The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Charlotte Hornets – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
After an awesome day of showcase matchups, the NBA is back with a seven-game set on Monday. Of the 14 teams in action, a few jump out as elite fantasy plays. The highest Implied Team Total on the slate belongs to the Trail Blazers in a juicy matchup against the Hornets, who rank tenth in the NBA in Pace and fourth-worst in Defensive Rating.
Lillard should be in a great spot to take advantage of the matchup and has the highest ceiling projection of any player on the entire slate. He made headlines last week by becoming the franchise’s leading scorer and has been on a nice run of production since returning from injury. In his past nine games, he has scored at least 24 points eight times while averaging 30.9 points, 7.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.2 steals for 50.2 DraftKings points and 46.7 FanDuel points in 35.0 minutes per game.
Portland comes home after a tough road trip that saw them drop four of their last five games, including a pair of games in Oklahoma City to the lowly Thunder. Despite the team’s struggles, Lillard is coming off a big game in Denver, where he dropped 34 points to go with eight assists and seven rebounds for 56.75 DraftKings points. With the extra motivation of being home and trying to get his team back in the win column in a great matchup, it looks like it’s going to be Dame Time on Monday.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu vs. Houston Rockets – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Another matchup that looks extremely favorable, especially for some value plays, is the Bulls’ contest against the Rockets, who are third-worst in the NBA in Defensive Rating. In that matchup, Dosunmu brings the highest projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on DraftKings and FanDuel, where he also qualifies as a shooting guard. He remains remarkably cheap given his projected role with the Bulls with Alex Caruso (concussion) ruled out for a second straight game. Dosunmu is projected for 32 minutes and is expected to get another start in Caruso’s place.
The second-year guard from Illinois started Friday and played 33 minutes in the Bulls’ win in New York. He finished with nine points, six assists, three rebounds, two blocked shots, and a steal for 29.6 FanDuel points and 27.75 DraftKings points. He also had success on Wednesday in extra minutes after Caruso’s departure, filling in multiple columns on the score sheet and producing nine points and 20.6 FanDuel points.
While he isn’t usually a high-volume scorer, his multi-category production gives him plenty of upside to be a great cheap play if you need to save at guard. As long as he’s starting and remains this cheap, he’ll continue to be an excellent value option, especially in great matchups like this one.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Detroit Pistons – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Kawhi Leonard will take Monday off for injury management, so George should be set up to carry the load against the Pistons, who rank second-to-last in the NBA in Defensive Rating. With Kahwi off the floor, George leads the team with a 33.3% usage rate and produces 1.23 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute. With a 30.6% projected usage rate in this contest, he has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind Tyrese Haliburton, who has eligibility at both guard spots.
In the last game that Leonard sat and George played, PG13 produced 29 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, 52 DraftKings points, and 48.1 FanDuel points in 32 minutes against the Heat. George missed some time himself in mid-December but has looked sharp in his two games back, scoring 22 points in each contest with 48.5 DraftKings points against the Hornets and 36.25 DraftKings points against the 76ers.
George has a very high ceiling while carrying the load in this favorable matchup and could be set up for a monster game.
Top Value: Josh Hart vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
The Blazers’ matchup with the Hornets should set Hart up for success in the midrange, and he has been carrying a heavy workload for Portland, especially with Justise Winslow (ankle) sidelined. Hart has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and the sixth-highest of all small forwards on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he has the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and shooting guard.
Hart has played over 30 minutes in four straight games, including 37 minutes on Friday in Denver. He scored at least a dozen points in each matchup while adding 9.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists. He had a double-double on Friday and finished with 38.75 DraftKings points.
He should have room to work on the wing in this matchup and be able to fill up multiple categories, making him relatively low-risk at this salary with plenty of upside.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Houston Rockets – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, DeRozan trails only George in terms of ceiling projection, and he comes at significant cost savings. He should be ready to blast off against the Rockets.
He’s coming off his second double-double of the season on Friday against the Knicks when he posted 25 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds on his way to 57.4 FanDuel points and 56.75 DraftKings points. Without Caruso on the floor, he picked up some extra point guard responsibilities and turned that into his third game in his last four with over 44 DraftKings points and his sixth game in his past eight games exceeding salary-based expectations.
With Caruso out again in this contest and a great matchup against the Rockets, DeRozan is a great piece to build around.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs. Houston Rockets – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Let’s keep hammering the matchup against the Rockets by looking at Williams, who has the highest projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Williams is a little like Dosunmu in that he doesn’t take a ton of shots but is expected to play plenty of minutes and stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories. He has played at least 29 minutes in each of the Bulls’ last six games, averaging 9.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.7 blocked shots, and 0.5 steals per game. He had at least 10 points in four of those six contests.
While he hasn’t often brought a super-high ceiling, Williams has exceeded expectations in seven of his past 10 games with a +4.58 average Plus/Minus over that span.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Zion Williamson vs. Indiana Pacers – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
After missing two games last week in the health and safety protocols, Williamson is not on the injury report for Monday and has the highest projected ceiling at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, edging out Kevin Durant and DeRozan for the top spot.
Zion was dominating before being sidelined, scoring 25+ points in nine straight games and averaging 30.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocked shots for 51.2 FanDuel points and 52.6 DraftKings points. He did have one down game after that run in a loss to the Bucks before missing those two games.
If he’s back to full strength, this should be a good spot for him against the Pacers. The Pelicans have the third-highest Implied Team Total on the slate and the fourth-highest Pace Differential.
Top Value: Jerami Grant vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Even though he isn’t cheap, Grant has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel behind only Williams and the third-highest at the position on DraftKings. Part of his high projection is due to the excellent matchup against the Hornets, and part is due to more workload coming his way with Winslow out.
Despite Portland’s team struggles, Grant has been impressively consistent, scoring at least 17 points in 15 of his past 16 games, with the only exception being a game he was forced to leave early due to injury. Over that 16-game time frame, he has averaged 23.7 points while adding 3.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 0.8 steals.
While he doesn’t contribute as many peripherals as Hart, Grant is a reliable scorer and should be able to exceed expectations by a significant number in this matchup with Charlotte.
Center
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Because he plays for the Heat — who love to play games with their injury report — Adebayo is questionable for Monday’s contest due to a right shoulder sprain. If he’s out, it would create an excellent matchup for Rudy Gobert on the flip side, but since Bam will probably play, he starts the day with the highest ceiling projection at center on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Adebayo was limited to 18 points and seven boards on Friday, possibly due to his injury, but he was rolling before that with four straight double-doubles and an average of 21.5 points and 13.8 rebounds over that stretch. He reached his ceiling with over 50 DraftKings and FanDuel points against the Pacers at the start of that run, and he could get back to that level if he is healthy enough to play through his shoulder issue Monday.
There’s also a chance that Jimmy Butler (ankle, questionable) is sidelined for this one, and if he is, that means even more usage for Adebayo and a higher ceiling.
Top Value: Walker Kessler at San Antonio Spurs – $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
With Kelly Olynyk (ankle) out for a third straight game, Kessler brings the highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the highest at center on FanDuel. Kessler was traded to the Jazz as part of the Gobert trade, and the rookie from Auburn has been very impressive in his time on the floor.
He has started the past three games for the Jazz and scored double-digit points with precisely two blocks in each contest. On Thursday against Washington, he had 12 points, 14 rebounds, and 36 DraftKings points.
Kessler’s salary has climbed with more playing time, but he has still exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 contests with an average Plus/Minus of +6.51 points per game.
In this matchup with the Spurs’ generous defense, he’s an ideal center to build around while leaving plenty of salary space for stars in other spots.
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