The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Phoenix Suns – $12,700 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Doncic has the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only Joel Embiid. He’s also the most expensive player on both sites, but if you have the salary available, there’s no one who matches his upside. He also has a decent matchup against the Suns, where the Mavs have the second-highest Pace Differential on the slate.
In his earlier matchup with the Suns this season, Luka had 35 points, nine rebounds, six assists, and 56.25 DraftKings points in a two-point loss. He should be relatively fresh for this matchup since he played under 30 minutes in the Mavs’ 21-point win over the Knicks on Saturday afternoon. Even in that limited time, he put up 30 points and 58 DraftKings points.
Over his past six contests, he has averaged an impressive 1.66 DraftKings points per minute and 63.1 DraftKings points per game on 33.2 points, 9.8 assists, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. His ceiling game during that run was an eye-popping 41-point triple-double against the Warriors that resulted in 88 DraftKings points.
He has that kind of ceiling in any matchup and tends to have his best game against top teams in the West, like the Warriors and Suns.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon at Toronto Raptors – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Even with Marcus Smart expected to return in Monday’s projections, Brogdon is in the top 10 at point guard in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With Smart sidelined on Sunday against the Nets, Brogdon played 32 minutes and produced 13 points, eight assists, eight rebounds, and 37.5 DraftKings points. While Smart’s absence definitely enhanced those numbers, Brogdon has already been playing well over the past few weeks.
Brogdon has scored 13 points or more in six of his past eight games while averaging 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 27.0 FanDuel points per game. He has been a versatile bench option for Boston and can fill up the box score with a focus on either points or assists, depending on the team’s needs.
In seven of his past eight games, the veteran has exceeded salary-based expectations and should be ready to return good value again as the C’s go north of the border to finish their back-to-back. He’ll become even more of a lock if Smart is out again.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Dallas Mavericks – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
On the other side of the Mavs-Suns showdown in Dallas, Booker has the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and checks in at No. 4 at the position on FanDuel, where more star point guards also come with shooting guard eligibility. Booker has been carrying most of the Suns’ offense while Chris Paul (heel) has been sidelined.
In the 13 games without CP3, Booker has averaged 30.7 points, 6.6 assists, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per contest and produced over 48 DraftKings points eight times. He had over 58 DraftKings points in three straight games before getting a bit of a break Sunday in a 38-point rout of the Spurs.
After that lighter workload, he should return to his usual heavy workload in this contest. He has a 32.6% usage rate in the 13 games without Paul, and this game is expected to be a close contest with only a three-point spread.
Top Value: Andrew Nembhard at Golden State Warriors – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Nembhard and his teammate T.J. McConnell are the top two players in Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and are both in the top three on FanDuel. Nembhard has been stepping up lately for the Pacers in general, and he should be set up to carry more workload again in this matchup since Indiana will be without Tyreese Haliburton for a second straight game.
Even before the Haliburton injury, Nembhard was trending in the right direction. Since returning from his own injury four games ago, he hit a clutch game-winner against the Lakers, posted his first career double-double, and has averaged 27.0 FanDuel points per game.
On Sunday without Haliburton, Nembhard had 16 points, eight assists, and six rebounds and posted a 17.3% usage rate in a season-high 37 minutes to finish with 37 DraftKings points and 35.2 FanDuel points. He is likely in line for plenty of minutes and multi-category production in this contest as well, so roll with the former Zag if you need a value guard.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Toronto Raptors – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Tatum has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on DraftKings by almost 10 points and is second on FanDuel, behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo. On Sunday, Tatum had another big game with 29 points, 11 rebounds, and over 50 DraftKings points. He has reached at least 50 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, including a ceiling game against the Heat in which he exploded for over 75 DraftKings points.
This will be the first time the Celtics meet the Raptors this season, but it should be another good spot for Tatum to continue to establish himself as an MVP candidate. Almost every time Boston is on the slate, he should be considered a nice ceiling option if you can make his salary work.
Top Value: AJ Griffin vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
With John Collins (ankle) and DeAndre Hunter (hip) sidelined, Griffin should remain very involved for the Hawks, even though Trae Young is expected to return and pick up his typical workload after missing Friday’s game with a shoulder injury and apparently some drama with coach Nate McMillan. Griffin stepped up in Trae’s absence, matching his career high with 24 points and totaling 36.1 FanDuel points and 35.25 DraftKings points in his second career start.
In this favorable spot against the Thunder, Griffin has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings, where he has been priced up a little bit.
Griffin has scored double-digit points in six of his past eight games, with over 21 DraftKings points in five of those contests. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his two starts, so if he stays in the lineup for this contest, he should be an elite value play.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Orlando Magic – $11,900 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
As usual, Antetokounmpo has the highest ceiling projection of all power forwards on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is projected for the third-highest usage on the slate behind Luka and Ja Morant and has posted more FanDuel points and DraftKings points per minute this season than any other player.
The Bucks gave Giannis and the rest of their stars Saturday off and still beat the Hornets after losing to the Lakers on Friday night. In that contest, Antetokounmpo finished with 55.9 FanDuel points on 40 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and a block in 35 minutes.
Giannis has reeled off six straight games with at least 30 points and added 9.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 0.7 blocked shots in his 33.5 minutes per game over that stretch. As long as Monday’s game in Orlando doesn’t turn into a laugher, he should be set up for another strong showing against the Magic.
Top Value:
Jalen Johnson vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Along with Griffin, Johnson is the other value play from the Hawks that should be set up for success while Collins and Hunter are sidelined. On FanDuel, Johnson is only eligible at small forward, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only his teammate Griffin. On DraftKings, he’s only available as a power forward, where he comes with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Johnson was the Hawks’ first-round pick last year and is still only 20 years old. He played sparingly as a rookie but has shown promise in more minutes lately.
Before getting his first career start on Friday, Johnson missed two games with ankle soreness. He looked great in 33 minutes against the Nuggets, though, producing 10 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, and 32 DraftKings points. If he gets a similar workload, he should be a steal at this salary, even though his scoring upside isn’t quite as high as Griffin’s.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Houston Rockets – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Embiid has the highest projected ceiling of all the players on the slate on FanDuel and checks in at No. 2 on DraftKings. That’s even with the return of James Harden being taken into the equation in this matchup against his former team. Houston has struggled to defend opposing centers all season, so it is another smash spot for Embiid.
In his three games since returning from an injury, Embiid has averaged 55.6 DraftKings points on 28.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. He is filling up every column on the stat sheet regularly and getting all the usage he can handle.
On Sunday, he had 35 points, 11 boards, eight assists, and 69.25 DraftKings points, so as long as he’s available for the second half of this back-to-back, he is a pay-up play you have to consider.
Top Value: Nick Richards vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Richards is worth consideration if you decide to build around some of the high-ceiling superstars at other positions and go cheap at center. He brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel.
The third-year big-man from Jamaica has been doing work for Charlotte on the boards lately, averaging 8.7 rebounds to go with 9.6 points in 19.9 minutes per game over his past seven contests. He had three straight double-doubles just before Thanksgiving and continues to be a solid source of bargain production while playing as the primary backup for Mason Plumlee.
Get $100 Sign-up Bonus!
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS: 5 Rules for Attacking the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
NBA DFS (Thursday, Nov. 3): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Friday, Nov. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Dec. 15): Roll With Paul George vs. Suns?
