Friday presents an eight-game NBA slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Denver Nuggets – $9,800
Irving brings the highest ceiling on the slate among guards in our NBA models and is a player you must have some exposure to Friday. Luka Doncic (wrist) is sidelined and in the eight starts Irving has made without Doncic the last two seasons, Irving is generating 51.3 DraftKings PPG. Overall, with Doncic off the court the last two seasons, Irving’s usage rate has risen 3.6 percentage points, and his assist percentage has skyrocketed 11.4 percentage points, resulting in 1.5 DraftKings PPG for the guard, via the On/Off Tool.
Ranking 12th in pace and 17th in defensive efficiency, the Nuggets have been a solid matchup to attack this season. Irving has a strong chance to exceed 5x value in this spot.
Top Value: Kevin Porter Jr. vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,200
The Clippers will be without Norman Powell (hamstring) for a few weeks. With the veteran missing his first game of the season Wednesday, Porter Jr. stuffed the stat sheet en route to a season-high 28.5 DraftKings points across 20 minutes off the bench vs. the Magic. Orlando is a brutal matchup, ranking third in defensive efficiency and 28th in pace. Friday’s matchup with the Kings is much more appealing, with Sacramento ranking ninth in pace and 14th in defensive efficiency.
At 31.1%, Porter Jr. ranks second only to James Harden in usage with Powell off the floor this season, and with this huge rate, Porter Jr. is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM. The ex-Rocket isn’t the safest option as a bench player, but Porter Jr. is clearly underpriced for his expected usage and is a risk worth taking at this low salary.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. Atlanta Hawks – $7,400
Similar to Jayson Tatum, LaVine worked on improving his shot with trainer Drew Hanlen this offseason, and the results have been great this far, with LaVine shooting career bests from the field (51%) and on three-pointers this season (43%). Combine this efficient shooting with LaVine’s team-high 24.9% usage rate for the Bulls, and he is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM and 37.7 DraftKings PPG this season.
LaVine has scored at least 42 DraftKings in three of his past five starts, and this matchup with the Hawks is a perfect spot for him to keep flashing great upside. Atlanta ranks third in pace, 20th in defensive efficiency and this game’s total is the highest the NBA has seen this season (246 points). This is the largest total on the slate by nearly 10 points, and the Hawks are only a 1.5-point favorite. Having shares of this game is a necessity tonight, and LaVine is one of the best ways to attack this elite setting.
Top Value: Jaden Hardy at Denver Nuggets – $3,900
Hardy is a viable punt play with Donic sidelined. With the superstar out this past Sunday vs. the Thunder, Hardy posted 19.25 DraftKings points across 24.1 minutes off the bench. This was a solid result, considering Oklahoma City is the No.1 defense in the league, and Hardy should produce an even better fantasy score vs. the Nuggets, who are 17th in defensive efficiency and could remain without Nikola Jokic (questionable, personal).
With Doncic off the court this season, Hardy has seen a 24.4% usage rate, and he has supplied 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Washington Wizards – $10,400
The Celtics handed the Cavaliers their first loss of the season Tuesday, and Tatum was the star of the show, pouring in 65 DraftKings points against the Cleveland defense that ranks eighth in efficiency. Now, on tap for Friday is a date with the Wizards, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. Boston’s implied team total is the highest on the slate (127.25 points), which is the largest total they have seen this season by nearly four points.
Tatum is scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 31.7% usage rate this season, and he should score nothing less than 50 DraftKings points in this gorgeous spot vs. Washington. Including a 52.3 DraftKings point outing against this Wizards club, Tatum is providing 53.4 DraftKings PPG when the Celtics have seen an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (eight games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Amir Coffey vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,000
Coffey started in place of Powell on Wednesday and thrived with the starting job, scoring 25.5 DraftKings points across a team-high 33.2 minutes vs. the Magic. Coffey lacks efficiency, with him averaging only 0.64 DraftKings PPM sans Powell this season, but our projections are slating Coffey for 32 minutes of work tonight, which isn’t reflected in his current salary.
Coffey is averaging 26.5 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has logged over 30 minutes, and he must be considered at this low price tag based on sheer volume.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Johnson at Chicago Bulls – $8,300
Johnson returned from a one-game absence Wednesday and showed no signs of rust, tallying a double-double of 45 DraftKings points vs. the Warriors and their No.4 ranked defense. Johnson is scoring 44.9 DraftKings PPG with a 23.1% usage rate this season, and as noted above, tonight’s matchup between the Hawks and the Bulls boasts the highest total of the season (246 points) and a tight 1.5-point spread in favor of Atlanta.
The Bulls rank second in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Hawks’ implied team total only trails the Celtics on Friday (124 points). Johnson is amassing 50.4 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or greater this season (three games) and the forward is a sensational target for all formats Friday.
Top Value: Tari Eason vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $5,700
Eason is never going to be a popular option as a bench player, and the forward has great upside relative to this price tag. Eason is shooting 52% from the field, and he is averaging 3.3 defensive stats this season, which has translated into 1.22 DraftKings PPM for the forward. Eason has scored over 30 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games, and the Blazers rank eighth in pace, and they are giving up the most steals in the league.
This is a great spot for Eason to fill up the stat sheet and he is a compelling mid-tier target for GPPs.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $8,400
Sengun is coming off a 52.5 DraftKings point double-double vs. the Pacers, and the center has scored at least this amount of DraftKings points in four of his past six starts. With a 26.4% usage rate, a 24.3% assist percentage, and a 19.3% rebound percentage, Sengun is contributing 1.53 DraftKings PPM this season.
The Rockets carry the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate vs. this Portland team that ranks eighth in pace (117.5 points), and Sengun also will be on his home floor, which is a massive boost for the big man. Sengun is an eye-popping 11.1 DraftKings PPG, better at home than on the road this season, for a strong average of 49.6 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Robert Williams at Houston Rockets – $4,800
Opposite of Sengun, Williams is the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections. Deandre Ayton (doubtful, finger) is expected to remain sidelined, and Williams has shown a strong ceiling with Ayton missing this season. While Williams only finished with 16.5 DraftKings points with Ayton inactive Wednesday vs. the Thunder, before this, Williams had recorded 46.25 and 29.5 DraftKings points in his previous two with Ayton inactive.
Williams has been Portland’s primary big man with Ayton out, with the former seeing at least 24 minutes in three straight games, and with this type of workload, Williams should easily surpass five times value at this salary. This season, the center is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM and 25.9 DraftKings PPG when he has logged a minimum of 20 minutes the last two seasons (six games).
