The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Houston Rockets – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Trae Young gets the nod for me over Stephen Curry given how well Young has been playing lately and how poorly Curry has been playing. The cheaper price tag helps as well. Young has had a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games. He has recorded a double-double in seven of those eight games averaging 29.75 points per game and 10.5 assists per game during that time.
This matchup against the Rockets features by far the highest game total on the slate with 226.5 points and the Hawks have the highest implied total with 118.25 points. The Rockets rank first in Pace this season and 20th in Defensive Rating. Young has an incredibly high ceiling in this matchup since he is so involved in the Hawks offense. He is second in the league in usage rate with 34.3%. He has also scored over 55 DraftKings points in four out of his last five games. It’s a great spot for Young.
Top Value: Jalen Brunson at Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Back to the Jalen Brunson well we go. Brunson saw a $500 price jump on both sites, but still comes in as our highest-rated point guard in our model on DraftKings. He’s had a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. Brunson has also played over 30 minutes in each of those five games.
The main factor in this play however is the loss of Luka Doncic. Doncic who leads not only the Mavericks but the entire league in usage rate, will be out for a little while. In five games without Doncic in the lineup, Brunson is averaging 17.8 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, and 7.6 assists per game. He is also playing 34.8 minutes per game without Doncic. All of his stats see a major boost.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Fred VanVleet vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
A big factor in DFS NBA is how many minutes the player you want to roster is going to play. That is certainly not a concern with Fred VanVleet, who leads the entire league in minutes by a wide margin with 38.1 per game. VanVleet is also second to Pascal Siakam in usage rate for the Raptors with 23.2%. He leads the team in points averaging 19.1 per game and assists averaging 6.4 per game.
This home matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a juicy one. The Kings rank 27th in Defensive Rating this season and are tied for fifth with the fastest Pace in the league. They are allowing 114 points per game which is the second most in the league. The Raptors have the second highest implied total tonight with 112.75 points. VanVleet will be a strong contributor to that number.
Note: VanVleet is only PG eligible on FanDuel.
Top Value: Armoni Brooks at Atlanta Hawks – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
The price tag is catching up to Armoni Brooks, but I still believe he provides a good amount of value on this slate. Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. continue to be out for the Rockets. Using our On/Off tool, Brooks has played the most minutes on the floor without Green and Porter Jr. with 267 minutes. D.J. Augustin grabbed the start last game, but Brooks was the main Rockets point guard.
Over his last three games, Brooks is is averaging 17.6 points per game, 5.3 rebounds per game and 4.3 assists per game. He has averaged a +16.10 Plus/Minus on DraftKings during that time. This game environment suits him well as it will be filled with plenty of fantasy goodness. The Rockets are 10.5-point underdogs, but if they can keep it close Brooks will be one of the main reasons why.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
With or without Jaylen Brown, the Boston Celtics have been led by Jayson Tatum. Brown is playing tonight on a 30-minute restriction, but Tatum is the player that you want to target for the Celtics. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in five out of his last six games. The only one he missed was last game when they were on their last leg of a 5-game road trip against the pesky Phoenix Suns.
Tatum has averaged 30.2 points per game and 9.5 rebounds per game in his last six games. He has shot 20 or more field goals in five of those six games. The Celtics are one-point home underdogs in what will be a great game environment for Tatum. He is reasonably priced on both sites and makes for a strong upside play if you want to get off some of the chalk.
Top Value: BJ Boston vs. Phoenix Suns – $3,000 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Coming in as our top small forward value on DraftKings is BJ Boston from the Clippers. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate tonight at the small forward position. With Paul George likely to sit again, Boston is projected to play 25 minutes. He is a very scoring dependent player, but has had double digit field goal attempts in three straight games.
This matchup against the Phoenix Suns certainly is not ideal. The Suns rank second in the league in Defensive Rating and have only given up 104.4 points per game. They do however rank fourth in Pace this season and they are only favored by three points against the Clippers. I prefer Boston on DraftKings where he has a 94% Bargain Rating and a great chance to pay off his salary.
Note: BJ Boston is only SG eligible on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Boston Celtics – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
After seeing a slight pay decrease on DraftKings, Giannis Antetokounmpo is back up closer to $12,000 now. I guess that is what happens when you post 79 DraftKings points, scoring 41 points and grabbing 17 rebounds in a game against the Rockets. This matchup against the Celtics is a little different, but this is still a fantastic spot with a high ceiling for one, if not the best player in the league.
The Celtics are shooting just 44.2% from the field this season which has allowed their opponents to grab 35.9 defensive rebounds per game which is the fifth most in the league. They also just gave up 21 points and 15 rebounds in only 26 minutes to JaVale McGee. This game total is tied for the second highest on the slate at 221 points and Antetokounmpo should be very active tonight.
Top Value: Marvin Bagley at Toronto Raptors – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Our model absolutely loves Marvin Bagley as a value play tonight. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of anyone on the entire slate on DraftKings. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in six out of his last seven games and his price still remains relatively cheap at both sites. With Richaun Holmes out, Bagley is in line for another heavy workload. Our model has him projected to play 28 minutes.
This matchup against the Raptors is tied for the second highest total on the slate at 221 points despite the Raptors playing at the second slowest Pace this season. Bagley had his first start of the season last game against the massive Cavaliers frontcourt. Keep an eye on the news to see if he starts again. Even if he comes off the bench, I love the value that he brings on the slate tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs Washington Wizards – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Whenever the Denver Nuggets are on a slate, this article comes prewritten with Nikola Jokic as the top center option. He is simply playing on a different level right now. Jokic is not only the top center option, but he has the highest ceiling in our model at any position. He leads the league in Player Efficiency Rating by a wide margin. He leads the Nuggets in points, rebounds, assists, and steals this season.
Over the last four games, Jokic has had three triple-doubles and is averaging 28.3 points per game, 13.3 rebounds per game, and 11 assists per game. He hasn’t scored fewer than 62 DraftKings points and his high is 75 DraftKings points during that time. The Wizards have allowed the fifth most points in the paint this season. Jokic is the top pay-up option on the slate.
Top Value: Xavier Tillman vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The Memphis Grizzlies will likely be extremely thin in their frontcourt tonight. They have already ruled out Brandon Clarke. Steven Adams is listed as doubtful while Jaren Jackson Jr. is listed as questionable. That will provide ample playing time for Xavier Tillman, who is our highest projected Plus/Minus center on DraftKings tonight where he has a 94% Bargain Rating.
This matchup against Joel Embiid is the scary part about this play. Embiid is an absolute beast and is known for getting opposing bigs into foul trouble. I would not be one bit surprised if Tillman were to foul out tonight, but at this cheap price tag he should still be able to return value. He has had double digit fantasy points in six straight games with his highest total being 29.75 points.
Note: Xavier Tillman is only PF eligible on FanDuel.
