DraftKings’ main slate for Friday features the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham at Dallas Mavericks – $10,400
Cunningham is coming off a 66 DraftKings point triple-double vs. the Heat, including a game-winning three-pointer. The Most Improved Player of the Year frontrunner finds himself in a much easier spot tonight, going against a Mavericks team that ranks third-to-last in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
The Pistons carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (120.5 points), and Cunningham has scored at least 54 DraftKings points in three of his past five starts. The guard ranks ninth in the NBA in usage this season (32.3%), and this is a crucial tilt, as Detroit is only a half game behind the Bucks for the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. Cunningham should have another huge outing, and he is the No. 1 play on the slate. Despite MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being in action tonight, Cunningham brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Jrue Holiday at Utah Jazz – $5,500
After dealing with shoulder and finger injuries, Holiday finally looks healthy again. In his last four, Holiday has scored at least 30 DraftKings points three times, including a 42.5 DraftKings point outing vs. the Heat and a 30 DraftKings point showing against the same Jazz team he will face tonight. In each of these last three strong performances for Holiday, the Celtics have been without at least one of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown (knee), which will be the case again tonight with Brown ruled out.
Holiday is scoring 28 DraftKings PPG in the eight starts he has made without Brown this season, and Holiday’s excellent form should continue tonight against Utah, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Quentin Grimes at San Antonio Spurs – $8,800
With the 76ers in full tank mode, they have let Grimes operate as their main player, and the veteran has been putting up huge numbers. In his last six starts, Grimes has scored at least 41 DraftKings points in every game, including a 76.75 DraftKings point eruption his second-to-last time out. During this six-game stretch, Grimes has led Philadelphia with a huge 36.3% usage rate and 34.1 minutes per game.
Tonight, Grimes is facing the Spurs, who rank second-to-last in defensive rating since the All-Star Break. The only defense that has been worse during this time is the 76ers, and this clash of poor defenses presents the highest total on the slate (236.5 points). Grimes’ tremendous run should continue in this setting, and he is a compelling spend tonight.
Top Value: Jordan Hawkins at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,200
The Pelicans will face the Timberwolves for the second straight game Friday, and in the first leg of this mini-series, Hawkins posted 26.5 DraftKings points in 23 minutes off the bench in the win for New Orleans. The main reason for Hawkins’ great performance was the absence of Trey Murphy (shoulder), who is done for the season.
Now, Zion Williamson (back) will be joining Murphy on the sidelines, making Hawkins an elite punt play. In the five games the UConn product has played in with both Williamson and Murphy inactive this season, Hawkins is averaging 22 DraftKings points in 27.5 minutes per game. Overall, with both Williamson and Murphy off the floor this season, Hawkins is producing 0.8 DraftKings PPM with a 24.5% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Utah Jazz – $11,000
With Brown out, Tatum sees a notable boost and has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. With Brown off the court this season, Tatum’s usage rises 5.4 percentage points to 36.6%, and he scores 1.5 DraftKings PPM. The Jazz are the worst defense in the NBA, and the Celtics still have a small chance of catching the Cavaliers for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. With Cleveland losing three in a row, Boston is now six games back from the Cavaliers, which is the closest they have been in quite some time.
The Celtics have a much easier remaining schedule than Cleveland, and at least for another week or two, Boston should be motivated to win every game. Tatum should have a great performance tonight, and over 60 DraftKings points is on the table for the superstar.
Top Value: Jaylen Martin vs. Orlando Magic – $3,500
Martin has been one of the primary beneficiaries with the Wizards tanking. In their last two games, Martin has scored 26 DraftKings points vs. the Trail Blazers and 20.25 DraftKings points vs. the Jazz. The rookie has seen at least 28 minutes off the bench in both of these games, and he has garnered a solid 19.6% usage rate.
With Washington trying to lose games, this newfound role for Martin should continue tonight, and he should top 20 DraftKings points, regardless of this being a tough matchup vs. the Magic, who rank third in defensive efficiency.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Washington Wizards – $9,900
With the Magic chasing the Hawks for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, Banchero has been outstanding, scoring 57.9 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts. Orlando is only 1.5 games back of Atlanta, and the Magic are one of the most motivated teams in action Friday. Meanwhile, the Wizards are looking to lose to improve their lottery chances.
Banchero should feast in this spot, and the only thing stopping him from exploding again is a potential blowout. While this factor makes him better suited for GPPs, Banchero is one of the best GPP plays available Friday. This month, the Duke product is scoring 1.4 DraftKings PPM with a 31.5% usage rate.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,700
Hosting the depleted and tanking 76ers, the Spurs carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (121.25 points), despite Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) and De’Aaron Fox (finger) both being out. Johnson is amassing 28.9 DraftKings PPG in the nine games he has played without Wembanyama and Fox this season, and Johnson is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 24.9% usage rate with those two players off the court.
To put the icing on the cake, Johnson will be at home tonight, where he is averaging a significant 6.2 more DraftKings PPG than on the road this season. Johnson should effortlessly exceed 5x value tonight and is the best way to attack San Antonio’s huge team total.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Houston Rockets – $8,400
Adebayo is on the heels of a near triple-double worth 57.25 DraftKings points vs. the Pistons on Wednesday. The center has scored over 50 DraftKings points in five of his 11 starts this month, and the Heat desperately need a win tonight, as they have dropped nine in a row.
Miami is still alive to improve their seed for the Play-In Tournament, and while this is an ugly matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank second in defensive efficiency, Adebayo should approach 40 minutes in this situation, and he has a ceiling worth chasing in GPPs. Adebayo’s ceiling is the highest among centers in our ShotQuality projections, and he is likely to be very low owned given the matchup.
Top Value: Kelly Olynyk at Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,100
Since being traded to the Pelicans at the deadline, Olynyk has played three games with Williamson inactive, and Olynyk was great in those tilts, scoring 28.9 DraftKings points in 29.4 minutes per game. Murphy was active for all of these contests but now will be out tonight.
Olynyk is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season, and with both Williamson and Murphy missing, Olynyk’s usage and playing time should rank among the highest for New Orleans. The veteran has a ceiling over 30 DraftKings points in this situation and is a terrific sleeper for GPPs.
