The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Maxey at Portland Trail Blazers – $8,600 DraftKings
Despite being $500 cheaper than James Harden, Tyrese Maxey is the top point guard to target on this seven-game slate. Maxey has displayed a high ceiling in all his last three games, with a positive Plus/Minus in each contest. During that time, Maxey is averaging 32.3 points, 8.7 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and exactly 60 DraftKings points per game with two double-doubles, eight steals, two blocks, and a 31.7% usage rate.
Both Harden and Maxey are drawing elite matchups for opposing point guards. However, Maxey gets a slight edge with Joel Embiid being questionable to play tonight, which would boost his usage rate and production even more if he were to sit. The 76ers are 5.5-point road favorites against the Trail Blazers, who rank 27th in defensive rating. This is a great spot for Maxey that could get even better without Embiid.
Top Value: Vasilije Micic vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,600 DraftKings
The top four players on this slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus are all on the Charlotte Hornets including point guard Vasilije Micic. LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Cody Martin are all doubtful, while Tre Mann continues to be out. Micic is projected to start and play around 32 minutes. In his nine starts this season, Micic is averaging 30.6 minutes, 13 points, 6.2 assists, and 27.5 DraftKings points per game.
Not only will Micic play heavy minutes, but the matchup sets up well for a strong performance. The Bulls rank 25th in defensive rating and third in pace at 104.45. Their up-tempo style of play has allowed their opponents to average the second-most points and assists per game this season. With a 24.8% projected usage rate and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, Micic is a strong play in all formats.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Sacramento Kings – $8,900 DraftKings
Luka Doncic attempted to play on Christmas Day but suffered a setback to his calf injury and will now be re-evaluated in one month. That will set the stage for Kyrie Irving to run the show for the Mavericks in the foreseeable future. With Doncic off the floor this season, Irving has averaged a team-high +3.8% usage rate increase (per our Trends tool). He has 46 points in his last game without Doncic on the floor.
Most of Irving’s production without Doncic comes from scoring the ball, but he can do so in a variety of ways. In two of his last three games, the electric point guard scored 46 and 39 points. He has the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position and is still priced under $9,000 tonight. The Mavericks are 3.5-point underdogs, but the Kings have lost six straight games. Without Doncic, Irving is a priority.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,800 DraftKings
Jordan Clarkson is a prototypical boom-or-bust fantasy producer who looks great in tournaments but is difficult to trust in cash games. Over his last three games, Clarkson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each contest and averaged 20 points, 5.7 assists, and four rebounds per game. A big reason for his production boost has been the absence of Keyonte George who is once again questionable to play.
Keep an eye on the status of George and forward John Collins tonight. If both were to miss, that will be a huge boost for Clarkson. With both off the floor this season, Clarkson has posted a +8.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Clarkson can still have a good game playing alongside George, but he only scored three points in their last game together. However, playing 30 minutes per night, Clarkson is still a good value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Norman Powell at New Orleans Pelicans – $7,300 DraftKings
Kawhi Leonard is eyeing a return to action soon but remains out for the Clippers. In his absence, Norman Powell is having the best year of his career. Powell is averaging a team and career-high 24.2 points per game while shooting 49.5% from the field and 46.6% from behind the arc. His 3.8 3-pointers made per game are nearly double his production from last year. Powell also has a career-high 27.1% usage rate.
Mainly due to their injuries, but the Pelicans have been a horrible defensive team this season. They rank 29th in defensive rating at 118.0 and continue to be without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Jose Alvarado. Since the start of December, Powell has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last nine games. During that time, he averaged 25.8 points per game and shot over 50% from the field.
Top Value: Klay Thompson at Sacramento Kings – $5,600 DraftKings
Going back to the Mavericks backcourt, Klay Thompson will also see an uptick in his production without Doncic on the floor. Thompson has averaged 33 minutes per game in his last two games without Doncic and is projected to play 32 minutes, with the highest projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position. He is a streaky fantasy producer, but priced at $5,600, he does not have to do much to exceed his salary.
This matchup against the Kings sets up perfectly for Thompson to get hot from the perimeter. The Kings are allowing opponents to make 14.6 3-pointers per game and shoot 37.9% from behind the arc, which both rank third-highest in the league. Thompson is still attempting 65% of his field goals from deep and is averaging three made 3-pointers per game for the ninth straight year. He is a fantastic value option.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges vs. Chicago Bulls – $7,300 DraftKings
Over the last three games, Miles Bridges has been on a heater. He is only shooting 44% from the field during that stretch, but he is still averaging a double-double with 21.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and five assists per game with four blocks, three steals, and a 26.9% usage rate. His price tag has jumped to $7,300, but Bridges is still the best power forward to target with the highest projected ceiling tonight.
Bridges ranks third behind an injured Joel Embiid and Kyrie Irving in highest projected usage rate at 32.6% due to all the Hornets’ injuries. With LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Cody Martin, and Tre Mann off the floor, Bridges has a team-high +5.84% usage rate. The Bulls have been a terrible defense, so Bridges should be able to feast with his increased usage rate. He has the highest upside among the Hornets value.
Top Value: Tidjane Salaun vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,800 DraftKings
Leading the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus at +10.6 is Hornets’ forward Tidjane Salaun. He is projected to play 30 minutes, which will give him more than enough time to pay off his $3,800 price tag. To no surprise, Salaun is drawing a slate-high projected ownership. He is a staple in cash games and a great value in tournaments. The rookie has the versatility to record fantasy points in a variety of ways. He stuffed the stat sheet last game with nine points, five rebounds, one assist, one steal, and one block.
Salaun did not start the last game but still managed to play 31 minutes. His versatility is difficult to leave off the floor, and this is a fantastic matchup for Salaun to display his skill set. This simply comes down to Salaun projected to play 30 minutes at $3,800. That is simply way too cheap for his opportunity tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Utah Jazz – $12,000 DraftKings
With so much value on this slate, paying up for Nikola Jokic will not be that difficult. He is the only player with a price tag north of $10,000 and has a projected ceiling that cannot be touched on this seven-game slate. Jokic is easily the best pay-up option available. Jokic is averaging a near triple-double with a career-high 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game while shooting 57.1% from the field and 50% from downtown. He has been the most dominant player in the league and will be on this slate tonight.
The Jazz currently rank dead last in defensive rating while opponents are shooting 48.1% from the field. The Nuggets have the highest implied total on the slate at 123.5 points, with the game total sitting at 240.5 points. Play Jokic to get the most bang for your buck in this high-scoring game environment.
Top Value: Mark Williams vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,300 DraftKings
Last, but not least is another Hornets’ value player that is worth getting exposure to. That would be starting center Mark Williams who has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Despite being only projected to play 24 minutes, Williams has incredible upside in this matchup against the Bulls. The Bulls rank 22nd in rebounding percentage and last in points allowed in the paint, with 56.1 per game.
Since his playing time has ramped up, Williams is starting to display his ceiling. He recorded a double-double last game and has a great chance to record another one tonight. In his last game against the Bulls, Williams had 15 points and nine rebounds despite playing 17 minutes. He is an elite value in all builds. The Bulls frontcourt has not been able to contain opposing big men, and tonight will be no different.
