The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Irving has the third-highest ceiling projection on the slate as he leads his short-handed Nets against the Lakers, who will also be without superstars Anthony Davis (foot) and LeBron James (ankle). While Patrick Beverley has been playing good defense lately, the Lakers have still been a very favorable matchup for point guards this season, and Irving has a +2.12 Opponent Plus/Minus as a result.
Irving has had to carry the load for Brooklyn while Kevin Durant (knee) has been sidelined and has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six straight contests with at least 52 DraftKings points in each.
During his recent six-game run of success, he has averaged 63.7 DraftKings points on 36.3 points, 7.8 assists, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.3 steals in 39.3 minutes with a 34.8% usage rate.
He has the third-highest usage projection on the entire slate on Monday and should be able to take advantage of the Lakers without their top players.
Top Value: Russell Westbrook at Brooklyn Nets – $7,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
The absence of James and Davis should also make Westbrook a strong play since he’ll be in a much more significant role in the team’s rotation. He and his teammate Dennis Schroder have the top two Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on DraftKings and FanDuel, with Schroder having a slight advantage on DraftKings (where he is cheaper) and Westbrook claiming the top spot on FanDuel.
With James and Davis off the floor this season, Westbrook has a team-high 35% usage rate and produces 1.3 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute. He had 48 and 43.25 DraftKings points in the two most recent games without his fellow stars and should again step up to shoulder the load in this contest.
There’s a chance this game turns into a blowout, but Westbrook should be able to pick up enough work to be a strong option to build around. He’s likely to be popular, but that’s due to his elite ceiling at a price under $8K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you don’t have the salary available for Russ, Schroder is a more affordable play to consider as well, and there are some other strong Lakers’ options discussed below.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
The Hawks and Trail Blazers meet in a fun late matchup from the West Coast, and one of the key News Updates to watch is whether or not Trae Young (ankle, questionable) is able to play. Even with Trae in the projections, Murray had the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and the sixth-highest at the position on FanDuel. If Young is ultimately ruled out, he’ll get even more work and offer an elite ceiling at a pretty reasonable salary in a favorable matchup.
Murray had 42.2 FanDuel points on 15 points, eight assists, six rebounds, two steals, and a block in 39 minutes on Saturday, and he has posted over 42 FanDuel points in five of his past eight games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those five games and can stuff the stat sheet when given extra work.
Even with Trae able to play, there’s a good enough chance that he’ll be limited to make Murray worth considering, and he becomes almost a must-play if Young is sidelined.
Top Value: Alec Burks at Dallas Mavericks – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Burks has been a part of the Pistons’ plans for dealing with the long-term absence of Cade Cunningham (leg), but he had been coming off the bench until two games ago when coach Dwayne Casey moved him into the starting five. On Monday’s slate, Burks has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
In his two most recent games since moving into the lineup in place of Killian Hayes, Burks has scored 20 and 21 points. He has knocked down a total of nine three-pointers while shooting 60% from long-range. While there’s no way he stays that hot long-term, he’s worth a look while he’s on such a heater for a team in desperate need of offense like Detroit.
Burks is also usually good for a few non-scoring numbers and has been able to post 35 and 25.4 FanDuel points in his past two games with the help of 3.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists in addition to his 20.5 points per contest.
The Dallas-Detroit matchup might not be the most watchable game of the night, but Burks brings good bargain potential if he stays in the starting five and remains so involved for the Pistons.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Edwards has the highest ceiling projection at small forward on both FanDuel and DraftKings, where he also has the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard.
The No. 1 pick from the 2020 NBA Draft has been balling out this season and continues to put up great numbers every night. He had been on and off the injury report as questionable with several different injuries but has not missed a game all season. He also continues to be effective through the issues, exceeding even his elevated salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games.
Edwards has scored over 30 points and posted at least 52 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. In that five-game stretch, he has posted an impressive 34.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.2 blocks in 37.8 minutes per game for an average of 56.9 DraftKings points per game.
The Timberwolves will host the Kings for a second straight game in Minnesota. In their first meeting on Saturday, Edwards had 58 FanDuel points and 62.5 DraftKings points on 34 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, two steals, and a block. Sacramento had no answers for him in that contest, and I don’t see them slowing him down in the rematch, either.
Getting Edwards at this salary under $10K is a nice value given his recent production level, and he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel.
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Top Value: Dorian Finney-Smith vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Finney-Smith is the only small forward on FanDuel with a higher projected Plus/Minus than Edwards, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings behind only bargain play Aaron Wiggins.
DFS has outperformed salary-based expectations in six of his past eight games, even though his salary has climbed due to the absence of Christian Wood (thumb). While Luka Doncic (ankle, questionable) may return, Wood will miss this matchup with the Pistons, opening both playing time and production opportunities for Finney-Smith.
Since returning from his injury, DFS has averaged 11.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.0 steal for 27 DraftKings points per game. He stepped up with a huge double-double against the Suns last Thursday, posting 42 DraftKings points on 18 points and 12 boards. He brings that kind of ceiling and a relatively high floor since he should soak up plenty of minutes in a favorable matchup against the struggling Pistons.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma at San Antonio Spurs – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
The Wizards have the second-highest Implied Team Total on the slate as they visit the Spurs, who have been the worst defensive team in the NBA by almost every metric this season. Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis have the top two ceiling projections at power forward on DraftKings and the third and fourth highest on FanDuel. Porzingis is just coming off an injury and costs a little more, so Kuzma seems like the stronger play in this juicy matchup.
Kuz had a rough shooting performance on Saturday, going just 4-of-13 from the field and totaling only 10 points and 32.75 DraftKings points. Before that downer, though, he had been cruising with at least 25 points in four straight games and at least 52 DraftKings points in three of those four contests.
In his past seven games, he has also been doing good work on the glass, with at least nine boards in five contests and an average of 9.1 rebounds per game. His rebounding numbers may take a slight hit with Porzingis back in the mix, but he still has the potential to go off for a big double-double in San Antonio.
Top Value: Rui Hachimura at Brooklyn Nets – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Kuzma’s former teammate should be in store for more work in his new home with LeBron and AD not playing. Especially on DraftKings, where he is still barely over $4K, Rui brings a ton of upside as a good value play.
Hachimura has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only his teammate Thomas Bryant.
In each of his two games with the Lakers, Hachimura played over 21 minutes. He had 12 points, six rebounds, and 23.7 FanDuel points in his L.A. debut against the Spurs and then posted six points, four rebounds, and 12.3 FanDuel points against the Celtics on Saturday.
While neither of those totals leaps out of the box score, his expected increased usage is enough to make him a value play against the Nets. He showed what he can do with a significant workload by dropping 30 points against the Magic in his final game with Washington before the trade.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Orlando Magic – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Embiid has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only Doncic. Like Luka, Embiid has a questionable tag, but Embiid has been able to play through his injury lately and was even on the sidelines for the Eagles’ NFC Championship win on Sunday.
On Saturday, Embiid went off for a massive 87.5 DraftKings points in his showdown with Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. In that game, he finished with 47 points and 18 rebounds in 38 minutes while adding five assists, three steals, and a pair of blocked shots.
Embiid has over 55 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, averaging 36.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.4 steals in 35 minutes per game.
He hasn’t played against the Magic this season, but it should be a smash spot for him as long as his injury isn’t more of an issue than expected.
Top Value: Thomas Bryant at Brooklyn Nets – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Bryant developed into a strong play while Davis was sidelined for over a month, and he’ll get a chance to run it back with AD sitting out Monday on the front half of the back-to-back. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, just behind Nic Claxton on the other side of this same matchup.
In the last 10 games Davis missed, Bryant averaged 15.4 points and 8.7 rebounds while posting four double-doubles. He had 31 points, 14 rebounds, and 55.5 DraftKings points in one of those games against the Blazers, showing his upside if the work comes his way.
There’s lots of value available from the Lakers without their stars, and Bryant should be one of several options to outproduce expectations in this favorable matchup Monday night.
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