Friday night’s main slate on DraftKings features the first seven NBA games of the evening. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,200
Young was sensational Wednesday vs. the Wizards, delivering a season-high 68.5 DraftKings points across 40 minutes. The Hawks were without Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring), Dyson Daniels (hip), and De’Andre Hunter (knee) for this game and will remain without all three of these players Friday. Right around 40 minutes again is a fair expectation for Young with his team so thin, and with Bogdanovic, Daniels, and Hunter off the court this season, Young is generating 1.52 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
In addition to the huge workload, this matchup with the Kings presents the highest total on the slate by a significant seven points (239.5 points), which is the highest total the NBA has seen this season. Young brings an incredible ceiling in this situation and is a must-play at this price point.
Top Value: Jose Alvarado vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,600
With CJ McCollum (adductor), Herbert Jones (shoulder), and Trey Murphy III (hamstring) out Wednesday, Alvarado entered the Pelicans’ starting five and was great, finishing 35.75 DraftKings points across 34.6 minutes vs. the Warriors. With McCollum, Jones, and Murphy out again tonight, Alvarado should remain a starter and is an easy choice at this low salary in an excellent matchup vs. the Pacers, who rank fifth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency.
This game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (232.5 points), and with McCollum, Jones, and Murphy off the floor over the last two seasons, Alvarado is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM. With New Orleans so shorthanded, Alvarado should see 30+ minutes, and for the four occasions he has cracked the 30-minute mark over the last two seasons, Alvarado is supplying 25.8 DraftKings PPG. In the ShotQuality projections, the veteran is a top-three value on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown at Charlotte Hornets – $8,500
Brown shouldn’t be overly popular tonight; with plenty of strong options to consider in this price range, he is a sharp GPP target. The reigning NBA Finals MVP has been excellent to begin this season, with 44.8 DraftKings PPG and a career-high 33% usage rate. The Hornets haven’t improved defensively this season, ranking 27th in efficiency, and the Celtics carry the second-highest implied team total on the board (121.75 points).
Boston is a 10.5-point favorite for this contest, but if they run away with a victory, Brown should be one of the primary reasons. For the last five instances the Celtics have been road favorites and carried an implied team total of at least 120 points, Brown has recorded at least 47 DraftKings points four times.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter at Atlanta Hawks – $4,300
Going against a shorthanded Hawks team that ranks third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, the Kings boast the highest implied team total the NBA has seen this season (123.75 points). Huerter has been solid recently, and he is a compelling, cheap way to gain a share of Sacramento’s offense.
Huerter is amassing 27.9 DraftKings points in 28.7 minutes per game across his last three starts, and he is attempting six three-pointers per game this season. The Hawks are allowing the most made three-pointers this season by a comfortable margin (18.2), and Huerter should shoot himself to a strong showing of at least 25 DraftKings points against his former team.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: RJ Barrett vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $7,200
With the Raptors missing Scottie Barnes (eye) and Immanuel Quickley (pelvic) on Wednesday, Barrett erupted 52.5 DraftKings points in 33.2 minutes vs. the Hornets. Both Barnes and Quickley will remain unavailable Friday, leaving Barrett as the Raptors’ alpha. The ex-Knick has made three starts with Barnes and Quickley inactive since Barrett joined the Raptors, and he is providing 44.3 DraftKings PPG with a 30.8% usage rate in those tilts.
The Lakers rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and Barrett should have been priced over $8,000 in this situation.
Top Value: Zaccharie Risacher vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,500
Risacher is a strong punt play with the Hawks missing Bogdanovic, Daniels, and Hunter. With these three players out Wednesday, Risacher started and posted 33 DraftKings points across 34.5 minutes vs. the Wizards. The No.1 pick from this past NBA draft ranked third for the Hawks in playing time, and his usage was at a healthy 21.1%.
This role isn’t reflected in Risacher’s salary and with the rookie competing in this elite setting vs. the Kings, Risacher is one of the best value plays available Friday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Johnson vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,400
Continuing with the shorthanded Hawks in this massive total vs. the Kings, Johnson is one of the best spends on the slate. With Atlanta missing key players, Johnson has been a beast, scoring 59 and 54.75 DraftKings points in his last two starts. With a 26.6% usage rate – which is 3.2 percentage point life from his average – Johnson is producing 1.4 DraftKings PPM with Bogdanovic, Daniels, and Hunter off the court this season, via the On/Off Tool.
A third straight effort over 50 DraftKings points is a strong possibility for Johnson tonight, and he needs to be one of your core plays.
Top Value: Mortiz Wagner at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,900
With the Magic thin up front, Wagner has merit at this cheap salary. On top of Orlando’s centerpiece Paolo Banchero (oblique) being out, Jonathan Isaac has been dealing with a hip injury that has limited him to only two games this season and less than 15 minutes in both of those contests. Plus, Franz Wagner (illness) and Goga Bitadze (foot) are questionable. Given how fragile he is, it is very unlikely Isaac all the sudden plays big minutes tonight. Wagner should find himself in a 20-25-minute role, giving him a great chance to smash at this low salary, regardless of this tough matchup vs. the Cavaliers.
Wagner posted 26.75 DraftKings points in the last game he played with Banchero inactive and Wagner is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Banchero off the floor the last two seasons.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Toronto Raptors – $10,600
Davis was held to only 44.75 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s 24-point loss to the Cavaliers, but the big should rebound in a big way against the shorthanded Raptors. Toronto ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Lakers’ implied team total is the third-largest on the slate (120 points). Davis is collecting 57.6 DraftKings PPG this season, and he is leading Los Angeles with a 31.5% usage rate, which is nearly a 5.0 percentage point increase from last season.
Davis destroyed the Raptors for 66.75 DraftKings points in one of his two matchups with the team last season, and the big man owns the highest ceiling on the slate in the ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Neemis Queta at Charlotte Hornets – $3,200
Queta led the Celtics in plus/minus during their impressive comeback vs. the Pacers on Wednesday and the center was so effective that Queta played the final 14 minutes of this game that went to overtime over Al Horford. The veteran will now be rested tonight, and with Horford missing, Queta should see 15-20 minutes, regardless if he starts or not.
Over the last two seasons, Queta is contributing 1.2 DraftKings PPM, and he is averaging 23.5 DraftKings PPG when he has received at least 15 minutes (six games). Going against this Hornets defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, Queta must be considered at his near minimum salary.
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