The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at Milwaukee Bucks – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
With Luka Doncic‘s status in doubt, Tyrese Haliburton is currently the stud point guard to pay up for tonight. Haliburton has recorded back-to-back games with 20+ points and 20+ assists. He became the fourth player in NBA history to record 20 assists in consecutive games. Over his last four games, Haliburton is averaging 26.3 points, 17.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 64.5 DraftKings points per game. He leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
The Pacers are 8.5-point road underdogs against the Bucks, but this is by far the best game environment on this six-game slate. The game total has risen to a slate-high 260.5 points, which isn’t surprising since the Pacers and Bucks rank first and second in points scored this season. This is a great spot for Haliburton to post another ceiling game, even at a rising salary.
Top Value: Andrew Nembhard at Milwaukee Bucks – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Sticking with the Pacers backcourt, Andrew Nembhard is one of the best values on the slate. Bruce Brown will likely miss his fifth-straight game with a knee injury, which will keep Nembhard in the Pacers’ starting lineup. In his last four games that Brown has missed, Nembhard is playing nearly 32 minutes a night and averaging 12.5 points and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 56.4% from the field and 44.4% from behind the arc. He is projected to play over 30 minutes again tonight.
Priced at $5,300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Nembhard will be difficult to fade with the high total and cheap price tag. Prioritize him on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest projected ownership and a 76% Bargain Rating. Playing Nembhard and Haliburton together is viable given the ridiculous amount of dimes that Haliburton is dishing out recently.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Malcolm Brogdon at Phoenix Suns – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
With so many injuries for the Trail Blazers, Malcolm Brogdon is one of the few players left standing. The 31-year-old point guard is likely not in the Trail Blazers’ future plans, but he is boosting his trade value with his recent play. In his last four games, Brogdon is averaging 23 points, 7.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game while shooting 53.1% from the field and 55.6% from behind the arc. The Trail Blazers are a double-digit underdog in Phoenix, but Brogdon’s outlook is promising.
The Trail Blazers have already ruled out key players Deandre Ayton and Anfernee Simons, while Shaedon Sharpe is questionable. Projected to play 35 minutes, Brogdon will be one of the more popular guards on both sites. His point guard and shooting guard eligibility makes it easy to fit Brogdon into all lineup builds. He has a great mix of value and ceiling.
Top Value: Bradley Beal vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
By far, the most popular option on the slate is Suns shooting guard Bradley Beal. He is projected for 45% ownership on DraftKings and a massive 60% on FanDuel. Since returning from his most recent injury, Beal scored a season-high 25 points in his last game, shooting 10-for-13 from the field in 35 minutes. Projected to play 33 minutes and have a respectable 24.25% usage rate, Beal has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on both sites. Beal is the best value on the slate.
The matchup against the Trail Blazers defense sets Beal up for even more success tonight. The Trail Blazers rank 21st in defensive rating, while opponents are shooting 49.1% from the field. Beal will likely continue taking a back seat to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, but he is a cheap way to get exposure to the Suns offense that is implied for 120.5 points.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Dallas Mavericks – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Lauri Markkanen like most opposing big men, struggled against the Miami Heat frontcourt last game. He was in foul trouble and finished with only 12 points and five rebounds over his 26 minutes of action. Before that difficult matchup, Markkanen was dominating while averaging a double-double with 26.2 points and 10.2 rebounds per game in his last five appearances. He recorded over 40 DraftKings points and had a positive Plus/Minus in each game while averaging 48.7 points per game.
Tonight’s matchup against the Mavericks is a great spot for Markkanen to bounce back. With such a small backcourt, the Mavericks get pummeled on the glass. They rank 28th in rebounding percentage at 47.5% and are allowing 53.6 points per game in the paint, which is tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league.
Markkenen will get back to domination tonight.
Top Value: Khris Middleton vs. Indiana Pacers – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Staying in the mid-range, Khris Middleton has recorded back-to-back points and assists double-doubles. He has also scored 20+ points in three of his last four games while playing 32+ minutes in each contest. Middleton likely won’t play big minutes, but he doesn’t need to in this matchup against the Pacers. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Bucks offense that is projected for a slate-high 134.75 points. That total is nearly 10 points more than the next closest team — the Pacers.
The Pacers play at the second-fastest pace in the league at 103.5 and have allowed the second-most points at 124.8 per game. There is so much opportunity for fantasy production in this up-tempo game. In his three games against the Pacers, Middleton is averaging 17.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists while shooting 54.1% from the field and 50% from deep.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Indiana Pacers – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
The Bucks have won nine of their last 10 games in large part to the dominance of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Over his last 10 games, Giannis is averaging 31.8 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game with a 32.3% usage rate. In his last game against the Pacers, Giannis scored a career-high 64 points, and there was panic after the game for the game ball. He shot 20-for-28 from the field and 24-for-32 from the free-throw line. If you’re into narratives, this is a perfect spot for you.
This is quite possibly the best matchup that Giannis can face all season. The Pacers are allowing a league-high 62.4 points per game in the paint, and Giannis is fourth in the league in transition points per game. Not only did Giannis score 64 points in their last matchup, but he had 54 points against them earlier. He is averaging 51.7 points per game in their three meetings.
Top Value: Jabari Walker at Phoenix Suns – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Both Jerami Grant and Jabari Walker are going to be strong value plays for the Trail Blazers tonight. Walker gets the slight nod due to his cheaper salary across the industry. At $5,000 on DraftKings, Walker has an 87% Bargain Rating and is projected to have the third-highest ownership on the slate. He is coming off a season-high 25 points and nine rebounds against the Spurs on Friday night. Walker finished with 41.75 DraftKings points, blowing his projection out of the water.
With three consecutive games of a positive Plus/Minus, Walker is in a great spot to keep trending upward with all of the Trail Blazers’ injuries. Despite still coming off the bench, Walker is projected to play around 28 minutes. Walker played 30 minutes in his last two games, so there is upside for more than 28. His cheap price tag negates the projected blowout.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Charlotte Hornets – $11,300 DraftKings, $12,100 FanDuel
The ownership is spread out quite evenly at the top of the pricing tier between Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jokic has the second-highest projected ceiling behind Doncic, who is questionable to play tonight. Always a threat for a triple-double, Jokic has a great matchup against the Hornets, who will likely be without starting center Mark Williams. Jokic will have no problem feasting on the Hornets’ frontcourt that is allowing 53.3 points per game in the paint.
Not only do the Hornets struggle defending opposing big men, but they also are tied for the fifth-lowest rebounding percentage in the league. These two teams played nine days ago, and it was the first time that Jokic has fouled out all year. He still nearly had a triple-double with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists, but don’t expect that to happen again.
Top Value: Jalen Duren at Houston Rockets – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Deciding between Alperen Sengun and Jalen Duren is another tough spot when they face each other. Sengun has been remarkable lately, but the value Duren provides is impossible to ignore. Both are fantastic plays, but Duren gets the nod. On DraftKings, Duren is $1,100 cheaper than FanDuel and has a 93% Bargain Rating. In his two games since returning from injury, Duren is averaging 16.5 points and 15.5 rebounds per game, while shooting 64.7% from the field in 37 minutes.
The Pistons needed Duren back to finally break their 28-game losing streak. They are still nearly double-digit underdogs on the road against the Rockets tonight but have shown to be competitive in difficult matchups. Cade Cunningham has been a stud, but Duren may be the X-factor. He is shooting 62.6% from the field and is pulling down 11.7 rebounds per game. Both of which rank in the top five in the league.
Prioritize Duren on DraftKings with the Pistons looking to stack another win.
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