The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox vs. Denver Nuggets – $8,700 DraftKings
The point guard position is flooded with top-tier options for this six-game slate. Three of the top six options in projected ceiling are from this position. De’Aaron Fox is the best point guard from a combined ceiling and value perspective. He is averaging 45 DraftKings points per game this season and has posted 40+ in six-straight games. With his consistent output, Fox is a fantastic cash-game point guard tonight.
The Kings are 1.5-point home favorites against the Nuggets, looking for their fourth-straight victory. This game has a 237-point total, which is the second-highest on the slate. The Nuggets also rank in the top five in pace. This is a perfect matchup for Fox, who is averaging 5.3 transition possessions and 16.3 drives per game, which both rank inside the top seven of players in the league. He is the preferred pay-up guard.
Top Value: Kevin Porter Jr. vs. Utah Jazz – $4,400 DraftKings
Leading all point guards in projected Plus/Minus is backup guard Kevin Porter Jr. He has posted three consecutive games with a double-digit DraftKings Plus/Minus and remains fairly priced at $4,400. During that three-game stretch, Porter Jr. averaged 17.3 points, 4.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game while shooting 50% from the field and 45.5% from deep. He exceeded 30 DraftKings points in each game.
This is the first year in Porter Jr.’s five-year career where he is averaging less than double-digit points per game. The main reason for that is his playing time has been basically cut in half, and he is coming off the bench. However, Porter Jr. has been effective in his 20 minutes per game and is trending in the right direction. Getting a cupcake matchup against the Jazz also helps Porter Jr.’s outlook. The 5-19 Jazz are allowing 119.3 points per game, which is the third-highest in the league. Porter Jr. is a strong value play.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Brooklyn Nets – $9,000 DraftKings
The Cavaliers are the only team on this six-game slate that is a double-digit favorite in their matchup on the road against the Nets. They continue to lead the league with a 22-4 record, while Donovan Mitchell leads the team with 23.6 points per game. He is shooting a career-best 40.9% from behind the arc and has made at least four 3-pointers in five of his last six games, displaying his ability to provide a ceiling.
The Nets have been susceptible to the long ball this season. They are allowing opponents to shoot 37.4% from behind the arc, which is the fifth-highest total in the league. Mitchell went 4-for-6 in their previous meeting and sets up great for another strong performance tonight. The Nets also rank 27th in defensive rating, with opponents shooting a league-high 48.9% from the field. This is a fantastic spot for Mitchell.
Top Value: Duncan Robinson at Detroit Pistons – $4,100 DraftKings
Duncan Robinson is a boom-or-bust fantasy producer who relies on his perimeter shooting. He is a perfect tournament option given his upside. If his shot is falling, the Heat will give him more playing time, and if not, then he won’t come near the optimal lineup anyway. These past three games are a great example. Robinson averaged 21 points per game in back-to-back games, connecting on 9-for-14 from distance. He followed that up with a 0-for-2 performance from deep and less than 15 DraftKings points.
This matchup sets up well for the Heat’s sharpshooter. The Pistons are allowing opponents to shoot 37.7% from deep, which is tied for the second-highest total in the league. Robinson has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position and is a cheap way to get exposure to the Heat.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: RJ Barrett vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,100 DraftKings
RJ Barrett is coming off his second triple-double this season with 13 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and three blocks in his last game against the Heat. With Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley still out, the Raptors will run their entire offense through Barrett. With both Barnes and Quickley off the floor, Barrett is leading the Raptors with a +2.34% usage rate and a +3.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Barrett’s salary continues to rise, but it is warranted due to his current workload. For this six-game slate, he has the second-highest projected ceiling and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus. The Bulls are an incredible matchup for any opponent, with the second-highest pace and fifth-worst defensive rating. Among the pay-up options, Barrett is clearly the best option due to his 35% projected ownership tonight.
Top Value: Norman Powell vs. Utah Jazz – $6,500 DraftKings
Finally getting his opportunity in the starting lineup, Norman Powell is having the best season in his 10-year career. Powell is averaging a team and career-high 23.2 points per game while shooting 48.9% from the field and an outstanding 47.4% from behind the arc. The Clippers rank 24th in scoring this season, so they desperately need Powell’s scoring. Since returning from his injury, Powell has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games. His price tag also hasn’t caught up to what it was pre-injury.
Fully healthy and projected to play 32 minutes, Powell has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Barrett at the small forward position and is drawing nearly 30% ownership. Powell has averaged 33.8 DraftKings points per game in his last four games, which is more than enough to pay off his $6,500 salary. In an elite matchup against the Jazz with guard and forward eligibility, this is a great spot for him.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Charlotte Hornets – $8,300 DraftKings
76ers’ center Joel Embiid simply cannot stay healthy. He has only played six games this season with various injuries and will be out again tonight. That will pave the way for Paul George to see a significant boost to his usage rate and production. Without Embiid off the floor this year, George is averaging a team-high +2.71% usage rate and a +3.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus. That makes him a viable pay-up option.
In the last four games, George is finally starting to find his groove. During that stretch, he is averaging 19.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and one block per game while shooting 48.3% from the field. His playing time is back to normal, and the 76ers will need to lean on him and Tyrese Maxey without Embiid on the floor. Luckily, this is a superior matchup. In his game against the Hornets two weeks ago, George scored 29 points with eight assists while shooting 10-for-16 from the field and 6-for-9 from deep.
Top Value: Jonathan Mogbo vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,400 DraftKings
Arguably, the best value play on this six-game slate is Raptors’ power forward Jonathan Mogbo. He leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games. Mogbo started the last game, and there is a good chance he will draw another start tonight. He is projected to play 28 minutes while drawing the second-most ownership tonight. It is impossible to get away from his value.
Over the last four games, the rookie from San Francisco has averaged 8.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.3 rebounds per game with three total steals and blocks. His 22.8 DraftKings points per game during that stretch are plenty to pay off his $4,400 price tag. The Bulls are also a great matchup for Mogbo to have a ceiling performance. Expect his ownership to continue to rise throughout the day. He is an elite value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Sacramento Kings – $12,200 DraftKings
There is not a crazy amount of value on this slate, but getting exposure to the best player in the league is necessary for this six-game slate. Nikola Jokic is the only player priced above $10,000 tonight, and no one has close to the ceiling that he does. However, his projected ownership of 11% proves that gamers are not paying up for him due to the limited amount of value. I plan to get well overweight to this ownership.
Jokic is coming off a dud against the Clippers, but in his previous five games, the three-time MVP averaged 39.4 points, 14.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 78.9 DraftKings points per game. The Kings’ Domantas Sabonis is a strong defender preventing the second-fewest points scored in the paint this season, but no one can match up with Jokic. I would recommend getting plenty of Jokic exposure tonight.
Top Value: Jakob Poeltl vs. Chicago Bulls – $7,300 DraftKings
Back to the Raptors’ value, we go with the highest projected ownership player on the slate – Jakob Poeltl. With Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley off the floor this season, Poeltl is averaging a team-high +4.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He has recorded a double-double in four of his last six games with four games exceeding 40 DraftKings points in that time. His salary also remains reasonable at $7,300 tonight.
The Bulls are one of the best matchups for opposing big men. They are allowing a league-high 57.4 points per game in the paint this season and rank 22nd in rebounding percentage. Projected to play 33 minutes against this weak interior defense, Poeltl should feast in this matchup. There are plenty of Raptors’ players worth getting exposure to in this spot. Add Poeltl to the list of incredible options.
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