The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Morant has the highest ceiling projection of any player on this eight-game slate on DraftKings and the third-highest ceiling projection of any player on FanDuel. Part of that is due to the Grizzlies having the highest implied team total on our Vegas Dashboard as they take on the Timberwolves, who play at the third-fastest Pace in the NBA.
In his 11 games this season, Morant has produced 47.8 DraftKings points and 45.77 FanDuel points in 32.8 minutes per game by averaging 28.8 points, 6.9 assists and 5.6 rebounds. He narrowly missed a triple-double against Boston earlier this week, finishing with 60 DraftKings points, and he followed that up with 32 points and 47.25 DraftKingspoints in a win on Wednesday in San Antonio.
The matchup with Minnesota gives Morant the highest ceiling of the available point guards, although the slate is stacked with high-upside plays at the position.
Top Value: Jevon Carter at San Antonio Spurs – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Carter leads the entire slate in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and is second on FanDuel while checking in as the best value at point guard by a wide margin. Carter is expected to get a heavy workload for a second straight game, with Giannis Antetokoumpo (ankle) and Jrue Holiday (ankle) joining Khris Middleton (wrist) as Bucks’ superstars sitting out.
Without Giannis and Holiday on the floor, Jevon Carter’s usage skyrockets 12.5 percentage points, and his DraftKings production increases by 0.5 DraftKings points per minute. Carter has actually started every game this year for the Bucks but averaged under five shots in only 23.1 minutes over his first eight contests. He has been much more active lately and took over on Wednesday when all three stars missed Milwaukee’s matchup in Oklahoma City.
On Wednesday, Carter posted 36 points, 12 assists and four rebounds on his way to an astonishing 62.5 DraftKings points. It was by far his best game of the season and beyond his ceiling projection for this contest. His ceiling projection is impressive at this salary, though, and comes in as the fourth-highest among all points guards on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Carter is in another favorable matchup as well since the Spurs rank fifth in the NBA in pace and give up the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing point guards in the NBA.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane at Minnesota Timberwolves – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Bane has the highest ceiling at shooting guard on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He has emerged as an outstanding running mate for Ja this season and is seemingly in the midst of a third-season breakout.
In his 11 games, he has put up 24.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 33.5 minutes per game for 40.68 DraftKings points and 38.17 FanDuel points per contest. His production of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute ranks him second among the shooting guards on the slate behind only Donovan Mitchell, and his expected usage in this favorable matchup gives him a slight edge over Mitchell, especially since he comes at a more affordable salary.
Bane had 32 points, six assists and six rebounds for exactly 50 DraftKings points on Wednesday, and he should be in a good spot to secure another similar ceiling game on Friday.
Top Value: Malik Monk at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Monk has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on the slate, behind only Jevon Carter (highlighted above). He will be in a potential revenge spot against this former team, the Lakers, who have been one of the best matchups for opposing guards this season.
In his first season in Sacramento, the 24-year-old has established himself as a key producer of instant offense off the bench. He has posted a 24.5% usage rate in 27.1 minutes per game over his past four games after playing under 20 minutes in four of his first six contests. Monk has scored double-digit points in each of those four games, averaging 18.0 points, 5.3 assists and 2.3 rebounds for 30.9 DraftKings per game over that stretch. He has at least 24 DraftKings points in each of those games, with a high point of 41 DraftKings points in a close loss to the Warriors.
He was questionable with a groin injury on Wednesday, but as long as that isn’t an issue, he should be a very nice source of value with a high ceiling in the late game.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Denver Nuggets – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Tatum has the highest ceiling projection of any small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His ceiling projection is only behind Ja’s on DraftKings and comes in with the fourth-highest on the entire slate on FanDuel. Tatum also brings a nice floor and plenty of consistency with only one real “dud” this season.
In a matchup of two 8-3 teams, the Celtics have the second-highest implied team total on the slate as they try to claim their fifth straight victory. Tatum has scored over 30 points in three of those four games, starting with a massive 36-point double-double that produced over 64 fantasy points on both FanDuel and DraftKings last Friday against the Bulls.
His fantasy ceiling skyrockets when he produced rebounds to go with his prolific scoring, but he still managed a solid 45.75 DraftKings points on Wednesday even though he only grabbed one board. Since this should be a close, competitive game, Tatum is projected for 32.49% usage, which is the second-highest projection of any player on the slate.
Top Value: Troy Brown Jr. vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Without LeBron James (adductor), the Lakers will have to have a number of players take on much larger roles, including Brown, who has been in the starting lineup alongside James since returning from injury. Brown’s usage increases by 3.1% with James off the floor this season, and he ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Brown has scored double-digit points in six of his seven starts this year, averaging 11.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per contest over that span. He has out-performed salary expectations in six of his past eight games, even with James available, so extra usage should only turn him into an even better value play in this matchup with the Kings.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
The main beneficiary of LeBron’s absence is expected to be Davis, who will have to carry the load on offense for as long as James is sidelined. In his minutes without LeBron this season, Davis’s usage increases by a team-high 4.7 percentage points to a team-leading 30.7% usage rate. He has produced 1.43 DraftKings points per minute without LeBron, and James’ absence definitely gives him the highest ceiling of all the power forwards available. He has the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on FanDuel and the third highest on DraftKings behind only Morant and Tatum.
Davis had 29 points and over 40 fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel in the only other game that James has missed this season, and that was a blowout loss on the road in Utah. Since this should be a much closer contest at home against the Kings, Davis is projected for 35 minutes and a 28.6% usage rate, which should result in a big game for AD.
Top Value: Bobby Portis at San Antonio Spurs – $7,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Especially on FanDuel, where he’s still under $6K, Portis is one of the top value plays on the entire slate, along with his teammate Jevon Carter. Portis has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, behind only Carter, and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate on FanDuel. He actually has the third-highest projected ceiling of any power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel as well, showing he has the potential to be an absolute must-have value if he reaches his potential
Without Giannis and Holiday on the floor, Portis is second on the team behind only Carter with a 25.8% usage rate and has produced 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute.
On Wednesday, Portis was an extremely chalky play in a similar scenario but only managed 13 points, nine rebounds and under 30 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel in an underwhelming performance. However, he’s in a great spot to bounce back, and the models still love him despite the recency bias, which may push some away.
Portis is no longer a cheap play, especially on DraftKings, but he still brings the potential for too much value to ignore. He matches seven Pro Trends on FanDuel and five on DraftKings.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Boston Celtics – $11,700 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Jokic’s ceiling projection is virtually identical to Davis’s at center, and his median projection and floor projection are both significantly higher. If you’re looking to fade the AD narrative and avoid a chalk night with the dreaded “Anthony Davis to the locker room” announcement, Jokic is worth a look as he leads his Nuggets to Boston to face the surging Celtics.
While he hasn’t had to carry as much usage this season as he did last year, he has still been very productive over the past five games, producing 21.8 points, 9.2 assists, 9.0 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks over that span with at least 44 DraftKings points in each game and a high point of 60.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs on Monday.
Jokic is a threat for a triple-double and a monster night any time he takes the floor, so he’s definitely a ceiling pick to consider at center.
Top Value: Deandre Ayton at Orlando Magic – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Ayton’s Projected Plus/Minus is second only to Portis at center on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Suns are still uncertain on the status of Chris Paul (heel, questionable), but Ayton is a solid midrange play under $7K in their frontcourt either way as they head to Orlando to face the Magic.
He has played at least 29 minutes in three of his four games since returning and has over 25 DraftKings points in two of those contests. The only time he played fewer minutes was in a blowout win over Portland, and since this game is expected to be close, he is projected for a full workload of just under 32 minutes to go with a 24.3% projected usage rate.
That projected usage rate is the fourth-highest of all centers on the slate, which is enough to give Ayton a strong ceiling and median projection in this price range, even though he is a little bit of a “boom-or-bust” play given his low floor projection.
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