The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at Detroit Pistons – $10,900 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Despite being significantly cheaper than Luka Doncic on DraftKings and FanDuel, Tyrese Haliburton has the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models for both sites. The Pacers fell short in Saturday’s NBA In-Season Championship game but had a great run, beating the Celtics and Bucks to get there. The short three-game tournament brought out the best in Haliburton, who averaged 26.5 points, 14.0 assists, and 8.5 rebounds per game while shooting 56.8% from the field.
The Pacers will look to bounce back against the Pistons tonight. They are a seven-point road favorite, implied for 127.25 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. This is a fantastic spot for Haliburton, with the Pistons in danger of breaking the record for most consecutive losses. They have lost 19 straight games and are without their starting center, Jalen Duren for the next two weeks with an ankle sprain. The Pistons allowed 74 points in the paint without Duren in their last game.
Expect another high-assist double-double from Haliburton against the Pistons.
Top Value: Fred VanVleet vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Priced in the upper mid-range, Fred VanVleet is one of the best values on the slate. Specifically on FanDuel, VanVleet has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among all non-center positions. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine consecutive games and has a 93% Bargain Rating at his cheap $7,800 price tag. Over that nine-game stretch, VanVleet is averaging a near double-double with 16.2 points and 9.6 assists per game. VanVleet is projected for very high ownership on FanDuel.
The Rockets are 8.5-point home favorites against the Spurs, ranking 27th in defensive rating and fourth in pace. They are allowing 122.8 points and 28.2 assists per game, which both rank as the third-highest in the league. This is a great matchup for VanVleet, who has a double-double in five of his last nine games and is averaging a career-high 8.7 assists per game.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Orlando Magic – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Priced under $10,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Donovan Mitchell is a contrarian pay-up option worth getting exposure to in tournaments. Projected for under 5% ownership on both sites, Mitchell will benefit from the absence of Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert. With Mobley and LeVert off the floor this season, Mitchell has a +3.71 usage rate and a team-high + 7.25 Plus/Minus. His rebounding has taken a major leap without Mobley. Mitchell recorded a career-high 13 rebounds last game.
The Cavaliers are a slight road underdog against the Magic who have a 10-2 home record this season. The Magic have the second-best defensive rating in the league, but Mitchell had no trouble in this same matchup last Wednesday. He scored 35 points on 12-for-24 shooting with seven rebounds, six assists and a 37.7% usage rate. Great spot for a low-owned Mitchell.
Top Value: Seth Curry at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The Mavericks are dealing with a plethora of injuries with Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, Grant Williams, and Maxi Kleber out. Luka Doncic runs the entire offense, but he needs a sidekick. Seth Curry has started one game this year and is projected to draw the start tonight and play around 28 minutes. Over his last four games, Curry is averaging 10.3 points per game while shooting 50% from behind the arc. He has recorded 20+ DraftKings points and a positive Plus/Minus in three of the games.
Curry is a cheap way to get exposure to the Mavericks who are a 1.5-point road favorite against the Grizzlies, implied for 114 points. The Grizzlies defense funnel opponents to shoot perimeter shots rather than in the paint. They are allowing a league-low 42.5 points per game in the paint, while opponents are shooting a league-high 39.5% from behind the arc. This matchup sets up perfectly for Curry who has attempted over 50% of his field goals from downtown this season.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Charlotte Hornets – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
The Miami Heat will play their fourth straight game without Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Kyle Lowry has also popped up on the injury report this morning with a questionable status. Jimmy Butler has had a poor last two games, but he does have the highest usage rate increase with Adebayo, Herro, and Lowry off the floor. Priced under $9,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Butler is in a great bounce-back spot. Don’t let Butler’s last two games deter his positive outlook for tonight’s game.
Expect a low-scoring game environment, with this total currently at 222 points. Even in this matchup, Butler can easily pay off his salary. The Hornets are tied for the lowest defensive rating in the league at 120.7. They are allowing 121.3 points per game and opponents to shoot 49.8%. Prioritize Butler on FanDuel, where he is much cheaper and has 11 Pro Trends.
Top Value: Jalen Williams vs Utah Jazz – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Jalen Williams is coming off his best game of the season, finishing with 45.25 DraftKings points. He scored 28 points while shooting a ridiculous 12-for-15 from the field. Williams added five rebounds, two assists, three steals, and one block. His salary his risen a little bit on both sites, but not enough for this cupcake matchup against the Jazz. Luguentz Dort is out, which will benefit Williams. He has the second-highest usage rate increase behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +3.68%.
The Thunder are double-digit home favorites against the Jazz, who rank 25th in defensive rating and allow 119.7 points per game. Implied for 123.25 points, the Thunder are in a great spot to rattle off their 15th win of the season. The Jazz are also allowing the most steals and second-most blocks per game. Williams has a chance to stuff the stat sheet again tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
The clear-cut pay-up option at the power forward position is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Most of the ownership at the top of the pricing tier is not going to Giannis, which makes him a strong tournament option. The Bulls have been a shockingly great interior defensive team, allowing only 43.5 points per game in the paint, which is the second-best in the league. However, Giannis is a completely different cover than most players and is averaging 30.5 points per game in their two meetings.
Along with his 30+ points per game, Giannis is also averaging 12.5 rebounds per game against the Bulls this season. That shouldn’t be surprising, with the Bulls ranking 26th in rebounding percentage and Giannis averaging double-digit rebounds for the seventh straight year. Giannis is a great way to differentiate lineups on this slate, and has been playing great basketball lately.
Top Value: Jabari Smith Jr. vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
In his second year in the league, Jabari Smith Jr. looks more polished and comfortable on the court. It shows in his stats as Smith Jr. is still averaging around 12 points per game but is shooting much better at 49.7% from the field and 35.7% from behind the arc. Smith Jr.’s biggest leap has been his rebounding. He has jumped to 8.5 rebounds per game and recorded a career-high 18 rebounds against the Thunder last week. Smith Jr. has double-double upside at his mid-range salary tonight.
As previously mentioned, the Spurs are a poor defense team and are in a downhill spiral, losing 16 consecutive games. They rank 26th in rebounding percentage, allowing 45.5 rebounds per game. With the highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position on both sites and his high projected ownership across the industry, Smith Jr. is a cash game cornerstone.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Atlanta Hawks – $11,900 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
The decision at the top of the center position may come down to health. Joel Embiid is questionable to play tonight but was seen at the shoot-around, which is normally a positive sign. With his status in jeopardy, Nikola Jokic is the top ceiling center to target. Jokic has uncharacteristically shot 18-58 (31%) in his last two games but has still recorded 55+ DraftKings points in both games due to his high peripherals. The shooting percentage is worrisome, but Jokic’s 40% usage rate is a big positive.
This is a fantastic spot for Jokic to return to his elite shooting percentages, as the Hawks rank 27th in points allowed in the paint with 54.8 per game. The Hawks also rank 20th in rebounds and 29th in assists allowed this season. Jokic is in a perfect matchup to record his league-leading 10th triple-double of the season.
He has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Top Value: Omer Yurtseven at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Omer Yurtseven has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at all positions on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings behind Jokic. He is projected to be the most popular player on the slate as the Jazz are dealing with several injuries to their frontcourt. Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen are both out, while John Collins is questionable. Our modes have Yurtseven projected to play 26 minutes, but that could increase if he stays out of foul trouble and if Collins is also out.
Yurtseven displayed a ceiling against the Trail Blazers with 15 rebounds, nine points, and four assists. The Thunder rank 29th in rebounding percentage at 46.8%, making this a prime spot for Yurtseven to record his first double-double of the season. The Jazz are heavy underdogs, but they will need his size in the paint. Yurtseven is the best play of the entire night.
