The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Boston Celtics – $11,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
With Friday’s game getting canceled, Luka Doncic received a few extra days of rest for his nagging ankle injury. Doncic had a fantastic first game back against the Lakers. He recorded a triple-double with 33 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists, two blocks, and two steals. Doncic continues to rank second in the league in scoring and usage rate this season. He leads all players on this slate with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 12 on DraftKings.
Among the three players priced over $11,000 on DraftKings and over $12,000 on FanDuel, Doncic easily has the toughest matchup. The Mavericks are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Celtics, who have the second-best defensive rating in the league. Doncic will be the least popular pay-up option, but it is still a strong contrarian option worth getting exposure to.
Top Value: Jaden Ivey vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Jaden Ivey has the highest projected ownership on DraftKings and the seventh-highest on FanDuel. The Pistons are still without Cade Cunningham, which has boosted Ivey’s ceiling. In his six games without Cunningham this season, Ivey is averaging 22.2 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game with a 31.7% usage rate. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last seven games and is one of the best values on this seven-game slate for both sites tonight.
The Pistons are heavy underdogs but did compete against the Bucks in their last game. Ivey recorded 18 points, six rebounds, and six assists in the narrow six-point loss. He only shot 6-for-16 from the field but had a 28.1% usage rate. In the rematch, expect Ivey to play heavy minutes and be a focal point in the Pistons offense without Cunningham.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Orlando Magic – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
With Darius Garland and Evan Mobley still out for the Cavaliers, it is impossible not to get exposure to Donovan Mitchell. Even in a slow-paced game against the Magic with a slate-low 216-point total, Mitchell has displayed an incredible upside this season. Not only is he averaging 27.8 points per game, but Mitchell is also averaging career-highs in both rebounds and assists with over five per game. Caris LeVert is also questionable to play, which would make this spot look even better.
These two teams are going in the opposite direction. The Cavaliers have won seven consecutive games, while the Magic have lost five of their last seven. He has had no trouble in his two games against the Magic, averaging 28.5 points and 46.8 DraftKings points per game. Projected for less than 5% ownership on both sites, Mitchell is a strong contrarian option.
Top Value: Luke Kennard at Toronto Raptors – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
The Grizzlies are in desperation mode with a plethora of injuries, including guards Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and Derrick Rose. Luke Kennard has stepped into a starting role where his scoring is needed. Over his last six games, Kennard has scored double-digit points in each contest while averaging 13.7 points per game. He has shot 51.9% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. He has a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of those six games.
With shooting guard and small forward eligibility on FanDuel, Kennard is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate. His consistency in his last six games makes him a staple in cash game contests. The Raptors defense can be exploited on the perimeter. They are allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% from distance, which sets up perfectly for Kennard.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Dallas Mavericks – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Due to his recent stretch of mediocre games, Jayson Tatum‘s salary has been kept in check. Tatum has shot 35.5% from the field and 22.7% from long distance in his last three games. However, he has averaged a 31.3% usage rate during that time. Tatum will continue to be the focal point in the Celtics offense. He leads the team in points, rebounds, usage rate, and field goal attempts per game. Due to his relatively cheap salary, Tatum is drawing around 10-15% ownership on both sites.
The Mavericks are a much more enticing matchup than year’s past. They rank inside the top 10 in pace this season and are a below-average defensive team. Tatum has displayed the ability to capture double-digit rebounds, which boosts his ceiling. This is a great spot for Tatum to gobble up rebounds, with the Mavericks ranking 29th in rebounding percentage at 47.4%.
Top Value: RJ Barrett vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
RJ Barrett has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position on DraftKings and FanDuel. Priced in the mid-range, Barrett has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 11 games. Since joining the Raptors in early January, Barrett is averaging over 20 points per game while shooting 54.5% from the field. With the departure of Pascal Siakam, Barrett has also been averaging a career-high seven rebounds per game. He is a completely different player on the Raptors.
With all of the injuries to the Grizzlies, their defense and rebounding are starting to suffer drastically. The Raptors are seven-point home favorites, implied for 116.75 points. The Grizzlies now rank 25th in rebounding percentage, and without Raptors starting center Jakob Poeltl in the lineup, Barrett will flirt with double-digit rebounds and a double-double in this matchup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Detroit Pistons – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
Priced at $11,000 on DraftKings, Giannis Antetokounmpo has a 95% Bargain Rating, which is the highest among the stud options on this seven-game slate. Giannis is coming off his second near triple-double in back-to-back games, finishing with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists. The Bucks only beat the Pistons by six points on Saturday night but are 12-point road favorites in the rematch. Giannis has a fantastic opportunity for another ceiling performance in this matchup tonight.
The Pistons currently have the worst defensive rating in the league at 120.8. Opponents are shooting 49.6% against them from the field while allowing 55.4 points per game in the paint, which is tied for the fourth-highest in the league. Given how well Giannis has played lately and this elite matchup, he is one of the best tournament plays on the slate at 10% ownership.
Top Value: Jaren Jackson Jr. at Toronto Raptors – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a monster with all of the Grizzlies injuries recently. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel and the highest among power forwards on DraftKings. Jackson Jr. does look a little better on FanDuel due to his defensive ceiling. Over his last eight games, Jackson Jr. has averaged 24.3 points per game with an incredibly high 32% usage rate. He has added 10 steals and 15 blocks over that time and attempted 20+ field goals in half the games.
The increased usage rate without Morant, Bane, and Smart is what makes Jackson Jr. such a strong play. Considering the Raptors are also without their starting center, it will make him look even better. He is one of the most popular plays on the slate at his mid-range price tag. Prioritize Jackson Jr. on FanDuel with his 10 Pro Trends and ability to capture defensive stats.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. San Antonio Spurs – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Joel Embiid has the highest projected ceiling in our NBA Models by a comfortable margin. The reigning MVP is averaging a career-high 35 points per game with a monstrous 38.1% usage rate. Similar to Giannis, Embiid’s $11,400 salary on DraftKings is coming at an insane 94% Bargain Rating. With more value expected to open up throughout the day, it will be very easy to fit him into any lineup build tonight. He is the most popular but best stud on the slate to choose from.
A big reason why Embiid is popping so much in our models is this matchup against the Spurs. Victor Wembanyama is an elite shot-blocker, but the Spurs still rank 27th in rebounding percentage and are allowing the 10th most points per game in the paint. The 76ers are nearly 15-point home favorites, but this is as good of a matchup as Embiid can get this season.
Top Value: Jalen Duren vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Jalen Duren will be tasked with defending the paint against Giannis tonight, but he, too, remains cheap across the industry. The Pistons are still without point guard Cade Cunningham, which will likely make this game a little less competitive. However, with Cunningham off the floor this season, Duren leads the team with a +4.98% usage rate. He has massive double-double upside in any matchup, which will likely be enough to pay off his salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Surprisingly, the Bucks haven’t been as stout defensively this season. They rank 22nd in defensive rating, while opponents are scoring 120.6 points per game against them, which is the sixth-highest in the league. Duren looks exceptional on DraftKings at $6,800, which is resulting in a 90% Bargain Rating. He is a strong value play in all formats on this slate tonight.
