The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Philadephia 76ers – $9,400 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Despite a tough loss to the Bucks, Harden posted fantastic numbers in Tuesday’s opener, going for 20 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, two blocks, and a steal.
Harden’s ability to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis is why his ceiling is so remarkably high from game to game. He’s an above-average rebounder and shot-blocker from the guard position, and he racks up points and dimes at an elite clip.
More of the same should be expected tonight against the Sixers as Brooklyn looks for its first win of the season.
Top Value: Spencer Dinwiddie vs. Indiana Pacers – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Dinwiddie had a solid Wizards debut, going for 13 points, six assists, and four rebounds, but the real intrigue tonight is Bradley Beal’s availability.
Beal is dealing with a bruised right hip sustained in Wednesday’s opener, and he’s questionable to take the court against the Pacers. Even if Beal plays, he may not be 100%, boosting Dinwiddie’s value in a matchup that has a 226.5 over/under with just a 1.5-point spread.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Concerns about LaVine’s production following the Bulls’ additions of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan seem to have been allayed for at least one game.
Last season, LaVine scored at least 30 points in 25 games, at least 40 in four games, and posted a 50-pointer against the Hawks in April. In Chicago’s season opener, LaVine led the team in scoring with 34 points and chipped in seven boards, four dimes, a steal, and a block while committing just two turnovers. That’s pretty impressive.
Chicago’s usage in that game was pretty evenly distributed, though it’s worth noting that LaVine (28.4%) finished just behind Nikola Vucevic (29.3%) for the team lead.
Top Value: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
KCP has been a boom-or-bust fantasy option throughout his career, though when we’re targeting value on a DFS slate, we should always follow the minutes. Caldwell-Pope logged 27 minutes in his Wizards debut, and even though he wasn’t highly productive with his playing time, anyone on the court for 25+ minutes at a sub-$4,000 price tag is worth your time.
With Rui Hachimura (personal) still out of action, KCP and Kyle Kuzma should continue to log plenty of minutes in a very fantasy-friendly game environment. Tonight’s Wizards/Pacers matchup has a 226.5 over/under with just a 1.5-point spread. Get KCP into lineups, and spend up elsewhere.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,300 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
After a monster 2020-21 season, Durant looks poised to replicate that production. In Tuesday’s loss to the Bucks, he did everything he could to will his team to victory, going for 32 points, 11 boards, four assists, and two blocks.
The counting stats are right on par with Durant’s always lofty expectations, but the most notable number was 42.6. That was Durant’s usage percentage, and it leads the NBA through one game. OK, small sample size, but he’s playing on a team that’s extremely weak outside of he and James Harden, so the heavy usage should continue moving forward.
It’s no wonder he’s got the highest ceiling at small forward on tonight’s slate.
Top Value: Terrence Ross vs. New York Knicks – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Much like KCP above, Ross has been far from a model of consistency in the realm of fantasy hoops. Fortunately, we’re looking for minutes and opportunities, and Ross seems to have both.
In Wednesday’s opener, Ross scored 15 points on 10 shots across 27 minutes. That’s not elite production, but given his price and his ability to heat up on any given night, Ross makes a fine value against the Knicks.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Washington Wizards – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Sabonis made an appearance here in Wednesday’s column, and he played so well, I’m including him again. The big man went for 33 points and 15 boards in Wednesday’s loss to the Hornets, and while his lack of defensive stats may seem concerning, he’s never been a high blocks or steals guy.
What stood out the most from his opening-night performance is the field-goal attempts and especially the three-point attempts. Sabonis nailed four-of-six triples and shot the ball 19 times. Sabonis has never made more than one triple per game in any season of his career, but if he can develop a consistent outside game, he could be lethal on offense.
Top Value: Evan Mobley vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Mobley’s price has jumped significantly since Wednesday, and it’s not hard to see why. In the Cavs’ loss to the Grizz, this year’s No. 3 pick amassed a solid 17 points, nine boards, six dimes, a swipe, and a swat across 38 minutes.
Playing time doesn’t seem to be a concern, nor does production. Even after a spike in price on both sites, Mobley’s upside against the Hornets is too juicy to pass up. That contest sports a healthy 226.5 over/under with just a two-point spread.
Mobley is a better value on FanDuel where he has a 94% Bargain Rating.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. San Antonio Spurs – $10,200 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
A consensus top fantasy pick in season-long formats, Jokic is a monster for DFS purposes, too. The reigning MVP went 26/10/8 a season ago and picked up right where he left off with a 27-point, 13-board performance in Denver’s win over Phoenix on Wednesday.
The Joker only dished two assists in the season-opener, but he’ll get back on track in that category after notching 16 triple-doubles last season. Tonight’s matchup with the Spurs will be a pace-down spot for Jokic and the Nuggets, but he’s got a solid defensive matchup against a team that ranked in the top-10 in both opponent three-point percentage and opponent rebounds in 2020-21.
Top Value: Andre Drummond vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
My goodness! Drummond played well in his Sixers debut, and that’s a huge understatement. Despite coming off the bench and logging just 19 minutes, he stuffed the stat sheet with six points, 17 boards, three assists, two steals, and two blocks. That’s incredible per-minute production, but it gets better.
Joel Embiid is questionable with knee soreness, and if he’s unable to go, Drummond would likely slide into the starting lineup, where he could be an even more potent fantasy force. According to our Vegas Dashboard, Brooklyn-Philly has the highest over/under on the slate (228.5), and the spread is only 1.5 points. There should be plenty of opportunities for both teams to score a lot of fantasy points.
Be sure to monitor Embiid’s status leading up to roster lock. Drummond’s 83% Bargain Rating makes him a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel.
