The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Anfernee Simons vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Simons has had an up-and-down start to the year, but for the next couple of weeks, his arrow should point straight up while Damian Lillard (calf) is on the shelf. Over the past calendar year, Simons has a 19.8% usage rate and produces 0.75 DraftKings points with Lillard on the floor, but with Lillard and the now-traded C.J. McCollum off the floor, Simons’ usage rate jumps to a team-high 28.6%, and he produces 1.08 DraftKings points per minute.
He gets a great matchup to start his stint as the focus of the Blazers’ offense as Portland welcomes in the up-tempo Rockets, who are fifth in the NBA in pace and have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing PGs this season. Portland has the second-highest Pace Differential of the 22 teams on the slate.
Simons has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position on this slate and also has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at PG on DraftKings and is also in the top 10 on FanDuel. Usually Plus/Minus is a stat we focus on more for value plays, but it shows how high Simons’ ceiling is compared to his price point due to his projected bump in usage.
Top Value: Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Normally, I try to find a cheaper play to highlight at PG, but the value on DSJ is too good to overlook on this slate since he is expected to remain in place as the Hornets’ primary PG in this contest against the Magic, who are extremely depleted at PG as well. If you are looking for cheaper plays, Monte Morris, Shaedon Sharpe, and De’Anthony Melton are also projected to return nice value at their affordable price points.
Smith has been catapulted into a major role in Charlotte with Terry Rozier (ankle, doubtful) and LaMelo Ball (ankle, out) sidelined. He has started each of the past two games and has been very consistent with 37 DraftKings points and 39.4 FanDuel points in his first start against the Hawks, followed by 39.25 DraftKings points and 39.1 FanDuel points on a double-double against his former team, the Knicks.
On DraftKings, Smith has the second-highest rating and the highest projected Plus/Minus at the position and matches seven Pro Trends. He brings the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at any position. On FanDuel, he brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus and the third-highest Rating and matches eight Pro Trends.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Booker brings an elite ceiling just about every time he takes the floor and has consistently been delivering big performances in the early part of this season. He has at least 33 points and at least 45 DraftKings points in each of his three most recent games and is coming off a strong showing of 53 DraftKings points and 52.9 FanDuel points in his most recent game when he helped the Suns rise past the Warriors on Tuesday.
On DraftKings, Booker has the highest median projection of any SG, and he is second in that stat on FanDuel behind only Dejounte Murray, who is eligible at both backcourt spots on that site. Booker also brings the third-highest ceiling projection at SG on each site and the second-highest usage projection at SG.
In addition, he matches 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel and nine Pro Trends on DraftKings. Book it!
Top Value: Josh Richardson vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The top projected Plus/Minus at SG on both sites comes from Richardson, who is expected to continue to see extra work with Devin Vassell (knee) and Joshua Primo (glute) already out. Richardson is projected for 33.03 minutes and 17.12% usage with a ceiling projection of just under 50 and a solid median projection of just over 30.
On Wednesday, Richardson got the start against the Timberwolves and poured in 38.75 DraftKings points on 11 points, 10 assists, three rebounds, two steals and a blocked shot. He has exceeded salary expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of his past three contests and should be set up to deliver great value again as the Spurs host the Bulls.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
With the Lakers 0-4, it feels like a vintage LeBron takeover performance is looming, and our projections are pointing to tonight to be his monster night. He has the highest ceiling projection of any SF on DraftKings and the second-highest of any SF on FanDuel, behind only Giannis Antetokoumpo.
LeBron has gotten no help from his teammates and is losing plenty of potential assists as a result. He still posted over 60 DraftKings points twice this year and is averaging 25.3 points, 10.0 rebounds and 7.8 assists in 36.2 minutes per contest. He has produced the most DraftKings points per minute of any SF on this slate.
He matches 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
With even decent shooting around him, a triple-double is definitely within reach for the 37-year-old, who gets a favorable matchup against the Timberwolves as the Lakers go back to Minnesota. Both these teams are in the top five in pace, so there should be plenty of points on the board.
Top Value: Franz Wagner vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
The experiment to play Wagner at PG just got put into hyperdrive by another backcourt blow to Orlando. The Magic will be without Cole Anthony (oblique) in addition to Jalen Suggs (ankle), Markelle Fultz (toe), and Gary Harris (knee). Since R.J. Hampton is really the only other PG option, Wagner should get a huge bump in usage and has shown he can rise to the task.
He has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate at DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Josh Richardson. Wagner is projected to have a 26.18% usage rate, and he has outperformed his salary expectation in each of his two games this season with a usage rate over 25%. On Wednesday, he has his best game of the season, scoring 22 points to go with five rebounds and five assists on his way to 37.25 DraftKings points.
Wagner also is in an ideal matchup since playing PG against the Hornets has been an excellent strategy over the past few seasons. That trend has continued recently with Jalen Brunson lighting them up on Wednesday for over 60 DraftKings points.
If Wagner takes the helm and runs the show, he’ll have a high ceiling and bring great value to this matchup opposite DSJ.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo vs. New York Knicks – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Giannis is the highest-priced player in action on Friday on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but with great reason! He brings one of the highest slates of any player in the NBA whenever he steps on the floor, and he has regularly been delivering at an extraordinary level in the early going this season with Khris Middleton (wrist) still sidelined.
Antetokoumpo has produced a jaw-dropping 1.94 DraftKings points and 1.88 FanDuel points per minute so far this season. He has posted a 37.2% usage rate while carrying Milwaukee to a 3-0 start and averaged 36.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.0 blocks in 33.9 minutes per game.
Amazingly, he has over 58 DraftKings points in each game this season, and he’s coming off a monster performance against the Nets on Wednesday. In that game, Giannis had 74.5 DraftKings points and 72.3 FanDuel points on 43 points, 14 rebounds, five assists and three blocks.
Top Value: Deni Avdija vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,200 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Since we’ve looked at some higher-priced value plays, let’s look at a bargain PF. Avdija is in a fantasy-friendly matchup between the Pacers and Wizards, who have the highest Pace Differential on the board.
Avdija has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of any PF on FanDuel, where his salary just dropped $500. He’s held his salary a little more on DraftKings but still ranks in the top 10 at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
The 21-year-old hasn’t delivered huge production yet but has been battling an ankle injury and has been limited by foul trouble. The opportunities are still there, which gives him upside as he finds his footing. He played a season-high 26 minutes on Tuesday and has had two days to continue to recover. In that game, he had nine points, seven rebounds, two blocks and two assists for 27.25 DraftKings points and 29.4 FanDuel points. If he’s near those numbers again, he’ll be a great bargain option.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nicola Jokic – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Jokic has the second-highest ceiling projection of all players at all positions on FanDuel and DraftKings, behind only Giannis. He’s expected to be in a great environment since the Nuggets have the highest implied point total, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
The Joker has already posted two triple-doubles this season with 58.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors and 66 DraftKings points against the Thunder in his next game. He has just missed that lofty target the last two games and is coming off a monster game against the Lakers in which he finished with 31 points, 13 rebounds, nine assists, and 68.75 DraftKings points.
He’s a very expensive option, but his consistent production across the board makes him worth considering.
Top Value: Clint Capela at Detroit Pistons – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
The Hawks are playing their second straight game in Detroit, and Capela is a solid midrange play at center in the rematch after picking up four blocked shots to go with 10 rebounds and six points on Tuesday. Prior to that contest, Capela had his first double-double of the season last Sunday against Charlotte, showing that he is working back to full strength after a thumb injury slowed his ramp-up during the preseason.
He has averaged a double-double with at least 1.5 blocks over each of the past five seasons, and he should continue to be a reliable value play in this rematch against Detroit.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Capela offers the highest ceiling projection and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all players priced under $6K on the entire slate.
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