The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Orlando Magic – $11,800 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
At this point, it doesn’t matter how much Luka Doncic costs or the matchup, as he is going to be a priority on any given slate. After scoring a career-high 73 points on Friday night, Doncic followed that up with a 28-point, 17-assist, 10-rebound triple-double Saturday night. Over his last five games, Doncic is averaging 40.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, 11.2 assists, and 79.75 DraftKings points per game. To no one’s surprise, Doncic has the highest projected ceiling in our Tournament model tonight.
Kyrie Irving has already been ruled out for the Mavericks, which will give a boost to Doncic’s production. In 17 games without Irving this season, Doncic is averaging 37.1 points, 11.1 assists, and 9.1 rebounds per game. His playing time has also increased from 35.2 to 40.1 minutes per night. Prioritize Doncic on DraftKings where he has an 86% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jalen Brunson at Charlotte Hornets – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Priced at $9,300 on both sites, Jalen Brunson is certainly not cheap, but he has the highest-projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position on FanDuel and the second highest behind Doncic on DraftKings. Knicks forward Julius Randle suffered an injury last game that will sideline him for the next few weeks. That will open up a great opportunity for Brunson. In his two games played without Randle last season, Brunson averaged 37.5 points per game with a 37.2% usage rate.
Not only is Randle unable to play tonight, but Brunson’s matchup against the Hornets is elite. They rank last in defensive rating at 121.3 while allowing 120.5 points per game. Brunson is averaging a career-high 26.6 points per game and is shooting 42.6% from behind the arc. This matchup sets up perfectly for Brunson with the Hornets allowing opponents to shoot 50.2% from the field and a league-high 40.1% from downtown. He is a fantastic play in every lineup build tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Mikal Bridges vs. Utah Jazz – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
With difficult matchups for all of the highest-priced shooting guards, Mikal Bridges enters tonight with one of the highest projected Plus/Minuses at the position. Bridges has been a streaky player when it comes to fantasy production this season. Over his last 10 games, he has six games within 30 to 36 DraftKings points and three with over 50 DraftKings points. His usage rate fluctuates, which makes him harder to project. However, Bridges is still the Nets’ leading scoring this season.
Ben Simmons is finally expected back, but that may be helpful rather than a hindrance. In his six games playing alongside Simmons, Bridges averaged more points per game and shot 51% from the field. The matchup against the Jazz is what makes this an even better spot for Bridges than his peers. He is projected for around 15-20% ownership on both sites.
Top Value: Jalen Green vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
The Rockets shooting guard Jalen Green is playing some of the best basketball of his young career right now. He is coming off back-to-back double-doubles averaging 27.5 points and 10 rebounds per game during that time. Green’s usage rate and field goal attempts are increasing rapidly over the month of January. Green is second on the Rockets in scoring despite shooting 40.6% from the field and 31.8% from downtown. He is not afraid to let it fly, which is ideal for rostering him in DFS.
The Rockets are one-point home underdogs against the Lakers who have won five of their last seven games. With a game total over 230 points, this is a great spot to get exposure to the young Rockets shooting guard. Given how well Green has played lately with the cheap mid-range salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is a strong cash-game consideration.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Houston Rockets – $9,400 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
The top of the small forward position comes down to LeBron James or Jayson Tatum. James gets the slight nod due to the Celtics being fully healthy. There is always a chance that James is inactive after playing a season-high 48 minutes in an overtime victory over the Warriors Saturday night. James erupted in that game with a 36-point, 20-rebound, 12-assist triple-double while shooting 14-for-25 from the field. The 39-year-old still has a lot left in the tank, which is incredible to watch.
James has been extremely efficient shooting the ball this season with 52.1% from the field and 39.9% from behind the arc. Prioritize James on DraftKings tonight where he is $1,000 cheaper than FanDuel. He has a 93% Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends. Always keep an eye on the status of James and Anthony Davis, but they are both better options on DraftKings.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo at Charlotte Hornets – $5,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Priced under $6,000 on both sites, Donte DiVincenzo will also benefit from the absence of Julius Randle. In his first year with the Knicks, DiVincenzo is averaging a career-high 11.4 points per game while shooting 42.2% from behind the arc. His peripheral stats have been down from years past, but now that Randle is out, there is more production to go around. DiVincenzo is a value play that looks fantastic on FanDuel. He is projected for a slate-high 53% projected ownership tonight.
The Knicks will have no trouble scoring on the Hornets despite Randle being sidelined. DiVincenzo has been playing well lately, with a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last 10 games. In fact, he has scored double-digit points in 14 of his last 15 games while averaging 15.1 points per game during that time. DiVincenzo is simply too cheap for his projected output.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Washington Wizards – $8,900 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
With Giannis Antetokounmpo only on the DraftKings slate, our top power forward option is the Spurs’ No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama. For some reason, Wembanyama is only $8,900 on DraftKings tonight compared to $10,300 on FanDuel. He is still drawing nearly 20% ownership on FanDuel but looks great on DraftKings with a 96% Bargain Rating.
Despite barely sniffing 30 minutes, Wembanyama has a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 11 games and is averaging a near double-double with 24.8 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. He has a ridiculous 38.7% usage rate over that time. Not only is Wembanyama a monster scoring and rebounding the ball, but he also leads the league with 3.1 blocks per game. This matchup against the Wizards sets up perfectly for a ceiling game with them allowing 5.6 blocks per game this season.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Utah Jazz – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Cameron Johnson has small forward and power forward eligibility and is the most popular power forward on the slate tonight. Similar to his teammate Mikal Bridges, Johnson is a streaky fantasy producer. He is still attempting over half of his field goals from downtown, which makes it difficult to pay off his price tag if his shot isn’t falling. However, Johnson is shooting nearly 40% once again from distance this season and has increased his peripherals since playing with the Nets.
The Jazz have been susceptible to the deep ball all season long. They are allowing opponents to shoot 37 three-pointers per game at a 37.8% clip, both of which rank in the bottom 10 of the league. If Johnson can start cooking from the perimeter, he will easily pay off his mid-range salary. Johnson is a fantastic cash-game option and provides salary relief in tournaments.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $11,300 DraftKings
Nikola Jokic is only available on DraftKings, but he is one of the top options on the slate, so he needs to be mentioned. Jokic has recorded over 60 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is projected for a similar output tonight against the Bucks. He has a positive Plus/Minus in each of those four games. At $11,300, Jokic is drawing 15% ownership.
The Bucks have been an exploitable defense this season, even in the paint. They are allowing 53.6 points per game in the paint, which is the seventh-highest in the league. The Bucks have also been an average rebounding team, which bodes well for Jokic, who is averaging 12 rebounds per game. Jokic is behind Luka Doncic in projected ceiling and is pulling a little bit less ownership, but he is also $500 cheaper on DraftKings. He is a worthy pay-up option on this large 11-game slate tonight.
Top Value: Nic Claxton vs. Utah Jazz – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Another Nets player worth getting exposure to is center Nic Claxton. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest behind Wembanyama on DraftKings. Claxton is projected to be a very popular value play across the industry. Priced under $7,000 on DraftKings, Claxton has a 91% Bargain Rating with 11 Pro Trends. He has a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 10 games while averaging a double-double with 14.5 points and 12.1 rebounds per game.
The Jazz have been a great rebounding team, but they struggle defending the paint where all of Claxton’s points come from. Nets backup center Day’Ron Sharpe is also still out, which solidifies the playing time for Claxton. With a projected close game and a 235.5-point total, Claxton will have plenty of opportunity to record his 11th double-double in his last 15 games.
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