The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $8,800 DraftKings
Despite dealing with a minor Achilles injury, Trae Young has led the Hawks to three consecutive wins. The three-time All-Star is averaging a league and career-high 12.1 assists per game and has accumulated a double-double in 14 of his 20 games played this season. Young has the highest projected ceiling at the point guard position and the third-highest on the slate in a cupcake home matchup against the Pelicans.
The Hawks are nearly double-digit favorites in this spot and implied for 119 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. The Pelicans rank 27th in both defensive rating and shooting percentage allowed at 48.4% from the field and 37.8% from behind the arc. Young is uncharacteristically shooting under 40% from the field for the first time in his career. This is a great bounce-back spot for a ceiling performance.
Top Value: Mike Conley vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $4,800 DraftKings
Leading the slate in projected Plus/Minus is Timberwolves’ point guard Mike Conley. The veteran guard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last two games since returning from injury. In back-to-back games, Conley has averaged 14.5 points per game. He has also captured at least two steals in each of his last six games. His presence is necessary on the Timberwolves who have lost four of their last five.
The Timberwolves are 7.5-point home favorites against the Lakers, who have also been reeling. Despite having a 12-8 record, the Lakers rank 26th in defensive rating. They are allowing 28.3 assists per game, which makes this a positive matchup for opposing guards. Priced under $5,000, Conley is one of the best values available. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Timberwolves, who have a 114.5 implied total.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $9,300 DraftKings
Anthony Edwards is doing whatever he can to get this Timberwolves team out of their recent funk. He has recorded over 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. During those ceiling performances, he is averaging 28.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. Edwards is the only shooting guard to pay up for on this four-game slate, but his projected ownership is 10%, with many other studs available.
Averaging a career-high 27.7 points per game, Edwards has done most of his damage from behind the arc this season. He leads the league with 4.7 made 3-pointers per game and is shooting a career-best 42.8% from distance. The Lakers defense has been susceptible to perimeter shooting, allowing opponents to shoot 36.4% from deep. In a positive matchup, Edwards is a strong contrarian pay-up option tonight.
Top Value: Keon Johnson at Chicago Bulls – $3,500 DraftKings
Playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, the Nets are dealing with a plethora of injuries. Not only is their leading scorer, Cam Thomas out, but Cameron Johnson, Ben Simmons, and Ziaire Williams all were injured last night, with their status being questionable for tonight’s game. Keep an eye on the Nets starting lineup to see who is in and out tonight. Even with all of their injuries, the Nets are still implied to score 112.75 points in a fantastic matchup against the Bulls who rank 29th in defensive rating at 118.4.
Keon Johnson may likely come off the bench again, but he is still averaging 30 minutes and 13.5 points per game in his last two games. At $3,500, Johnson is the best pure punt on this four-game slate. The four-year pro has had a 27.4% usage rate in his last two games, and his projected ownership will continue to rise if more Nets players are unable to play. He is the perfect fit for a stars and scrubs lineup build.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Miami Heat – $10,300 DraftKings
Fifth in the league in scoring and 3-pointers made is Celtics’ star Jayson Tatum. He leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game. Tatum had a 35.6% usage rate yesterday in the Celtics’ four-point loss to the Cavaliers. He finished with 33 points on 27 field goal attempts. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White were unable to play, so keep an eye on their status for tonight’s game if they are in or out.
With Brown and White off the floor this season, Tatum has a +4.94% usage rate and +3.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). Despite Brown and White potentially being out, the Celtics are still double-digit home favorites against the Heat. This matchup does have the lowest total at 220.5 points, but Tatum has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate. He is an incredible pay-up option in all formats and will look even better if Brown and/or White are still unable to play tonight.
Top Value: Trey Murphy at Atlanta Hawks – $6,200 DraftKings
Another team dealing with a ton of injuries that will create opportunities for others is the New Orleans Pelicans. Starters Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Herbert Jones are all out, which will provide a significant boost to the production and usage rate for Pelicans’ sharpshooter Trey Murphy. In his eight games played this season, Murphy is averaging a career-high 17.8 points and 5.4 rebounds per game.
The Pelicans may be near double-digit underdogs, but this is still a matchup they can take advantage of. The Hawks are second in the league in pace at 104.43 and rank 21st in defensive rating. They are allowing a league-high 42.1 3-point attempts per game, which is right up Murphy’s alley. Murphy has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games and over 50% of his field goal attempts have come from distance.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,800 DraftKings
Still priced under $10,000, LeBron James is coming off a massive 27-point, 14-assist double-double against the Jazz last night. With his scoring being down, James has reverted to being an incredible passer. He leads the team with 9.4 assists per game, which is the second-highest total in his 22-year career. Since the beginning of November, James has six double-doubles and five triple-doubles, proving his ceiling.
Among the most expensive options on this four-game slate, James is the only player projected for less than 10% ownership. After leading the league in defensive rating last season, the Timberwolves rating has dropped to ninth this season. Still a strong defense, but one that James can take advantage of a little more easily. Similar to Edwards, James is a contrarian pay-up option that is a great option in tournaments.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson at Chicago Bulls – $6,600 DraftKings
Leading the slate in projected ownership is previously mentioned Cameron Johnson. He did suffer an ankle injury late in last night’s game but is going to do everything he can to suit up tonight. With Cam Thomas out, Johnson ranks second on the team with a +3.01% usage rate boost and a +2.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Make sure he is able to play, but if he is good to go, Johnson is a fantastic mid-range option.
Johnson is off to a great start to the season, averaging a career-high 18.1 points per game while shooting 49% from the field and 42.2% from behind the arc. Known for being a pure long-range shooter, Johnson has made a career-high 3.1 3-pointers per game. Johnson has displayed a ceiling, scoring well over 30 points in back-to-back games in late November. If he can play, this is a great spot for Johnson tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,800 DraftKings
Arguably the most dominant big man in the league right now is Lakers’ center Anthony Davis. He is averaging a career-high 28.6 points and 11.5 rebounds per game and ranks fifth in the league with two blocks per game. Davis is shooting 55.2% from the field and 37.2% from downtown. He is also averaging the most DraftKings points per game on the slate at 54.9 and has the highest projected ceiling tonight.
Shockingly, the Timberwolves have struggled against opposing big men, unlike in the past few years. Despite having Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves rank 18th in rebounding percentage and 24th in points allowed in the paint at 51.1 points per game. This is a sneaky good spot for Davis who is currently drawing only 15% ownership. I love the idea of getting overweight to Davis in tournaments on this slate.
Top Value: Clint Capela vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $5,400 DraftKings
Clint Capela is averaging less than double-digit rebounds per game for the first time since his 2016-’17 season. However, he has grabbed 13 and 14 rebounds in his last two games. Capela’s scoring is always boom or bust, but he has scored double-digit points in seven of his last 11 games. If Capela can capture a double-double in this matchup, that will be more than enough to pay off his $5,400 price tag tonight.
Due to all of their injuries, the Pelicans’ interior defense has been lacking. They have allowed the second-most points in the paint at 53.7 per game and rank 23rd in rebounding percentage. Capela is projected to be the second-most popular center while also having the second-highest projected Plus/Minus. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 11 games. This is a perfect spot for a ceiling performance.
