On tap for Friday is an eight-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jamal Murray vs. Phoenix Suns – $7,700
Murray has been consistent with at least 44 DraftKings points in three straight games, and this is a prime matchup vs. the Suns, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season. This game’s total ranks second on the slate (238.5 points), and the Nuggets’ implied team total is the third largest on the slate (122.75 points).
Murray just exposed Phoenix’s soft defense for 49.25 DraftKings points last month, and he is amassing 1.14 DraftKings PPM with a 24.9% usage rate since the start of February. Murray should top 40 DraftKings points tonight, and he is a great high-end value for all formats.
Top Value: Cameron Payne at Los Angeles Clippers – $3,100
Jalen Brunson suffered a bad sprained ankle late in last night’s loss to the Lakers and is unlikely to play tonight vs. the Clippers, which should result in a spot start for Payne. The veteran is Brunson’s backup and in the lone game the guard has missed this season, Payne started and finished with 30.3 DraftKings points across 35.4 minutes vs. the Jazz.
With a similar workload tonight, Payne has the potential to 10x his near-minimum salary, despite this tough matchup vs. the Clippers, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency. This season, Payne is producing 1.0 DraftKings PPM, and he is averaging 24.5 DraftKings PPG for the six times he has cracked the 20-minute mark. Our ShotQuality projections are anticipating Brunson to be inactive, and as a result, Payne is the No. 1 value on the slate by a comfortable margin.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox at Sacramento Kings – $8,400
Fox will face the Kings tonight for the first time since the team traded him to the Spurs. While it wasn’t the most bitter of endings for the guard and Sacramento, Fox will certainly want to play his best tonight against his former team in their home arena. Due to some tough matchups, Fox’s recent game log is underwhelming by his standards, but he is still leading San Antonio with a 26% usage with Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) off the floor, who is, of course, out for the season.
Fox has the highest ceiling on the slate among shooting guards in ShotQuality projections and is a player you must include in your GPP pool tonight.
Top Value: Isaiah Joe vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,000
The Thunder will be resting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, and Cason Wallace tonight. In this situation, Joe should be one of Oklahoma City’s main players and see over 30 minutes of work. With those five players off the floor this season, Joe’s usage rises 7.1 percentage points to 24.4%, and he produces 1.0 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Joe is supplying 32.2 DraftKings PPG for the three occasions he has logged at least 30 minutes this season, and he is a must-play at only $4,000.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes vs. Utah Jazz – $7,900
Barnes’ salary on DraftKings has hit a season low, and he is an elite value at this sub-$8,000 price tag. Not only is Barnes going against the Jazz and their league-worst defense, but the Raptors are going to be shorthanded. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl are out for rest, while Gradey Dick is out with a knee injury. With these three players off the court this season, Barnes’ usage and assist rates increase 2.1 and 3.2 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
Toronto carries a high 118.25-point implied team total, and Barnes should score nothing less than 40 DraftKings points in this perfect situation.
Top Value: Aaron Wiggins vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $4,900
With the Thunder down five key players, Wiggins is a must-play just like Joe. With Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Wallace, and Hartenstein off the court this season, Wiggins’ usage leaps 9.1 percentage points to 28.8%, and he scores 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Wiggins is in the midst of the best season of his career, and he has had some big games even when the Thunder have been at full strength.
Now, with the table set for him to operate as Oklahoma City’s top option tonight, Wiggins should rise to the occasion and put up a huge fantasy score. In our ShotQuality projections, the wing has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Hart at Los Angeles Clippers – $8,100
With Brunson (ankle) unlikely to play tonight, Hart is a terrific spend. In that one game Brunson missed earlier this season, Hart posted a triple-double of 56 DraftKings points vs. the Jazz. The forward barely left the floor in this game, logging a team-high 45.1 minutes, and with the Knicks as losers of two in a row, Tom Thibodeau is absolutely going to have Hart play over 40 minutes again tonight.
Hart’s production increases to 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Brunson off the court this season, and another triple-double of over 50 DraftKings points is possible for Hart tonight.
Top Value: Jake LaRavia vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,500
With Domantas Sabonis (hamstring) and Malik Monk (toe) out Wednesday vs. the Nuggets, LaRavia had his best showing since being traded to the Kings, posting 27.75 DraftKings points across 23.3 minutes off the bench, including the final three minutes of the game with Sacramento’s starters. Sabonis and Monk will remain sidelined tonight, and this is a juicy matchup against a Spurs team that ranks 24th in defensive rating over their last 10 games.
The Kings carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (121.25 points), and LaRavia should see roughly 25 minutes of work, putting him in a prime position to easily outproduce his low salary. LaRavia is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season, and he is amassing 20.3 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has logged over 20 minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns at Los Angeles Clippers – $9,900
In the likely event that Brunson is inactive, Towns will be an appealing stud to roster. The center went off for 69.25 DraftKings points vs. the Jazz in that one game Brunson missed earlier this season, and Towns is generating 1.7 DraftKings PPM with Brunson off the floor, which is attributed to his usage jumping 7.1 percentage points to a team-high 34.1%.
The Clippers are obviously a much tougher matchup than Utah, but Towns’ salary is far too low for life without Brunson, and he should exceed five times value with ease if the guard sits as expected.
Top Value: Jusuf Nurkic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,700
Nurkic should start in place of Mark Williams (foot), and if that is the case, Nurkic will be an elite value play at this season-low salary. The veteran has made two starts for Williams since joining the Hornets at the trade deadline, and in those tilts, Nurkic scored 35 DraftKings points vs. the Nuggets and 34.25 DraftKings points vs. the Kings.
While he is priced like a scrub, Nurkic is a strong interior scorer and rebounder who is producing 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season. The big man’s salary peaked at $6,400 when he was with the Suns earlier this season and Nurkic is egregiously underpriced for a starting role at only $3,700.
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