The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Monday’s small four-game slate still contains plenty of fantasy potential, and the game with the best scoring environment and the highest over/under by a 10-point margin is the Hornets hosting the Pistons. Plenty of points should be scored on both sides, but the Hornets have the highest Implied Team Total on the slate.
As a result of his high usage and the great matchup, LaMelo has the highest ceiling projection of any player at any position on the entire slate. He isn’t the most expensive option, but his ceiling makes him a great centerpiece to build around.
Ball has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his past ten games with an average Plus/Minus of +5.37. He has over 50 DraftKings points in seven of his past nine contests, dating back to the last time he faced the Pistons. In that game, he had 23 points, eight assists, eight rebounds, and five steals for 56.6 FanDuel points and 55.5 DraftKings points.
Over his past nine games, Ball has averaged 54.4 DraftKings points and 50.0 FanDuel points on 24.8 points, 9.6 assists, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in 38.4 minutes per game. He’s been playing like a true fantasy stud and should be prioritized as a pay-up option on this small slate.
There’s a solid case to be made that Ball is underpriced, and he brings the highest projected Plus/Minus of any point guard on DraftKings and the highest projected Plus/Minus of any player at any position on FanDuel.
Top Value: Killian Hayes at Charlotte Hornets – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
If you’re looking for a cheaper point guard option, Hayes brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the position on the other side of the same matchup. He should be in for some extra work with Jaden Ivey (personal) ruled out.
Hayes struggled with his shot Saturday against the Raptors, making just 1-of-6 field goal attempts and managing just three points. He salvaged his fantasy day to some extent with six assists, a steal, and a block to still finish with 16.25 DraftKings points. Before that downer, he had been showing more scoring potential with back-to-back games of 12 and 10 points, helping him to reach 30.5 and 22.25 DraftKings points.
While he doesn’t bring nearly the ceiling of Ball or the more expensive point guards, he should be able to outproduce salary-based expectations now that he’s back in the starting lineup for Detroit.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Derrick White at New York Knicks – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
White has the second-highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings, even though his salary is under $6K. He also has the fifth-highest ceiling projection of shooting guards on FanDuel, although his salary isn’t quite so affordable.
White has so much upside on Monday since Jaylen Brown (personal) is away from the team and has been ruled out. That opens up plenty of usage, making multiple Celtics attractive options and giving White an extremely high ceiling.
Brown was able to start just one of the Celtics’ seven games before the All-Star break due to multiple injuries, including a facial fracture. White stepped into the starting lineup for each of those seven games and averaged 22.1 points, 7.0 assists, and 4.3 rebounds for 43.0 DraftKings points in 36.7 minutes per game.
This situation won’t be exactly the same since Marcus Smart was also sidelined for most of those games. White will not have all the playmaking responsibility with Smart in the lineup, but he still brings an excellent ceiling if he moves into the starting five as expected.
With Brown off the floor this season, White gets an increase in usage of 3.6 percentage points and produces 1.03 DraftKings points and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute.
Top Value: Josh Richardson vs. Orlando Magic – $5,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
JRich has landed in a good spot after being traded from the Spurs to the Pelicans at the trade deadline. As he and his new team host the Magic, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings, behind only White. On FanDuel, Richardson is eligible at shooting guard and small forward and offers the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at each position.
Richardson has played four games with the Pelicans and moved into the starting lineup for their two most recent contests. In his four games with the team, he has averaged 11.3 points, 3.5 steals, 3.0 assists, and 2.5 rebounds.
He has over 25 DraftKings points and 26 FanDuel points in three of his four games with the team. His multi-faceted production makes him relatively low-risk in his current role, and he should remain in an excellent spot to outproduce salary-based expectations on Monday’s slate.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at New York Knicks – $10,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Not that you need even more reason to build around Tatum, who is a great play almost every night, but he will have to carry more of the offensive workload without his running mate. In the 10 games Tatum has played without Brown this season, he has averaged 54.9 DraftKings points and 52.0 FanDuel points with a usage rate of 35.9%.
Tatum has the third-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the highest at both small forward and power forward by a wide margin.
Despite hitting the dramatic game-winning shot on Saturday against the 76ers, Tatum didn’t have a great statistical game. He only shot 7-of-17 from the field for 18 points but added 13 rebounds and six assists for 45.75 DraftKings points.
Before that down game, Tatum had over 30 points and 58 DraftKings points in three of his previous four contests. He also had a massive game against the Knicks at the end of January, racking up 63.5 DraftKings points on 35 points and 14 rebounds.
Tatum’s scoring prop sits at 31.5 on Monkey Knife Fight. You can get a $100 sign-up bonus on Monkey Knife Fight by signing up through our promo link.
Top Value: Bojan Bogdanovic at Charlotte Hornets – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Bogdanovic is questionable for Monday’s game with bilateral Achilles soreness, but he should be a nice value if available. Stay tuned to our News page for updates leading up to game time. On FanDuel, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at small forward and the fifth-highest at power forward. On DraftKings, he has the third-highest at small forward and the sixth-highest at power forward.
Bogdanovic has been unable to find his shooting rhythm in two games since the All-Star break, going a combined 8-for-24 (33.3%) after shooting 53.5% over his eight games going into the break. He responded with averages of 25.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists over those contests.
A matchup with Charlotte should be an excellent bounce-back spot for Bogdanovic if he can play. If his Achilles soreness is the reason for his struggles and he needs the night off, Isaiah Livers and Hamidou Diallo would become good value plays as they step into more prominent roles. Either way, there should be some good value from the Pistons’ small forward spot against the Hornets.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle vs. Boston Celtics – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Randle has the second-highest ceiling projection of all power forwards, trailing only Tatum on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He showed his ceiling last Friday by torching the Wizards for 46 points on his way to 58.5 DraftKings points and 56.4 FanDuel points. Randle kept rolling on Saturday, making five more 3-pointers in a 22-point rout of the Pelicans. He only had to play 32 minutes on that second game of the back-to-back but still managed 41.9 FanDuel points and 45.75 DraftKings points.
Randle has at least 42 DraftKings points in each of his past 14 straight games while averaging 27.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. His heavy workload makes him reliable, and his scoring potential gives him a high ceiling. He did face the Celtics once during that run and totaled 52.75 DraftKings points on 37 points and nine rebounds.
Getting him for under $10K on this four-game slate makes him a piece you can pair with another superstar to build around.
Top Value: James Wiseman at Charlotte Hornets – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Suddenly, the Pistons’ frontcourt is an interesting and crowded place. For this matchup, though, Jalen Duren (ankle) has been ruled out, and Isaiah Stewart (hip) is questionable. If Stewart is sidelined, Wiseman and Marvin Bagley III should see plenty of work.
On FanDuel, Bagley has the highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward, while Wiseman has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at center. On DraftKings, it’s Wiseman who is eligible at both power forward and center, while Bagley is only useable at center. Wiseman is also much cheaper on DraftKings, bringing the highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate across all positions.
The 21-year-old Wiseman was the No. 2 overall pick in the draft in 2020, but the Warriors sent him to Detroit as part of their trade for Gary Payton II. He has put up solid fantasy numbers in his three games for the Pistons, averaging 9.7 points and 8.3 rebounds in 22.6 minutes per game. While he hasn’t shown the same ultra-high ceiling that Bagley flashed on Saturday, Wiseman is extremely affordable and should get another start with Duren out. If Stewart is also out, he will be lined up for all the minutes he can handle.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Miami Heat – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Embiid is the most expensive player on the slate this Monday and has the second-highest ceiling projection behind only LaMelo. Embiid has been smashing everyone lately and has exceeded even his lofty salary-based expectations in five of his past six games, including both of his contests since returning from the All-Star game.
His first game after the break was a dominant performance last Thursday against the Grizzlies in which he posted 27 points, 19 rebounds, six blocks, and six assists for a massive 77.8 FanDuel points and 74.25 DraftKings points. On Saturday, he followed that up with 41 points and 12 rebounds for 68.9 FanDuel points and 69.5 DraftKings points against the Celtics (although his most memorable shot didn’t count).
Embiid and the Sixers will be facing the Heat for the first time this season after Miami knocked them out of the playoffs last year. He should be fired up and ready to post another big number as he welcomes Jimmy Butler back to Philly once again.
Top Value: Mark Williams vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
While the Pistons’ frontcourt does have some intriguing fantasy upside with Bagley and Wiseman, neither of those players is known for playing much defense. That sets up an excellent matchup for Williams. He brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate on FanDuel, while he ranks second at the center position on DraftKings.
Williams has had a strong rookie season after being the No. 15 pick in last year’s draft and stepped into the starting role after the Hornets traded Mason Plumlee to the Clippers. In his past six games, Williams has averaged 11.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 1.8 blocked shots for 30 DraftKings points per contest.
Williams was especially impressive on Saturday, gobbling up 20 rebounds to go with his 18 points to help the Hornets beat the Heat. He finished that game with 48 DraftKings points and brings similar upside in a great matchup with the Pistons. While the Pistons’ options are good bargains if you have to go cheap, Williams brings a higher ceiling and more proven track record on the other side of this game that you’ll want to be sure you have plenty of exposure to.
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