Friday night delivers a huge 11-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,600
Coming off a 50 DraftKings point effort vs. the Pistons on Wednesday, Ball should continue to flourish Friday. While the Hornets have Brandon Miller back, Miles Bridges (knee) will be joining Nick Richards (ribs) on the sidelines tonight. Albeit a limited sample of only 32 minutes, with the latter two players off the court this season, Ball’s usage has leaped 12.7 percentage points to an absurd 49.6%, and he has scored 1.7 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
This matchup is also terrific for Ball, with the Pacers ranking seventh in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (235.5 points), and Ball should score nothing less than 50 DraftKings points in this spot.
Top Value: Cody Martin vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,800
Martin is another strong target from the shorthanded Hornets. Starter or not, the veteran should see around 30 minutes tonight with Bridges sidelined. With Bridges and Richards off the floor this season, Martin is producing 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 17% usage rate.
This slate-high total with the Pacers is obviously an elite setting (235.5 points), and Martin is a strong bet for over 20 DraftKings points in this situation.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick White vs. Brooklyn Nets – $7,200
White continues to be underpriced for life without Jaylen Brown (hip) and Kristaps Porzingis (foot). White has gone over 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts with Brown and Porzingis sidelined, and White is amassing 41.8 DraftKings PPG with those two starters inactive over the last two seasons (five games). White’s usage has risen 5.1 percentage points in those contests, and as always, the Celtics are expected to score a ton of points tonight, with their implied team total ranking fifth on the slate (117.25 points).
White deserves to be priced over $8,000 in this situation, and he needs to be rostered at this reasonable salary.
Top Value: Brandon Boston at Orlando Magic – $4,400
Boston is a tough value to overlook, even in this difficult spot vs. the Magic, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency. The Pelicans remain without CJ McCollum (adductor), Herbert Jones (shoulder), and Jordan Hawkins (back) for the third straight game, keeping Boston as a starter. With the starting job, the 22-year-old has been productive, with 31.4 DraftKings points in a huge 37.4 minutes per game.
No New Orleans player has seen more playing time than Boston in these last two games, and he is clearly underpriced for that heavy volume. This season, the wing is generating 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,500
Tatum is the undisputed No. 1 play at small forward tonight. With Brown and Porzingis out, the Celtics’ offense is heavily concentrated around Tatum and White. With a 35.5% usage rate – which is a 3.5 percentage point lift from his average – Tatum is leading the Celtics with a huge 1.8 DraftKings PPM with Brown and Porzingis off the floor this season.
Per usual, there are blowout concerns surrounding Boston, with them being a 13-point favorite over the Nets, but if Tatum ends up seeing a normal workload, he should put up a huge fantasy score.
Top Value: Bilal Coulibaly at Memphis Grizzlies – $6,200
Coulibaly was held to 16 DraftKings points his last time out, but this came against the Warriors, who rank second in defensive efficiency. His role remained massive at 39 minutes with Kyle Kuzma (groin) out, and Coulibaly should get back on track tonight with Kuzma still sidelined and the Wizards facing the Grizzlies. Memphis ranks fifth in pace this season, and before the dud vs. Golden State, Coulibaly had contributed 34 DraftKings points in 34 minutes per game in his previous two with Kuzma unavailable.
Coulibaly handles a 20.3% usage rate with Kuzma off the floor this season, and he is a great sleeper to attack in this high total of 231.5 points vs. Memphis, which ranks third on the slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Johnson at Detroit Pistons – $8,500
Johnson has been a beast, scoring at least 54 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts. His usage has increased from 19.1% last season to 24.7% this season, lifting Johnson to 1.23 DraftKings PPM so far this year. Tonight, the forward faces the Pistons, and this game’s total is set at a healthy 227.5 points. Plus, the Pistons are only favored by one point, which is the tightest spread of this slate.
With huge playing time in this projected nail-biter, Johnson has 50 DraftKings point upside.
Top Value: Santi Aldama vs. Washington Wizards – $6,100
With Desmond Bane (oblique) and Marcus Smart (ankle) inactive for the last four games, Aldama has been a strong fantasy option, with at least 34 DraftKings points in three of these contests. Now, Ja Morant (hip) will be joining Bane and Smart on the sidelines, further boosting Aldama’s value. With Morant, Bane, and Smart off the court this season, Aldama’s usage has risen 3.9 percentage points to 21.6%, and he has scored 1.0 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Aldama has logged 32.6 minutes per game in his last four, and that number should grow even further with Morant now joining the Grizzlies’ lengthy inactive sheet. To put a cherry on top, Aldama is going against a Wizards team that ranks first in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Despite all their injuries, Memphis’ implied team total is the second-highest of this 11-game slate (119.5 points), which is a clear testament that they are in a truly elite spot. Aldama should have zero issues outproducing his salary and is a terrific option for all formats.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Miami Heat – $11,800
If Jamal Murray (questionable, concussion) remains out and joins Aaron Gordon (calf) on the sidelines, Jokic will be a tough fade, regardless of this poor matchup vs. the Heat, who rank 12th in defensive efficiency. Facing the Thunder and their league-best defense Wednesday, Jokic exploded for an 82.5 DraftKings point triple-double across 39 minutes with both Murray and Gordon inactive. With a 6.8 percentage point increase to his usage rate and a 10.5 percentage point increase to his assist percentage, Jokic is producing an insane 2.0 DraftKings PPM with both Murray and Gordon off the floor over the last two seasons.
Jokic is clearly matchup-proof if Murray remains out tonight, and Jokic will be the No. 1 play on the board if that is the case again.
Top Value: Isaiah Stewart vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,300
With Jalen Duren (ankle) doubtful, Stewart is the projected starting center for the Pistons and a great punt play. With Duren only available for seven minutes Wednesday vs. the Hornets, Stewart posted 25.3 DraftKings points in 25.6 minutes. The center started the second half in place of Duren, and Stewart should approach 30 minutes tonight as Detroit’s starting center. Stewart made 13 starts in place of Duren last season, and the former averaged 24.9 DraftKings points in 29.1 minutes per game in that role.
Add in that this is an elite matchup vs. the Hawks, who rank fifth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and Stewart is good chalk to embrace Friday.
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