DraftKings’ main slate for Friday features the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Darius Garland at Memphis Grizzlies – $7,700
With Donovan Mitchell (groin) remaining out, Garland is an elite target against the Grizzlies, who lead the league in pace this season. Garland went off for 55 DraftKings points vs. the Nets on Tuesday with Mitchell inactive, and Garland is now averaging 48.2 DraftKings PPG for the five starts he has made without Mitchell this season. With the shooting guard off the floor this season, Garland’s usage and assist rates increase 3.4 and 4.6 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.4 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Plus, this matchup with Memphis carries the highest total on the slate (244.5 points) by over 10 points. Everything is aligning for Garland to have another huge showing tonight, and he is one of the best values on the slate.
Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,900
The Spurs received word last night that De’Aaron Fox (finger) will miss the rest of the season. With the guard joining Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) on the sidelines, Paul should take on a much larger role that is by no means accounted for in his $4,900 salary for tonight.
In the five games the Spurs have been without both Wembanyama and Fox this season, Paul is producing 34.3 DraftKings points in 29.6 minutes per game. Mostly attributed to a 3.0 percentage point lift to his usage rate, Paul scores 1.1 DraftKings PPM with both Wembanyama and Fox off the floor, via the On/Off Tool. The Hornets rank 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star Break, and Paul is the No. 1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Green vs. Dallas Mavericks – $7,500
In Wednesday’s win over the Suns, Green went off for 50.25 DraftKings points in 36 minutes. Fred VanVleet (ankle) made his return for this tilt, but Amen Thompson (ankle) was unavailable. The Rockets will be in this same situation tonight, and they are facing a Dallas team that ranks 26th in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
Green is contributing 38.4 DraftKings PPG in the four starts he has made with VanVleet active, but Thompson inactive this season, and Green is a low-owned target that is worth including in your GPP pool for this slate.
Top Value: Jared Butler vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,600
With the 76ers in full tank mode, Butler has been one of their featured players, scoring 29.8 DraftKings points in 29.5 minutes per game across their last three. Joel Embiid (knee), Tyrese Maxey (back), and Paul George (groin) missed all these games and will remain sidelined Friday. Furthermore, Lonnie Walker (concussion) will now be out, and Kelly Oubre Jr. (knee), Quentin Grimes (illness), and Andre Drummond (toe) are questionable.
All in all, Butler will continue to be a primary option for Philadelphia tonight and is an elite value play against this Pacers club that ranks eighth in pace this season. Butler scores 1.14 DraftKings PPM with Embiid, Maxey, George, and Walker off the floor this season, and that number increases to 1.4 DraftKings PPM when you also remove Oubre Jr., Grimes, and Drummond.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Atlanta Hawks – $8,700
Leonard is on the heels of a 51 DraftKings point showing vs. the Pelicans, but the Clippers lost this contest to the lowly New Orleans squad. Los Angeles has lost five of their last 10 and sits eighth in the Western Conference. They desperately need wins right now if they want to avoid the Play-In Tournament, and the Clippers should be extremely motivated to take care of business tonight against the Hawks.
Atlanta ranks second in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, and Los Angeles carries the fourth-highest total on the slate (119 points). This is a high total for this slow-paced and defensive-minded Clippers team, and Leonard has a ceiling over 50 DraftKings points with Norman Powell (hamstring) still sidelined. With the wing off the floor this season, Leonard’s usage rises 3.3 percentage points to 31.3%.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,700
Johnson would have been one of the best values on the slate with just Wembanyama out, and now that Fox is also sidelined, Johnson is a must-play for all formats. In the five games the Spurs have been without both Wembanyama and Fox this season, Johnson is averaging 30.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes per game with a 26.7% usage rate, which is a 5.2 percentage point upgrade from his average.
Johnson generates 1.1 DraftKings PPM with both Wembanyama and Fox off the court, and not only is this a strong matchup vs. the Hornets, but the Spurs will be at home tonight. Johnson is scoring a dramatic 6.3 more DraftKings PPG at home than when on the road this season, and he should top 30 DraftKings points this evening.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at San Antonio Spurs – $9,100
Bridges’ tremendous recent play can’t be ignored, and he continues to be a player you must have exposure to. Bridges has been playing at a superstar level, scoring 64.5, 54, 54.25, and 66.75 DraftKings points in his last four starts, in that order. This month, the forward is producing 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a 32.3% usage rate, and he is shooting 50% from the field.
San Antonio has been the worst defense in the NBA since the All-Star Break, and Bridges’ incredible run should continue with nothing less than 50 DraftKings points. Among the players priced above $9,000 tonight, Bridges is the top value in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Ricky Council vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,700
With the 76ers depleted and tanking, Council has scored 31 and 18.75 DraftKings points in his last two games. Council got up to 32.3 minutes off the bench in that latter contest, and that was even with Walker, Oubre Jr., Grimes, and Drummond all active. Now, Walker has been ruled out, and Oubre Jr., Grimes, and Drummond are questionable. Those questionable players will likely see light workloads even if they do suit up, and Council should be in line for close to 35 minutes in this up-tempo matchup vs. the Pacers.
Council is amassing 0.8 DraftKings PPM with a 22% usage rate with Embiid, Maxey, George, and Walker off the floor this season, and Council should effortlessly out produce his low salary tonight. In the four contests Council has logged over 30 minutes this season, he is providing 28.4 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Evan Mobley at Memphis Grizzlies – $8,600
Just like with Garland, Mobley has been excellent with Mitchell inactive this season, scoring 44.8 DraftKings PPG (five games). With the star off the floor, Mobley scores a team-high 1.4 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage rate increasing 2.2 percentage points and his assist percentage leaping 7.0 percentage points.
In this slate-high total against the Grizzlies, who are the fastest team in the league, Mobley brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our ShotQuality projections, and he is a core play at this sub-$9,000 salary.
Top Value: Adem Bona vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,800
Regardless if Drummond plays tonight, Bona will be a great punt play. The 21-year-old has thrived with 48.25 and 31.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, even with Drummond starting in both those tilts.
The 76ers clearly want to give Bona more work as the team tanks, and the rookie should see 25-30 minutes tonight against this Pacers team that is yielding the third-most points in the paint this season. Bona is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has double-double upside in this spot. Furthermore, if Drummond is active, there is a strong chance that Bona gets lost in the shuffle with so many attractive value plays to consider tonight.
