiid has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate, behind only Giannis, and is slightly cheaper than Jokic on FanDuel. He has been on an absolute rampage lately, averaging 33.9 points and 10.3 rebounds for 57.7 DraftKings points and 56.3 FanDuel points per game since the All-Star break. In those 16 contests, he has produced an elite 1.69 DraftKings points and 1.65 FanDuel points per minute.
When he took on Jokic and the Nuggets earlier this season, he dropped 47 points, 18 rebounds, 87.5 DraftKings points, and 85.1 FanDuel points in 38 minutes. Motivated to show his supremacy over the back-to-back MVP, Embiid should be ready to smash the Nuggets on Monday night, as long as he can play through that pesky questionable tag.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Eubanks is another one of the Blazers who should continue to get plenty of work, and he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate behind only Little.
All the injuries have opened up opportunities for Eubanks, who has local roots and is a fan favorite in Oregon. The Shaq of Troutdale started each of the Blazers’ two most recent games on their current homestand, posting 27.75 DraftKings points and 29.9 FanDuel points against the Bulls on 12 points, seven boards, and a block. He was even more impressive Sunday against the Thunder, racking up 38 DraftKings points and 43 FanDuel points on seven points, 10 boards, and six blocks.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his four most recent games and should be set to deliver an excellent return on minimal investment once again vs. the Pelicans.
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