The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Toronto Raptors – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Doncic has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards on this slate by a margin of a dozen fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at any position on both sites coming into the day, and he could catch a little bit of a break if Fred VanVleet (back, questionable) misses a third straight game, which would greatly improve Doncic’s matchup.
In his first seven games this season, Doncic has posted an astounding 40.7% usage rate, the highest in the NBA by over three percentage points. He has averaged 36.1 points per game to also lead the NBA while adding 9.0 assists and 8.9 rebounds to average 64.28 DraftKings points and 63.28 FanDuel points per contest.
He’s projected for the highest usage rate on this slate once again and brings the potential for a massive triple-double and over 70 fantasy points any time he takes the floor.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey vs. New York – $6,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Maxey has the highest projected Plus/Minus at point guard on the slate for both DraftKings since his salary is so much lower there than on FanDuel, where he has been priced up. He brings the most projected DraftKings points per salary at the position and the third-highest on the entire slate. He has the highest rating at the position on DraftKings in both the cash and tournament models since he brings so much potential at his very affordable salary.
Even at his FanDuel salary, though, Maxey has to be considered since it looks like he’ll have to step up and carry the load for the Sixers with James Harden (foot) out a while and Joel Embiid (illness, questionable) still uncertain and possibly limited even if he does return. According to our On/Off Tool, with Harden on the floor since the team added him last season, Maxey averages 0.84 DraftKings points and 0.82 FanDuel points per minute with a 19.8% usage rate, but with Harden off the floor this season, those numbers jump to 1.46 DraftKings points, 1.41 FanDuel points, and a 35.3% usage rate.
In general, Maxey has taken a huge leap this year, averaging 36.5 DraftKings points per game after averaging just 30.45 DraftKings points per game last season. He will need to continue to produce while taking on even more of the load over the next month or so without Harden and brings a ton of upside while he does that, especially if Embiid is less than full strength as well.
This should also be a good spot for Maxey since the 76ers have the highest Pace Differential on the slate as they face the Knicks.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane vs. Charlotte Hornets – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Despite being outside the top 10 in salary at SG on FanDuel, Bane has the fifth-highest ceiling projection at the position, and on DraftKings, he has the second-highest ceiling projection while only having the eleventh-highest salary. Bane and the Grizzlies have the highest implied team total of all 24 teams in play this Friday, according to our Vegas tool.
Bane has been taking his game to another level this season, averaging 41.97 DraftKings points and 39.52 FanDuel points in his 33.6 minutes per game. His usage has seen a slight bump, but most of his improvement is due to a few more minutes and more rebounds and assists.
The third-year guard from TCU did miss a game with an ankle issue but has been red-hot when available. He has at least 29 points and 45 DraftKings points in four straight contests and has made multiple three-pointers in each of the seven games he has played.
Bane and the Grizzlies get a good matchup against the up-tempo Hornets, who will be extremely short-handed with many of their top players dealing with injuries, as detailed later in this post.
Top Value: Max Strus at Indiana Pacers – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Strus will likely get the start for the Heat as they visit the Pacers since Jimmy Butler (hip) has been ruled out for a second straight game. Strus brings a ton of versatility off the bench from the Heat in his current role, which is why he’s eligible at shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel but as a power forward on DraftKings.
Whichever spot he slots into, he’s worth a look in an increased role since he brings so much scoring potential if he gets hot from long-range. Strus has averaged 25.03 DraftKings points and 24.01 FanDuel points in his nine games this season and has made multiple three-pointers in each of his past five games. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of any player at any position under $5K on FanDuel and the third-highest ceiling projection of any player at $5,200 or under on DraftKings.
In his start on Wednesday, Strus actually didn’t get going and pile up points, but he still found a way to deliver fantasy production with a season-high four assists. The Pacers play at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, giving the Heat the fourth-best Pace Differential on the slate. With so many possessions and potential points, this could be a great spot for Max value.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Washington Wizards – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Durant will have to take over more of the offensive work for the Nets with Ben Simmons (knee) and Kyrie Irving (suspension) out and Seth Curry (knee, questionable) likely to be limited even if he is able to return. Durant is projected for a 37.75 usage rate, which is the second-highest on the slate behind only Luka’s. He also has the third-highest ceiling projection behind only Luka and Giannis Antetokoumpo.
Of all the players on the slate, Durant has the second-highest rating in both the cash and tournament model on DraftKings and the highest rating in both models on FanDuel. He’s significantly cheaper on both sites than both Giannis and Luka, so if he can come close to matching their production, he’ll be a better play since he leaves you more to build around him.
Despite all the team turbulence (much of it self-inflicted), Durant has been fairly consistent and productive. He has scored over 30 points in six of his eight games, with at least five rebounds in six of those contests as well. He is still looking for his first double-digit rebound game to give him his first double-double, but he has over 53 DraftKings points in three of his four most recent contests, highlighted by his season-high 61.25 DraftKings points last Monday against the Pacers when he had 36 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists while leading the Nets to just their second win of the season.
Top Value:
Kelly Oubre Jr. at Memphis Grizzlies – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
The Hornets already ruled LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Gordon Hayward (shoulder) out for Friday’s contest, and Terry Rozier (ankle) is listed as doubtful for the seventh straight game, along with Cody Martin (quad). With all those players sidelined, there should be plenty of usage available for Oubre, who has shown he can go off when he gets to take all the shots. With Hayward and Rozier off the floor this season, Oubre leads the team with a 32.7% usage rate and has produced 1.26 DraftKings points per minute.
He has the seventh-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings at the position and the tenth-highest on FanDuel, where more stars are eligible at small forward. He is definitely getting plenty of volume, with at least 16 shot attempts in five of his past six games. In those six contests, he has produced 31.9 DraftKings points on 18.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.0 steals per game.
In his most recent game, Oubre matched his season-high with 24 points and went over 40 FanDuel points for the first time this season. He will again be asked to carry the load, so he definitely deserves a look on this slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo at Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,600 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Giannis and Luka almost always bring the highest ceiling when they’re on the slate, and this matchup against the Timberwolves should be more of the same for the Bucks’ superstar, who has led his team to an undefeated 7-0 start to the season.
Antetokoumpo has six double-doubles in his seven games while posting at least 64 DraftKings points in five of his last six games while averaging 35.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in those six contests. He’s carrying more of the load than usual with Khris Middleton (wrist) sidelined, and he has shown no signs of slowing down.
Giannis is on the injury report but considered probable with his left knee soreness. As long as that doesn’t keep him limited, he will again be a great ceiling play on this monster slate. He has the highest median projection and the ceiling projection of any player at any spot on this slate, so if you can make the salary work, he is the best option available.
Top Value: Jalen McDaniels at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Another value play on the Hornets who will have to step into a larger role is Jalen McDaniels. McDaniels is already almost doubling his fantasy production from last season, and with Hayward unavailable will likely get his first start of the year in this matchup with Memphis.
In his 26.3 minutes off the bench, McDaniels has averaged 10.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. He took a season-high 18 shots against the Bulls on Wednesday while filling in more time and usage after Hayward’s departure. He finished that game with 40.2 FanDuel points and 34.5 DraftKings points on 11 points, six boards, five steals, and two blocked shots.
McDaniels has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any player on both FanDuel and DraftKings for this slate and is projected to bring the most points per salary at any position as well.
Center
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Dallas Mavericks – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Whether VanVleet gives it a go or sits out, Siakam brings a great ceiling to this matchup with the Mavs. He has the third-highest ceiling projection at center on DraftKings and the second-highest at the position on FanDuel. Spicy P also brings the highest usage projection of any center on the slate.
Siakam only played 28 minutes on Wednesday but posted an impressive 56.5 DraftKings points on 22 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds for his second triple-double of the season. He has at least 47 DraftKings points in seven straight games and makes a great option on Friday, especially if he’s asked to carry more of the workload in FVV’s absence.
Top Value: Kevon Looney at New Orleans Pelicans – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
The Warriors will finish their back-to-back with a trip to New Orleans after losing in Orlando on Friday, and that means Looney can make a second straight appearance in this value spot at center. Thursday in my picks, I highlighted him since he would be needed against the size of the Magic, and he’s in a similar spot with the jumbo-sized Pelicans on tap. Looney ended up playing 29 minutes Thursday and had 32.25 DraftKings points on 17 points and seven rebounds.
He remains a very stable producer for Golden State in their starting lineup, chipping in at least seven rebounds in four of his five most recent games and at least seven points in three of those games as well.
He usually isn’t a high-usage player, which limits his ceiling, but his reliable floor makes him valuable if you go cheap in the middle to stuff superstars in at other spots.
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