On tap for Friday night is a seven-game slate, with all of these contests presenting a total of at least 220 points. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Brunson shouldn’t be chalky tonight given his quiet start to the season – FantasyLabs’ projections are notably slating him to be only around 5% owned on DraftKings – and is in a terrific spot Friday vs. the Bucks. Trading away arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA in Jrue Holiday for the offensively focused Damian Lillard has been a death wish for the Bucks defense this season, with them ranking dead last in defensive efficiency after finishing fourth in the metric last year.
Brunson is only averaging 34.2 DraftKings PPG through his first five starts, but this has been mostly a result of poor matchups, facing the Cavs twice, the Celtics once, and the Pelicans once.
In that lone outlier start he had against the Hawks – who rank 18th in defensive efficiency – Brunson unsurprisingly posted 45.25 DraftKings points. The guard’s workload has remained elite this season – he leads the Knicks with a 28.7% usage rate — and Brunson should expose this soft Bucks’ defense for a minimum of 40 fantasy points.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Brogdon has been great since the Blazers lost Anfernee Simons (thumb), generating 32 DraftKings PPG with a team-high 29% usage rate in these last four sans the guard, and his role should grow even further with rookie Scoot Henderson (ankle) now joining Simons on the sidelines. With Henderson and Simons off the court this season, Brogdon has garnered a 30.5% usage rate and a team-high 33.3% assist percentage, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM via the On/Off Tool.
Regardless if he starts or remains Portland’s sixth man, Brogdon should see nothing less than 30 minutes tonight with his team short on guards, and this is an appealing spot for him vs. the Grizzlies, who rank eighth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency. Brogdon has 40 fantasy point upside in this situation, and he is a no-brainer for all formats at these reasonable price points.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyler Herro vs. Washington Wizards – $8,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Herro has been a man on a mission this season after missing most of the Heat’s memorable playoff run last summer, producing 41.3 DraftKings PPG. The Kentucky product has handled a 28.3% usage rate – which ranks second on the Heat, only trailing Bam Adebayo – and has a ton of upside tonight in this dream matchup vs. the Wizards.
Leading the league in pace and ranking 28th in defensive efficiency, Washington has been the best matchup to attack for fantasy purposes this season. No team in action tonight presents a higher implied team total Miami in this spot (117.25 points), and this contest’s total is the third largest on the board (225 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
This is the third-highest implied team total the Heat have seen over the last two years, and Herro is only hovering around 10% expected ownership in FantasyLabs projections but brings a ceiling over 50 fantasy points in out models.
Top Value: Josh Richardson vs. Washington Wizards – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Richardson is another appealing target from the Heat in this perfect matchup vs. the Wizards. In just his second game of the season Wednesday, Richardson finished fourth on the team in playing time with 30.2 minutes off the bench vs. the Nets. The veteran only recorded 14.75 DraftKings points but should improve if he maintains this type of workload tonight, which is likely, even with Kevin Love (shoulder) back in the fold.
The Heat have shown unwillingness to let Love play big minutes this season and always prefer to play smaller lineups as their primary unit, with four guards/wings around Adebayo. Richardson should receive 25-30 minutes and should exceed five times value with Miami slated for the most points of any team this evening.
For the last 10 times the veteran has cracked the 25-minute mark, Richardson is amassing 24.1 DraftKings PPG.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Shaedon Sharpe vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Sharpe is far too cheap for life without Simons and Henderson and is a valuable asset tonight with his small forward eligibility. With Simons inactive and Henderson exiting after 20 minutes Wednesday vs. the Pistons, Sharpe was asked to take on a huge workload, posting 51.75 DraftKings points across a team-high 42 minutes. Portland walked away with a win with the 20-year-old leading the way and should rely on Sharpe heavily again tonight.
With both Simons and Henderson off the floor this season, Sharpe’s usage has leaped 9.7 percentage points to a team-high 32.5%, via the On/Off Tool. The seventh overall draft choice from the 2022 NBA draft supplies 1.3 DraftKings PPM with this huge role and has a ceiling near 55 fantasy points in FantasyLabs’ projections.
Top Value: Luguentz Dort vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (out, knee) has been a usage monster this season at 35.1%, and with him inactive tonight, Dort should garner a much bigger role than usual. With Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup for 13 games last season, Dort usage increased 3.9 percentage points to 23.8%, and he provided 30 DraftKings points in 31 minutes per game.
While this is a tough matchup vs. the Warriors, who rank third in defensive efficiency, this contest sports the fourth-highest total on the slate (224.5 points). Dort has 30 fantasy point upside in this setting and is worth having some shares of, especially at only $4,800 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Just like with Brunson, Randle’s numbers haven’t been great this season due to many difficult matchups, but the forward should get back on track tonight vs. the Bucks. Milwaukee is the worst defense in the league in terms of efficiency, and Randle’s role has remained excellent this season, with a 26% usage rate, a 25.3% assist percentage, and a 16.4% rebound percentage. The forward is collecting 1.2 DraftKings PPM, and this game total is set at 224 points, which is high for this slow Knicks club.
In totals of at least 220 points over the last two seasons, Randle is contributing 45.4 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Dorian Finney-Smith at Chicago Bulls – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Finney-Smith is one of the best forward values on the board in this plus spot vs. the Bulls. Chicago ranks 21st in defensive efficiency, and since entering the Nets’ starting five three games ago, Finney-Smith has been a solid fantasy asset, providing 28.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes per game.
Finney Smith is a lock to see 30+ minutes with Chicago only favored by 3.5 points tonight and is expected to get way overlooked, with FantasyLabs’ projections forecasting him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings and FanDuel. For the last 10 instances, he has surpassed the 30-minute threshold, Finney-Smith is averaging 27.1 DraftKings PPG.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Dallas Mavericks – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Jokic is scoring a dominant 1.7 DraftKings PPM this season, and we should see a vintage performance from the big man tonight. The Nuggets carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (116.25 points), and they will be at home, where Jokic has averaged a whopping 8.2 DraftKings PPG more than when on the road over the last two seasons, via the Trends Tool. Overall, the center has amassed 63.4 DraftKings PPG on his home floor over the last two seasons.
Jokic has a high probability to finish as this slate’s highest scorer and is a compelling point-per-dollar value despite the hefty price tags.
Top Value: Dario Saric at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Outside of Chris Paul, Saric has been the Warriors’ most important reserve this season. So far, the forward has collected 21.6 DraftKings points in 19.1 minutes per game off the bench, including at least 20 DraftKings points in four of the Warriors’ first five tilts.
Saric’s usage has been solid at 17.2%, and his ability to stuff the stat sheet has translated into 1.1 DraftKings PPM. Golden State’s implied team ranks third on the slate tonight (115.25 points), and Saric is a sharp, cheap way to gain a share of the club.
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