The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Denver Nuggets– $12,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
As is usually the case, Doncic brings the highest ceiling projection of any player on the slate this Friday night. His ceiling projection on DraftKings is more than four points higher than any other player on this slate, and his 38.7% projected usage rate is also the most of any player on the slate.
So far this season, Doncic has produced 1.71 DraftKings points and 1.66 FanDuel points per minute and is averaging well over 60 fantasy points per game on each site. He is leading the NBA with 34.4 points per game and adding 8.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.1 steals in 37.2 minutes per contest.
In his two most recent games, Doncic has put on a show in wins at home. He had 42 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists for his first triple-double of the season last Saturday, resulting in 83.25 DraftKings points and 79.6 FanDuel points. He cooled off with “only” 35 points and 11 rebounds Tuesday against the Clippers for 63.25 DraftKings points and 61.7 FanDuel points.
Doncic rested Wednesday on the second night of Dallas’s back-to-back but is not on the injury report for Friday’s game against Denver. The Nuggets will be without Jamal Murray (more on that below), so that should put Doncic in an even more favorable matchup.
Top Value: Bones Hyland at Dallas Mavericks – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Without Murray and Nikola Jokic, who are both in health and safety protocols, the Nuggets will have a very different look on Friday against Doncic’s Mavs. With those two superstars off the floor, Hyland leads all players on the team with more than 10 minutes in that scenario with a 32.7% usage rate and has produced 1.42 DraftKings points and 1.34 FanDuel points per minute.
Hyland is projected for a 30.03% usage rate on Friday in 32 minutes, which actually gives him the seventh-highest ceiling projection among point guards on DraftKings and the sixth-highest at the Position on FanDuel. Hyland leads the slate by a significant margin in Projected Plus/Minus on both FanDuel and Draftkings.
The second-year guard has battled a hip strain that forced him to miss four games, but when ne has been on the floor, he has produced good numbers. He has scored at least 14 points in five straight games, averaging 20.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.2 steals in just under 25 minutes per game. With plenty of extra time and usage coming his way, Bones is a must-have this Friday.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Utah Jazz – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Booker has been carrying the load for the Suns, while Chris Paul (heel, questionable) has missed the past four games. He has the highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings on this slate and the fourth-highest on FanDuel, where several of the elite point guards have shooting guard eligibility as well.
In the four games Paul has been out, Booker has added 7.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds to his 25.3 points and produced over 48 DraftKings points in three of those contests. His usage rate and shot attempts have actually trended down just a little bit without Paul since he has been creating more for other players. He has a high ceiling regardless of Paul’s status but becomes more of a scorer with CP3 around to run the point.
He helped the Suns defeat the Warriors on Wednesday with 27 points, nine assists and 48.5 DraftKings points. While the team doesn’t get any bonus fantasy points for those outstanding city edition jerseys, they probably should since they were so great. Whatever jersey the Suns wear Friday, Booker has the potential to reach around 50 again in this favorable spot against the Jazz. Since the Suns have the best Pace Differential on the slate, Booker should be able to continue to produce nice numbers on Friday.
Top Value: Cam Reddish at Golden State Warriors – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Reddish barely got any playing time when the Knicks first acquired him last season from the Hawks, but the 23-year-old has worked his way into the starting lineup this season for New York and put together strong numbers. He’s still surprisingly affordable on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he can help give you salary flexibility by filling in at either shooting guard or small forward.
Since moving into the starting lineup seven games ago, Reddish has had a few big games and a few big busts, but he has gotten more productive and consistent in New York’s three most recent games. In each of those three contests, Reddish has scored double-digit points and played well over 30 minutes. He broke out with 26 points and 46.5 FanDuel points against the Thunder last Sunday and followed that up with strong games on the road against the Jazz and Nuggets, producing 25.7 and 22.6 FanDuel points, respectively.
While he does have a block in each of those three games, his non-scoring numbers remain fairly unimpressive, but he’s getting enough time on the floor to be a very safe value play. His involvement and usage make him a high-floor bargain play in a matchup that should fit his style in Golden State. According to our Vegas Dashboard, the Knicks-Warriors matchup has the second-highest over/under on the slate, so you’ll want to get some exposure to the contest if you can.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at New Orleans Pelicans – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Tatum’s continued emergence as a superstar has pushed the Celtics to a 12-3 start as the best team in the Eastern Conference so far. He has the highest ceiling projection among small forwards on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo (discussed below). Tatum is averaging over 50 DraftKings points and FanDuel points per game this season on 31.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per contest.
On Wednesday, Tatum had a season-high eight assists while helping the Celtics cruise past the Hawks but only had to play 33 minutes. Part of his increased playmaking responsibilities was due to the absence of Marcus Smart (ankle, questionable), and since the game was a rout he played fewer minutes than normal and scored fewer than 20 points for the first time all season. While his 44.25 DraftKings points were still solid, he had over 50 DraftKings in six of his previous eight games including two ceiling games with over 65 DraftKings points.
Tatum can go off and carry his team in multiple ways, and he is a nice option to build around in this matchup in the Big Easy.
Top Value: Klay Thompson vs. New York Knicks – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Thompson brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at small forward on DraftKings and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel. He gets a great matchup against the Knicks, who have been one of the most generous teams in the NBA to opposing small forwards.
Thompson has exceeded salary expectations in five of his past six games, and his ceiling projection is high enough that he sneaks into the top 10 at the position on DraftKings and the top 15 on FanDuel. With his salary still under $6K, Klay can give lots of upside while also providing flexibility.
In each of his past six games, Klay has hit multiple three-pointers and has scored over 15 points five times. He has added 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 0.8 steals to his 17.8 points per game over that span and contributed at least 25 FanDuel points and 29 DraftKings points in five of those six games. He has missed a couple of games for rest on the second night of back-to-back sets but has been productive enough to deserve attention in this good matchup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Philadelphia 76ers – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Like Luka, Giannis always has to be in the conversation for the top ceiling play whenever he’s on the slate. His numbers have been a little limited in his two games since returning from a knee issue, producing 41 and 43.5 DraftKings points. However, he only fell two assists shy of a triple-double on Wednesday, so the potential for a massive game is still definitely there.
In recent history, Antetokounmpo has crushed the Sixers, so this matchup may be the perfect spot for him to return to top form. He had 58.75 DraftKings points against them on opening night with 21 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists after posting over 62 DraftKings points against them in each of their three meetings last year.
Of all the players on the slate, Giannis has the second-highest ceiling projection, behind only Luka. He produced 1.76 DraftKings points per minute and 1.7 FanDuel points per minute, the best production rate of any player on this slate. He is actually a little under-priced on FanDuel, where he represents good value. He has proven he can go off against Philly and take over any contest, so he’s a strong centerpiece to consider Friday.
Top Value: Draymond Green vs. New York Knicks – $6,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Draymond is another one of the Warriors who has good value potential against the Knicks. Golden State has the second-highest Implied Team Total on the slate, and Green brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings.
Green has out-performed salary expectations in eight of his past nine games and has posted at least 26 DraftKings points in seven of those games. As usual with Draymond, most of his production comes from non-scoring contributions. In those nine games, he has averaged 7.1 points, 7.4 assists and 6.6 rebounds. He has at least six assists in all but one of those games and has come close to a double-double multiple times, although he hasn’t quite produced one this season.
With all the attention the Warriors have gotten for their struggles, Klay and Draymond have actually been posting pretty good stats recently and come as nice value plays in a favorable spot against the visiting Knicks. They’re a solid mini-stack of value options and should be poised to help the team bounce back after Wednesday’s 11-point loss in Phoenix.
Center
Top Ceiling: Myles Turner at Houston Rockets – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis also bring extremely high ceilings and are definitely worth a look. They are both very expensive, while Turner comes much cheaper and also brings great upside. He has the third-highest ceiling projection at center on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. He is projected for a 3.0 Plus/Minus on DraftKings while Emiid is projected for -3.3 and Davis -2.6. With other ceiling options available for paying all the way up, Turner can save some salary while still bringing a great ceiling, given his recent form and his favorable matchup against the Rockets.
Turner has posted four straight double-doubles while averaging 46.6 DraftKings points and 46.4 FanDuel points on 22.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per contest. In his best game during that run, he showcased his ceiling with 62.5 DraftKings points on 37 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks against the Pelicans.
The Pacers have the highest Implied Team Total on the slate, and their matchup with the Rockets has the highest over/under of all 11 games.
Top Value: Zeke Nnaji at Dallas Mavericks – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
With Jokic out for a second straight game, Nnaji is set up to deliver big value again for the Nuggets. Nnaji averaged only 3.8 minutes in his eight games before Wednesday but played 26 minutes off the bench against the Knicks. The third-year big man had 13 points, three boards and 18.25 DraftKings points in his expanded role and is projected for another busy night with a 20.09% projected usage rate in 24 projected minutes.
With the extra work coming his way, Zeke has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and the highest at center on DraftKings, where he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and the third-highest of all players on the slate behind just Reddish and Hyland (discussed above).
Nnaji doesn’t have an extremely high ceiling, but at this price, he doesn’t have to do a ton to bring good return while providing plenty of salary cap space to spend up for superstars in other spots.
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