The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Washington Wizards – $10,400 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
The top rated player in our Tournament Model tonight on DraftKings is Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He has the second-highest projected ceiling and projected Plus/Minus on the slate. His $10,400 salary on DraftKings is simply too cheap. Gilgeous-Alexander has a 95% Bargain Rating and has returned a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 10 games. Over that time, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 33.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.8 steals per game.
What makes Gilgeous-Alexander look even better amongst his peers is the elite matchup against the Wizards. Coming into tonight, the Wizards rank last in defensive rating at 121.6 and second in pace. They are allowing a league-high 126.1 points per game, while opponents are shooting 50.2% from the field.
It’s hard to find a better spot than Gilgeous-Alexander tonight.
Top Value: Kris Dunn at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
There are a few decent point guard values today, but Kris Dunn looks like one of the best pay-down options on the slate. Two weeks ago on DraftKings, he was priced at $6,300 against the Raptors. His salary has plummeted by $2,000 to where now he is popping as an elite value play. Dunn has proven the ability to fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways. His recent game logs are not pretty, but he will likely draw another start for the Jazz and is projected to play around 22 minutes.
Since the Bucks traded away Jrue Holiday, their perimeter defense has taken a major hit. Now, to make matters worse, Damian Lillard and Cameron Payne are both out, which makes this a pretty good matchup for the Jazz starting point guard.
Dunn has dual eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel and we’ll need his cheap salary to pay up for the studs.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Khris Middleton vs. Utah Jazz – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Priced at $7,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Khris Middleton has the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position tonight. Bucks’ point guards Damian Lillard and Cameron Payne are both out, which will flood more ball-handling duties to Middleton. With Lillard off the floor this season, Middleton has posted a team-high +8.2% usage rate and a +4.09 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Due to his soft price tag, Middleton is projected to be the highest-owned player on both sites tonight.
The Bucks are in a great spot at home against the Jazz, where they have a 16-3 record. They are 8.5-point favorites, implied for 125.75 points. The Jazz are another matchup worth exploiting, especially on the road. Their defensive rating dips from 113.6 to 122.8 when playing at home versus on the road this season. Middleton is arguably the best play on the entire slate.
Top Value: Jalen Green at Miami Heat – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
After complaining about his role, Jalen Green has taken matters into his own hands and is shooting the ball early and often. In his last six games, Green is averaging 21 points on 15.7 field goals and 8.8 3-point attempts per game. His usage rate has climbed to 27.7% over that time. It certainly helps that his teammates Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason are still out due to injury, allowing Green to take over even more offensively. Priced in the mid-range, Green is a solid option in all formats.
The Heat rank outside the top 10 in defensive rating, mainly because they struggle on the perimeter defensively. Especially with a few key pieces out, the Heat allow 36.2 3-point attempts per game, which is the 10th-highest in the league. Green looks a little better on FanDuel with the limited shooting guard options to choose from.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown at Indiana Pacers – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
With Jayson Tatum out for tonight’s game, Jaylen Brown is the immediate beneficiary. With Tatum off the floor this season, Brown has averaged a team-high +6.51 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +3.1% usage rate. Brown ranks second behind Tatum in nearly every statistic, including points, usage rate, and field goal attempts. In his two games played without Tatum, Brown is averaging 29.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game while shooting 59.5% from the field and 55.6% from deep.
Brown will get a rematch against a Pacers defense that he just poured in 31 points against on Saturday night. In that game, he shot 13-for-20 from the field. The Pacers continue to be electric on offense, playing at the fastest pace in the league at 103.61. They are the opposite on defense, ranking 26th in defensive rating and allowing the second-most points per game.
Top Value: Deni Avdija vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Deni Avdija has been one of the lone bright spots for the Wizards this season. He has taken a major leap in his fourth year, averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists while shooting 49.8% from the field. Avdija has a triple-double upside and nearly had one in his last game, finishing with 23 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists against a difficult Knicks defense. Priced at $6,400 across the industry, he is another great mid-range value play that fits nicely in all lineup builds.
The Wizards are double-digit home underdogs against the Thunder, but this game features the highest total on the slate at 246.5 points. This game environment will set up plenty of opportunities for Avdija to pay off his price tag. He has posted 40 or more DraftKings points in three of his last five games, and that will be more than enough at this salary on tonight’s slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Utah Jazz – $11,700 DraftKings, $12,800 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most expensive he has been all season on FanDuel at $12,800. The rising salary is due to his incredible play lately and the fact that Damian Lillard will be out tonight. Giannis has been returning a positive Plus/Minus with ease by dominating the glass and scoring at will. He has averaged 46 points and 15.5 rebounds per game in his last two games while shooting 35-for-53 from the field. Giannis still has the third-highest usage rate in the league at 33.2%.
The Jazz have been a fantastic rebounding team, which may limit his’ ceiling a little bit, but not enough to decrease exposure. As previously discussed with Middleton, the Jazz are so much worse on the road defensively than at home. Giannis has the highest projected ceiling on the slate, and there is enough value, especially on his own team, to fit him in.
Top Value: Nikola Jovic vs. Houston Rockets – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Over the last two games, Heat forward Nikola Jovic has been given more opportunities to showcase his skillset. He has played 28 and 24 minutes in his last two games. His production has been all over the map. He finished with 30 DraftKings points in one game and only 10 in the other. There is some risk associated with Jovic, but he is projected to play over 25 minutes in this matchup. It helps that Jimmy Butler is out, and Cody Martin is in danger of missing his sixth-straight game.
In his second year with the Heat, Jovic is shooting the ball much better than his rookie season. Despite the limited field goal attempts, he is shooting 51.4% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. Over half of his attempts have come from long distance, which increases his floor. Jovic is an exceptional value on FanDuel, where he is projected for 40% ownership.
Center
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Houston Rockets – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
The center position is the weakest on the slate, with no real studs to pay up for. The top two options are playing against each other in Alperen Sengun and Bam Adebayo. Their salaries, projections, and ownership are nearly identical, so choose wisely. My slight edge is given to Adebayo, who will continue to play without Jimmy Butler. In the 10 games played without Butler, Adebayo is averaging a double-double with 21.9 points and 10.6 rebounds while playing 3.6 more minutes per game.
The Heat are four-point home favorites in what will likely be a low-scoring game. In their two previous meetings, Adebayo has gotten the better of Sengun. He is averaging 19 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while shooting 57.7% from the field. Sengun has improved on both ends of the floor, but Adebayo will be getting a little more usage without Butler on the floor.
Top Value: Bobby Portis vs. Utah Jazz – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
The last Bucks player worth getting exposure to on tonight’s slate is power forward and center-eligible Bobby Portis. He has the eighth-highest projected ownership on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. Having dual eligibility makes it easy to fit Portis into all lineup builds. Due to his recent play, Portis’ salary has been kept in check. His game logs will not draw too much attention, but with the matchup and Damian Lillard being out, Portis is a strong value play in all formats.
Portis hasn’t returned value in five consecutive games. However, before that stretch, Portis scored double-digit points in eight of his previous nine games. This matchup suits Portis well with his ability to stretch the floor. Portis has made at least one 3-pointer per game in eight straight seasons. The Jazz are allowing opponents to shoot 37.8 3-pointers per game, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league.
