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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray at New York Knicks – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Dejounte Murray‘s combination of upside and safety has him coming in as the top point guard option on Monday. Since returning from the COVID protocols, Murray has had three games where he has had over 53 DraftKings points. During that time, he has averaged 22.7 points, 11.0 assists, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.7 steals per game. He has also averaged 22 field goal attempts per game with a 31.9% usage rate.
Murray is always a triple-double threat as he has had three of them in the past month. In his last triple-double, he went for a career-high 72.0 DraftKings points. This matchup against the Knicks features the lowest total on the slate at 212.5 points. The Spurs are only implied for 103.25 points. While those low numbers certainly aren’t good, the Spurs still rank fourth in the league in Pace this season. Murray will push the tempo and put a lot of pressure on the Knicks’ below-average guards. He also has the minutes to provide the ceiling.
Top Value: Rajon Rondo at Sacramento Kings – $3,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Remember Rajon Rondo?! He has found a new home with the Cavaliers. Rondo has provided a nice spark off the bench as he is back to his old ways of filling up the stat sheet. In his two games with the Cavaliers, Rondo is averaging 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. He has also averaged 25.3 DraftKings points while playing 23.0 minutes, and he’s posted a 28.8% usage rate.
The matchup for Rondo against the Kings should fit right in his wheelhouse. They rank 26th in Defensive Rating and are in the top 10 in Pace this season. They allow opponents to score 113.7 points per game, ranking third-worst in the league. The Kings also allow a league-high 53.0 points per game in the paint. Rondo should cause havoc against the Kings’ second unit, and he may even close the game again.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Detroit Pistons – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
It is always shocking to see the price tag on FanDuel for Donovan Mitchell. It rarely ever moves, despite him having a positive Plus/Minus in 15 of his last 18 games. He is coming off of a 36-point performance where he added a season-high nine assists against the Pacers. Mitchell has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel tonight. No surprise, but he is projected to be one of the highest-owned players.
However, Mitchell may lose some steam later in the day when other more popular games get brought up. Despite having a high game total of 224.5 points, that ranks just fourth on the slate. The Pistons rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season while also ranking in the top 10 in Pace. This is a great matchup to target Mitchell, who has the third-highest usage rate in the league at 33.0%. He may pour in another 36 points tonight.
Top Value: Joshua Primo at New York Knicks – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Despite their low team total, the Spurs are getting a lot of love in this article. Tonight will be the Spurs’ last leg of their seven-game road trip. Our model has Joshua Primo as the best value guard on both sites tonight. The rookie is coming off of a season-high 39 minutes where he had 12 points despite shooting 4-for-16 from the field. That’s an excellent combination of minutes and scoring upside for someone with such a minimal price tag.
Primo is projected for 30 minutes again on Monday, but make sure he’s in the starting lineup once again before locking him in. He should be given the Spurs’ absences, but you never know what head coach Gregg Popovich has up his sleeves. If he is not in the starting lineup, he makes for a very boom or bust value option. A whopping 55.3% of Primo’s shots have come from behind the arc, and the Knicks have allowed the seventh most 3-point attempts this season. If starting, Primo is an outstanding value play.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,600 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
It is rare to see the Brooklyn Nets at full strength with Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. They only played eight games together last season and one this season. Using our On/Off tool, Durant led the trio with a 29.6% usage rate in their eight games together last year. In their one game played together this season, Durant led the way with a 33.4% usage rate as he had 39 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists.
Durant is also the most expensive of the trio, but just barely on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I would much rather get exposure to Harden and Irving. Durant still leads the league in scoring with 29.9 points per game. He is the safest option among the trio. However, this is a matchup where all three can flourish. The Trail Blazers rank 29th in Defensive Rating and allow a league-high 47.9% from the field and 37.9% from 3-point range.
Top Value: Keita Bates-Diop at New York Knicks – $3,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The second best value play on DraftKings and third on FanDuel per our model is Spurs forward Keita Bates-Diop. He is coming off of a season-high 37 minutes with 10 points and six rebounds. Bates-Diop has been very mediocre lately, but he has shown upside. He has had both a 30-point and 40-point DraftKings performance over the past three weeks. Bates-Diop is projected for 32 minutes tonight.
I am really banking on the Spurs having a good game tonight. It certainly helps that Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Tre Jones are out. I wish the matchup were better, but that also may provide less ownership. Let’s hope the Spurs can keep this game competitive on the road as 6-point underdogs, and all of the Spurs value pieces and Murray get enough value to be in the optimal lineup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Charlotte Hornets – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
The price tag may look high compared to the rest of the slate, but this is an elite spot to target Giannis Antetokounmpo. I wrote Giannis up on Friday night against the Hornets, so it should come as no surprise that he is here once again in the same matchup. The Bucks lost 114-106 in their previous meeting despite Giannis having 43 points and 12 rebounds. He finished with 70.0 DraftKings points.
This matchup is way too good to ignore Giannis. The Hornets lead the league in Pace and allow a league-worst 116.3 points per game. The 220 points scored in their last game was disappointing, but there is no reason to think that will happen again. This matchup features the highest total on the slate at 235 points. Giannis leads the league in points scored and possessions in transition, while the Hornets allow a league-high 24.1 points in transition. He is starting at point guard again with Jrue Holiday out. Don’t overthink this one.
Top Value: Alex Len vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Alen Len is power forward eligible on FanDuel, which makes him a fantastic value play coming off back-to-back double-doubles. During those two games, Len is averaging 17.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per game. Playing against this massive Cavaliers’ frontcourt will provide a difficult matchup but also a heavy dose of minutes. Len has played an average of 25.5 minutes with 34.5 DraftKings points per game.
Unfortunately, Len is only center eligible on DraftKings, and we can’t roster three centers tonight. He does provide an 88% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, so this definitely seems like a day to roster a center in your utility position. We will need to monitor the status of Kings center Richaun Holmes, as he may return from the COVID protocols. Holmes hasn’t played since December 31, but his return would lessen Len’s outlook.
Note: Alex Len is only C eligible on DraftKings
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Houston Rockets – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
Finally, a slate where Joel Embiid doesn’t play on the same day as Nikola Jokic! Embiid is the clear-cut top option among centers tonight. He has been on a tear lately, scoring over 30 points in six-straight games and eight out of his last nine. Over those nine games, Embiid is averaging 32.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, and a 38.8% usage rate. He has recorded a double-double in six of those nine games while also having one game with a triple-double. Embiid has single handily led the 76ers to six-straight victories.
This matchup for Embiid is a gold mine. The Rockets rank dead last in Defensive Rating and second in Pace. They allow the third-most points in the paint with 49.6 per game. The 76ers are favored by over double digits tonight, but that is expected. Embiid makes for one of the best options on the slate. He should feast against this poor Rockets team.
Top Value: Hassan Whiteside at Detroit Pistons – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
The player with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate tonight is once again Hassan Whiteside. Although his last two games have been underwhelming, it is hard to get away from Whiteside. He’s averaged 7.5 points and 7.5 rebounds during that time while playing 27.5 minutes per game. He has yet to have over 21 DraftKings points since moving into the starting lineup. That said, I believe the ceiling game is still there.
Whiteside has seen a significant price jump on DraftKings. He still is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate, but it will be interesting to see if people shy away from him due to his recent play. Playing against the second-to-last team in the standings and being an 11-point road favorite may also help deter some ownership. The Pistons allow the seventh-most points in the paint and the fifth-most rebounds to opponents this season. Whiteside is projected for 28 minutes and should dominate this Pistons frontcourt.
Photo Credit: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid
