The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Houston Rockets – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
The Warriors have the highest Implied Team Total of the 12 teams on the slate as they head into Houston to take on the Rockets. That matchup also has the highest over/under of all six of Monday’s games and should be a very favorable matchup. Since the team is expected to put up so many points against the Rockets’ so-so defense, it isn’t surprising that Curry has one of the highest ceiling projections on the entire slate. He has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the second-highest of all players at all positions, behind only Joel Embiid.
Curry is looking to bounce back from a down night in Memphis on Saturday, but he was cooking before that with at least 29 points in five of his previous six games. During that run, he had a 40-point game against the Thunder and a 50-point game against the Clippers. Both big games came on the road, and the Warriors lost both contests despite his big numbers.
He has also been adding good non-scoring numbers since returning from his latest injury, producing 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute in his last seven games while averaging 48.5 DraftKings points and 44.6 FanDuel points per game.
In what should be a high-octane matchup with plenty of scoring, Curry is a solid pick to deliver a 50-burger and comes at a relatively affordable salary, especially on DraftKings.
Top Value: Terry Rozier vs. Indiana Pacers – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
The Hornets and Pacers meet in another game that should feature plenty of offense and fantasy goodness. In his expanded role following the injury to LaMelo Ball (ankle), Rozier brings good upside with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on FanDuel and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
In his nine games in March, Rozier has produced a team-high 37.8 DraftKings points and 36.6 FanDuel points per game at a rate of 1.06 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute. Over that span, he also leads the team with a 29.4% usage rate.
The Pacers have been very generous to opposing guards and play at a fast pace that should result in plenty of chances for Scary Terry to post a considerable number. Rozier has flashed a ceiling of nearly 50 fantasy points of late, and he could get there in this matchup. He trails only Curry among Monday’s point guards in ceiling projection on DraftKings, and he trails only Kyrie Irving (foot, questionable) at shooting guard on FanDuel. Even if he doesn’t reach his ceiling, he should be able to return excellent value.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane at Dallas Mavericks – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
With Ja Morant still not quite ready to return after his lengthy layoff, Bane should be busy again on Monday against the Mavs. He may get even more work since Jaren Jackson Jr. (calf) is also questionable. Bane has the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He can also slide to small forward on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest ceiling projection and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
In the eight games that Morant has missed, Bane has a 27.1% usage rate, producing 1.1 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute. He has at least 21 points in five of his past six games, with over 43 DraftKings points in three. Two of those strong performances came in this matchup in a home-and-home set with the Mavs, so look for Bane to continue to cause problems for Dallas in this rematch.
You can see how Bane’s big game in Dallas went down with our new Game Flow tool:
Top Value: Ochai Agbaji vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
The Jazz have been short-handed for their past few games, but it has opened up a good opportunity for Agbaji to step into a large enough role to be a value play. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings and any shooting guard under $5K on FanDuel. He can also flex over to small forward on DraftKings, where he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Agbaji has outperformed salary-based expectations on FanDuel in nine of his past 10 games with an Average Plus/Minus of +3.63 FanDuel points and +3.22 DraftKings points. In those 10 games, he has averaged 11.7 points in 28.7 minutes per game and produced 0.67 DraftKings points and 0.62 FanDuel points per minute.
Facing the Kings should be a good spot for the Jazz, and Agbaji could get even more work if Lauri Markkanen is unable to play.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Markkanen is questionable with a sore back, but he still brings the highest ceiling projection at small forward for Monday’s slate.
He led the Jazz to a big win on Saturday against the visiting Celtics with 28 points and 48.5 DraftKings points. He has produced over 42 DraftKings points with at least 28 points in four of his past five games since missing one game earlier this month against the Thunder. In that five-game span, he has a 30.2% usage rate and has produced 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute.
As long as he’s available for his typical workload, Markkanen should bring a high ceiling Monday.
Top Value: Taurean Prince at New York Knicks – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Prince has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the entire slate on DraftKings and is also in the top five on FanDuel. He leads both sites at small forward and falls just behind P.J. Washington on FanDuel at power forward.
With Anthony Edwards (ankle, questionable) missing his first game of the season on Sunday, Prince started and played 30 minutes against the Raptors. He finished with an uninspiring total of 8.0 DraftKings points and 6.4 FanDuel points, but it was encouraging that he had a 15.6% usage rate.
Prince did show more upside earlier this month, posting at least eight points in six straight games coming off the bench. Even though he probably won’t score many points, his non-scoring numbers are enough to make him worth a flier play as a cheap option at forward if Edwards misses a second straight game.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Randle and the Knicks came home from their road trip and knocked off the Nuggets on Saturday afternoon, and they’ll look to get another win against the Western Conference as they host the Timberwolves on Monday. Randle has the highest ceiling projection of all power forwards on DraftKings and the second-highest at the position on FanDuel.
Without Karl-Anthony Towns, the Timberwolves have had to go smaller in the frontcourt, which should set up a good matchup for Randle. In almost every matchup, Randle is sure to get a heavy workload since coach Tom Thibodeau always plays his starters plenty of minutes. In his 12 games since the All-Star break, Randle has averaged 36.2 minutes per game with a 32.1% usage rate.
He had 31 points against the Wolves in their first meeting of the season and is a good ceiling play at power forward in this rematch.
Top Value: P.J. Washington vs. Indiana Pacers – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Washington has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He had a down game against the 76ers on Friday, but he has still produced over 25 DraftKings points in five of his past six games and should get a boost in this matchup.
Over those six games, Washington has posted a 24.4% usage rate and produced 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.86 FanDuel points per minute.
His salary spiked after the Ball injury, but it has dropped back to a reasonable figure vs. the Pacers. That makes him a solid value to build around at power forward or center, especially in a good, up-tempo matchup.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Embiid and the Sixers continue to surge toward the top of the Eastern Conference, and the big man has now scored at least 31 points in nine straight games to start the month of March. In a smash spot against the Bulls, Embiid has the highest ceiling projection on the board by a wide margin, even if Luka Doncic (thigh, questionable) can return from his absence.
In his nine games in March, Embiid has produced a ridiculous 1.73 DraftKings points and 1.69 FanDuel points per minute. He has eight consecutive games with over 50 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel and posted massive double-doubles against the Cavs and Hornets before calming down a little with just seven rebounds in 30 minutes in a comfortable win over the Pacers.
Embiid has been posting huge numbers even in blowouts recently, so he should again be set for success against the Bulls, especially since he’ll be at home, where he has scored at least 39 points in three of his four most recent contests.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations are also bullish on Embiid’s prospects to deliver another strong outing:
Top Value: Naz Reid at New York Knicks – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Since the Knicks usually play bigger lineups, Reid may play more minutes than usual. Rudy Gobert (ankle) has also become a regular on the injury report, and he’s questionable again for Monday. Reid becomes a must-play if Gobert is ruled out, but even with Gobert playing through the injury, Reid has been doing enough to be a solid value play, especially on DraftKings.
Reid has scored double-digit points in nine of his past 10 games, even though he has come off the bench in nine of them. He only played 20 minutes on Saturday against Toronto but quickly stacked up 22 points, 26.3 FanDuel points, and 28 DraftKings points. On DraftKings, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his 10 most recent contests with an Average Plus/Minus of +7.02 DraftKings points.
The cheap options aren’t quite as strong on FanDuel, but it would be worth considering Nick Richards, Xavier Tillman, or Kelly Olynyk, especially if Markkanen sits out.
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