After a short two-game slate Tuesday, the NBA delivers an 11-game slate tonight, with four of these tilts carrying totals of over 235 points. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Everything is aligned for Ball to shine tonight. Terry Rozier (groin) will remain out, and in these past five with the guard sidelined, Ball has flourished without his backcourt mate, scoring 56.1 DraftKings PPG. With Rozier off the court this season, Ball is generating 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 32.2% usage rate, which is a 2.2 percentage point upgrade from his average for the season, via the On/Off Tool. In addition to the huge workload, Ball gets a gorgeous matchup vs. the Bucks, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency and have struggled mightily against points guards this season with Damian Lillard in town.
This game’s total is the highest on the slate (238 points), and Ball also gets the advantage of playing on his home floor. For the last 10 instances, the guard has competed at home, and in a total of at least 235 points, Ball has surpassed 50 DraftKings points eight times, via the Trends Tool.
Lastly, Ball would receive an additional boost if Gordon Hayward (questionable, hamstring) joined Rozier on the sidelines. With both Hayward and Rozier off the court this season, Ball’s usage has reached a whopping 40.9%.
Top Value: Dyson Daniels vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Since joining the Pelicans’ starting five four games with CJ McCollum (lung) sidelined, Daniels has been consistent, recording at least 25 DraftKings points in all of these starts. The guard has seen 32.8 minutes per game during this stretch and is simply too cheap for this type of volume.
Regardless of this subpar matchup vs. the Nuggets, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency, Daniels should exceed five-times value tonight and is a viable value play for all formats.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Utah Jazz – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
With Bradley Beal (back) doubtful tonight, Booker has massive upside against this Jazz defense that ranks 28th in efficiency. The Kentucky product has not played with Beal this season and has been incredible, amassing 1.63 DraftKings PPM. As expected with this type of production, Booker’s role has been immense, leading the Suns with a 35.4% usage rate and an enormous 55.8% assist percentage, both of which are career highs for Booker.
Phoenix’s implied team total is the third largest on the board tonight (120.5 points), and this game should stay competitive throughout, with the Suns on the road and only 5.5-point favorites, via the FantasyLabs Vegas page. Booker should see a full workload tonight and has 60 fantasy point upside. As a cherry on top, FantasyLabs projections are slating him to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Phoenix Suns – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Opposite of Booker, Sexton is an appealing, cheap value to attack this potential shootout with the Suns, especially at only $4,100 on DraftKings. This tilt’s total is the fourth highest on the slate (235.5 points), and Sexton has been solid as the Jazz’s primary scorer off the bench this season, supplying 20.1 DraftKings PPG. With this role, the combo guard’s usage has been very encouraging, ranking second on the Jazz at 25.5%, helping Sexton provide 1.0 DraftKings PPM.
The veteran has topped 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and should reach this feat again tonight.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Portland Trail Blazers – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
James (calf) is questionable tonight but has played through this tag in back-to-back games and should do so again tonight, with this contest not being part of a back-to-back set for the Lakers. We might not have official word on the superstar until after the start of this slate, so naturally, James should come with depressed ownership, making him a great high-end, contrarian option.
James is coming off his first triple-double of the season, which resulted in 71.5 DraftKings points vs. the Kings on Wednesday. The 38-year-old has exceeded 50 DraftKings points in 6 of his 11 starts this season and James’ role has remained elite despite this being his 20th season in the NBA, with him leading Los Angeles with a 29.8% usage rate and 29.5% assist percentage.
The Lakers’ implied team total is up to 116.25 points tonight, and James is averaging 53 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points over the last two seasons, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Michael Porter Jr. at New Orleans Pelicans – $6,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Porter Jr. should bounce back tonight after disappointing with only 20.25 DraftKings vs. the Clippers on Wednesday. The forward is facing a Pelicans’ defense that ranks 21st in efficiency this season, and Jamal Murray (hamstring) remains out for the Nuggets.
Before Wednesday, Porter Jr. was producing 40.1 DraftKings PPG with Murray unavailable for the previous four, when including the November 4th matchup vs. the Bulls, in which Murray was only available for 10 minutes before getting hurt. Porter Jr. just posted 38.25 DraftKings vs. New Orleans last Monday with Murray inactive and with the guard off the floor this season, Porter Jr.’s usage rate (22.2%) ranks second on the Nuggets, trailing only Nikola Jokic, via the On/Off Tool.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Wembanyama should get overlooked tonight after scoring only 28.8 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s anticipated matchup vs. fellow rookie standout Chet Holmgren, and the Thunder – FantasyLabs projections are forecasting Wembanyama to be only 1% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Furthermore, the 19-year-old is in an excellent bounce-back spot tonight vs. the Kings. Both San Antonio and Sacramento rank top- 10 in pace this season, and this contest’s total is the second-highest on the slate (237.5 points). Lastly, the Spurs will be at home tonight, which is huge news for Wembanyama. The rookie has unsurprisingly been much more comfortable at home this season, scoring 45.8 DraftKings PPG, which is a huge 13.6 increase from his results on the road.
Wembanyama is leading the Spurs with a 30.7% usage rate this season and is one of the best GPP plays available in this eruption spot for the rookie.
Top Value: Robert Covington at Atlanta Hawks – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
With Kelly Oubre Jr. (ribs) and Nicholas Batum (personal) out Wednesday vs. the Celtics, Covington started and finished with 27.5 DraftKings points across a season-high 37 minutes. This was an excellent result considering the brutal matchup vs. Boston – they rank third in defensive efficiency – and Covington should continue to see huge playing time Friday, with both Oubre Jr. and Batum remaining unavailable. Plus, this is a much better spot for Covington, with the Hawks ranking 23rd in pace and eighth in pace.
The veteran is amassing 26 DraftKings PPG when given at least 25 minutes over the last two seasons and is one of the better forward values on the board tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at New Orleans Pelicans – $12,500 DraftKings, $12,800 FanDuel
Even as the highest-priced player on both sites, Jokic is rating as a strong value tonight, and having some exposure to the superstar is a must with Murray still out for Denver. Jokic has destroyed his opponents for a whopping 73.6 DraftKings PPG without Murray this season. Overall, Jokic is supplying a godly 2.0 DraftKings PPM with Murray off the court this season, which is attributed to his usage and assist rates increasing 1.9 and 4.3 percentage points, respectively.
Including a 79 DraftKings point explosion just last week, Jokic is averaging 72.1 DraftKings PPG in the three matchups vs. the Pelicans over the last two seasons.
Top Value: Nick Richards vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Richards has a ton of merit as a punt in this beautiful game environment vs. the Bucks. As noted above, Milwaukee ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (238 points). As the Hornets’ primary backup center, Richards has been very efficient this season, collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM. The big man is fresh off a season-best 28.5 DraftKings points vs. the Heat on Tuesday, marking his fifth effort of at least 26 DraftKings points in his last seven games. Notably, during that performance Tuesday, Richards logged a season-high 25 minutes and closed the game with the Hornets’ starters, over starting center Mark Williams, who wasn’t dealing with foul trouble or an injury.
Charlotte did lose this game by six points, but this may be a sign that Richards and Williams might be trending towards an even split at center going forward. Nonetheless, Richards should be able to beat his current salaries vs. this soft Bucks’ defense and is expected to come with essentially no ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to FantasyLabs’ projections.
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