The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Lillard and the Trail Blazers get a favorable matchup against the banged-up Thunder on Monday night and have the third-highest implied team total of the 18 teams on the slate. The Thunder backcourt is dealing with multiple absences, which should set Lillard up in a smash spot.
He has the third-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings and the second-highest at the position on FanDuel.
Lillard has been on a heater lately, with at least 24 points in seven straight games. During that run, he has averaged 33.3 points, 7.3 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 45.3 DraftKings points in 33.5 minutes per game. He’s gone off for over 48 DraftKings points in five of those seven games, and his usage projection for this Monday points to another massive opportunity since it’s the fourth-highest of all the players on the entire slate.
Top Value: LaMelo Ball at Sacramento Kings – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Usually, I try to go much cheaper with my top value picks, but Ball is too good a play to pass up at this price given the workload he has jumped right back into for the Hornets. Charlotte is playing for the second day in a row, so be careful of any injury report shenanigans or plans to rest Ball, but if he plays, he is way underpriced. Even at $8K, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Ball had his first 30-point game of the season on Friday, hitting four three-pointers and contributing four boards, five assists, and a steal on his way to 47.75 DraftKings points and 45.5 FanDuel points against the Nuggets. He has at least 23 points and at least 40 DraftKings points in each of his three games since returning from his most recent injury, and he gets a good matchup against the Kings in the game with the highest over/under on the slate.
It has been an injury-plagued season for Ball, but he looks healthy and ready to contribute. Terry Rozier (hip) was limited to just 12 minutes last night, and if he’s sidelined for this matchup, Ball will have to carry even more of the workload as both scorer and creator for Charlotte as they look to snap their current eight-game losing streak.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $9,500 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Despite a questionable tag, Booker has the highest ceiling projection of all guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel this Monday. He comes in with a surprisingly affordable salary, dipping under $9,000 on FanDuel. He is so underpriced relative to projections that he brings the fourth-best projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, which is highly unusual for a player stud price tag.
We’ve seen just how high Booker’s ceiling can be recently too. He just went off for an incredible 75 DraftKings points and 70.7 FanDuel points on Saturday with 58 points, six rebounds, and five assists against the Pelicans in a four-point Phoneix win. Booker is thriving as a scorer since Chris Paul has returned to shoulder more of the point guard responsibilities, and he might get Deandre Ayton (ankle, questionable) back for this contest as well.
Booker always seems to bring it when he takes on the Lakers, and his ceiling projection is significantly higher than James Harden and Trae Young, who are priced much higher than him. As long as the injury isn’t anything that causes an issue, he should be an excellent cornerstone to build on again on Monday.
Top Value: Isaiah Joe vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (back) or Josh Giddey (illness), Joe is ready to assume a huge role in the Thunder’s offense, so it isn’t surprising that with his minimal salary, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On FanDuel, he’s only available as a point guard, while he’s only a shooting guard on DraftKings, but at either spot on either site, he’s set up to be an elite value.
Joe got his first start of the season on Saturday when both SGA and Giddey were also out, and he delivered 23 points, three rebounds, and a steal for 30.25 DraftKings points and 27.6 FanDuel points in 26 minutes. It was Joe’s fourth game with over 20 DraftKings points in his past six contests, and he has been turning in some solid stat lines off the bench.
When given an expanded role, the third-year guard from Arkansas has flashed some nice upside, but he has often been buried on the depth chart. That definitely won’t be the case on Monday, and if anything, he’ll have even more work coming his way since the Thunder decided to send Tre Mann to the G League, so he’s also out for this matchup, joining SGA and Giddey.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Phoenix Suns – $10,000 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
James brings the second-highest ceiling projection of any player on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday night, and he has the highest ceiling projection at both forward positions. In his 20th year, he is putting up astounding numbers while carrying a 31.5% usage rate. That number may have to go up, too, since he’ll have to go without Anthony Davis (foot) for multiple weeks.
The King has been holding court and turning back the clock lately for the Lakeshow, scoring at least 30 points in four straight contests. He doesn’t have a double-double during that span but has still averaged 7.5 rebounds and 6.8 assists to go with his 32.8 points per game. He has had over 50 DraftKings and FanDuel points in each of those games and has outperformed salary-based expectations in seven of his past nine games on FanDuel and six of his past nine games on DraftKings, where his salary has dropped back to a very palatable $10K.
The Lakers and Suns matchup has the third-highest over/under on the slate, so building around stars with big workloads like Booker and LeBron is a solid strategy to consider.
Top Value: Eugene Omoruyi vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
The Thunder are also dealing with injuries in the frontcourt and bring some good value at both forward spots as well. Omoruyi and his teammates Kenrich Williams and Jalen Williams are the top three in projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Of the three, Williams has the highest draft pedigree and likely the highest ceiling, but he’s also much more expensive, so I think Omoruyi is worth a look if you are trying to go cheap at the small forward spot.
The 25-year-old from Nigeria made his first NBA start on Saturday and had seven points, six rebounds, two assists, and a steal for 19.5 DraftKings points and 20.2 FanDuel points. He was even better in the previous game with 14 points, five rebounds, and three steals on Friday night against Minnesota for 27.75 DraftKings points and 29.5 FanDuel points.
The Thunder rotation is always a little tricky to predict, but if he’s in the lineup again, he’s a great bargain play that contributes in multiple categories in his minutes on the floor.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Zion Williamson vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
In what should be an awesome one-on-one showdown, Zion and the Pelicans are welcoming in Giannis Antetkounmpo and the Bucks. Zion has been going off lately and has the third-highest ceiling projection at power forward at FanDuel and the second-highest ceiling projection at the position at DraftKings.
Over his past nine games, Zion has scored at least 30 points six times while posting a 30.5% usage rate. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in six of those games, averaging 30.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.9 blocked shots.
Williamson is significantly cheaper than Giannis and comes with multi-category potential. Giannis has been a little underwhelming lately while battling knee issues, and Zion has combined volume and efficiency with his recent chances. Over that nine-game stretch, he’s shooting 65.8% from the field, including going 12-for-15 (80%) in his most recent contest.
Top Value: Harrison Barnes vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Aside from the super-cheap Thunder players mentioned above, Barnes is the best value at forward, bringing the second-best projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the eighth-highest at power forward on DraftKings.
Barnes has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past nine games. He and the Kings have the highest implied team total on the slate in the game with the highest over/under. It’s also a dream matchup for power forwards and centers.
Barnes has scored double-digit points in nine straight games, averaging 16.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. He had 19 points and seven boards to go with three steals on his way to over 36 DraftKings and FanDuel points on Friday in Detroit in his most recent game, and he has quietly put together a nice run as a “glue guy” while helping the Kings turn things around and put together a very strong season.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Charlotte Hornets – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Barnes has been nice for the Kings, but if you really want to attack this favorable matchup against the Hornets, Sabonis is the guy to consider. The big man is eligible at power forward and center on FanDuel but only center on DraftKings, but he still gets my spot as a top ceiling play despite Joel Emibiid being on the board. Sabonis is over $2.5K cheaper than Embiid on FanDuel and almost $2K cheaper on DraftKings. He brings a similar ceiling, though, and gets a great matchup against the Hornets, who were just wrecked by Nikola Jokic for 95.75 DraftKings points last night. Sabonis isn’t quite on Jokic’s level, but he has a similar well-rounded game and should be able to take advantage of the same weaknesses in Charlotte’s defensive scheme.
Sabonis has also been playing well, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last seven on DraftKings and seven of his past eight on FanDuel. He had a triple-double seven games ago with 11 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists against the Bulls, and dating back to that performance, he has averaged 19.7 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game with a double-double in every single one of those contests.
Top Value: Thomas Bryant at Phoenix Suns – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
With Davis sidelined, Bryant continues to be underpriced, especially on DraftKings. He has been priced up on FanDuel but still brings the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the position, while on DraftKings, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all centers and the second-highest on the entire slate.
Bryant stepped up on Friday after Davis was injured with 21 points, six rebounds, and 34 DraftKings points, and he followed that up with 16 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, and 33 DraftKings points in 33 minutes on Sunday while he moved into the starting lineup in a matchup against his former team, the Wizards.
As long as he stays healthy, he should get significant playing time and opportunities for as long as Davis is sidelined and makes a great option in the middle. If you need a cheaper play on FanDuel, keep a close eye on the Blazers’ and Hawks’ situation to see if Drew Eubanks or Frank Kaminsky are in line for minutes.
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