The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham at New York Knicks – $10,300 DraftKings
Leading all point guards in projected ceiling and highest salary is Pistons’ four-year point guard Cade Cunningham. He is coming off his seventh triple-double of the season in a victory over the Raptors with 22 points, 17 assists, and 10 rebounds. Take away his dud against the Nets, and Cunningham is averaging over 62 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He is one of the best pay-up options on the slate.
After a relatively slow start to the season, the Pistons have been on a roll, winning nine of their last 11 games. Cunningham has been the main reason why leading the team in points, assists, and steals per game. They are 7.5-point road underdogs against the Knicks tonight, but Cunningham has been playing too well to ignore. The best part is Cunningham is currently drawing less than 5% ownership tonight.
Top Value: Stephon Castle at Los Angeles Lakers – $3,600 DraftKings
Spurs’ rookie Stephon Castle guard is a boom-or-bust fantasy producer but is priced where he does not need to do much to return value. With point guard and shooting guard eligibility, Castle will be easy to fit into any lineup build with his $3,600 salary. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games and has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate tonight. Castle is an elite value play.
Keep an eye on the status of this game in Los Angeles. With the wildfires, the Lakers have had their last two home games postponed. If they are able to play, Castle is arguably the best value play on the entire slate. He has averaged 9.6 points, 4.4 assists, and 19.5 DraftKings points per game, with a 23.1% usage rate in his last five games. Castle is simply too cheap for his role with the Spurs right now.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Washington Wizards – $9,000 DraftKings
After three-straight dominating performances, Anthony Edwards has back-to-back poor games including scoring less than 30 DraftKings points in his most recent game. However, the Timberwolves are 13.5-point road favorites against the Wizards, implied for 118.5 points. The Wizards are one of the best matchups for opponents. They rank dead last in defensive rating and fourth in pace, allowing 122.7 points per game.
Edwards has taken another leap in his career progression, averaging a career-high 4.2 made 3-pointers per game while shooting 42.1% from behind the arc this season. To no surprise, the Wizards have been torched from long distance. They are allowing a league-high 40.5 3-point attempts per game, with opponents shooting 36.3% from deep. Edwards is a strong option in all formats with his $9,000 salary.
Top Value: Jalen Green vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,800 DraftKings
Ever since Jabari Smith Jr. was injured, Jalen Green has taken a major step forward. In his last four games without Smith Jr. in the lineup, Green has a positive Plus/Minus in each game while averaging 29 points and 45.2 DraftKings points per game with a 30.2% usage rate. Even with his salary rising to $6,800, Green is arguably the best mid-range play on the slate. He has completely taken over the Rockets offense.
The Rockets are two-point home favorites in the best game environment on the slate, with a total of 236 points. The Grizzlies lead the league in pace at 105.28 while allowing 92.5 field goal attempts per game. Green will have plenty of opportunity to hunt his shot and sneak near the optimal lineup build. With Smith Jr. out of the lineup this season, Green has a +4.22 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes vs. Golden State Warriors – $8,900 DraftKings
This has likely been another lost season for the Raptors, who are a league-worst 8-31 this season. They have lost an incredible 16 of their last 17 games and are 5.5-point home underdogs against the Warriors tonight. Despite many losses, Scottie Barnes continues to shine, averaging career-highs across the board in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game. He is one of the best two-way players in the league.
Barnes has recorded a double-double in back-to-back games and notoriously flirts with triple-doubles. His usage rate can fluctuate, but Barnes, when playing to his ceiling, is an amazing play in all formats. The Warriors are a relatively difficult matchup for anyone. They rank eighth in defensive rating and 11th in rebounding percentage. That will keep Barnes’ ownership in check, making him a great contrarian option.
Top Value: Jaden McDaniels at Washington Wizards – $4,200 DraftKings
Jaden McDaniels surpassed 20 points for just the second time all season last game, scoring 21 points on 9-for-12 shooting from the field and 3-for-4 from behind the arc. He added six rebounds, three steals, two blocks, and one assist for 41 DraftKings points. McDaniels has been playing great recently with a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games despite his usage rate fluctuating all over the place.
For players priced under $5,000, McDaniels is drawing the most ownership on the slate at 23%. McDaniels is projected to play 30 minutes, but be very productive when he is on the floor. Not only are the Wizards bad defensively, but they also give up 9.7 steals and 5.7 blocks per game, which feeds right into the floor for McDaniels. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Timberwolves’ extremely high team total tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,500 DraftKings
The Lakers have not played since last Tuesday, giving the 40-year-old LeBron James a mini bye week. James has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers recently scoring over 45 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games. During that stretch, James is averaging 27.6 points, 8.4 assists, 6.9 rebounds, and 52.5 DraftKings points per game with one triple-double and three double-doubles.
The Lakers have won both of their games against the Spurs this season, and James has been the main reason for their success. He posted a triple-double in both contests, averaging 15.5 points, 13 rebounds, and 11.5 assists per game. Among the pay-up options on this six-game slate, James is projected for the highest ownership in that group. In fact, he has the second-highest projected ownership on the slate.
Top Value: Draymond Green at Toronto Raptors – $5,700 DraftKings
Draymond Green was unable to play Friday’s game due to a back injury and is questionable to play tonight. However, if he is able to suit up, Green looks incredible at his mid-range $5,700 salary. He is projected for a slate-high 31% ownership with power forward and center eligibility. Another big factor to Green’s projections is Jonathan Kuminga is still out with an injury, which significantly helps Green tonight.
Without Kuminga on the floor this season, Green has played the most minutes for the Warriors and has a +1.38% usage rate increase and a team-high 26.72% assist rate. The Raptors rank 28th in defensive rating, while opponents are averaging 119.2 points per game. This is a matchup that Green can exploit in a multitude of ways. If he is able to play tonight, Green is another strong mid-range value option to target.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama at Los Angeles Lakers – $11,300 DraftKings
Leading this six-game slate in projected ceiling is the cheat code Victor Wembanyama. The last game against the Bucks was a disappointment for Wembanyama. He recorded a 10-point, 10-rebound double-double but only produced 35 DraftKings points, which will not be valuable at his price tag. However, he recorded over 63 DraftKings points in his previous three games. In those three ceiling performances, Wembanyama averaged an impressive 26 points, 18.3 rebounds, and 65.6 DraftKings points per game with 14 blocks.
The Lakers have been a favorable matchup for opposing big men. They have allowed 52.4 points per game in the paint and have a 48.4% rebounding percentage, both of which rank near the bottom of the league. Projected for less than 5% ownership, Wembanyama is an easy way to differentiate lineups.
Top Value: Rudy Gobert at Washington Wizards – $5,200 DraftKings
Last but not least is the best value play on the slate with Timberwolves’ center Rudy Gobert. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus and has a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games. During that stretch, Gobert is averaging a near double-double with 9.3 points and 12 rebounds per game while shooting 11-for-14 from the field. Gobert’s salary has simply fallen too much for this fantastic matchup.
The Wizards interior defense has been nonexistent this season. They rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game and 28th in rebounding percentage. This is a fantastic opportunity for Gobert to record a double-double. At his cheap price tag, that would easily exceed his value-based expectations. The Timberwolves have plenty of options to target, but make sure to prioritize Gobert at his price point.
