For Friday, both DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slates feature the first six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgoeus-Alexander vs. Miami Heat – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Gilgeous-Alexander brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our NBA models and isn’t expected to be overly popular, making the guard a sharp GPP target. Gilgeous-Alexander is hosting a Heat defense that ranks eighth in efficiency, but Miami is playing their second game in two nights after a tough loss in Dallas last night. Naturally, the Heat should be weaker than usual on defense, and Oklahoma City’s implied team reflects this as the highest number on the slate (116 points).
Ranking fourth in the league in usage rate this season at 33%, Gilgeous-Alexander is a true MVP candidate and when he has been at home and the Thunder have seen an implied team total of at least 115 points, the Kentucky product has supplied 56.7 DraftKings PPG (23 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Vasilije Micic at Washington Wizards – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
With both Cody Martin (ankle) and Seth Curry (ankle) joining LaMelo Ball (ankle) on the sidelines, Micic moved into the Hornets’ starting lineup two games ago and has responded well with the promotion, scoring 30.6 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game.
Ball, Martin, and Curry will remain unavailable tonight, and Micic is in the best possible matchup he could ask for, facing the Wizards, who rank first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Hornets rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency, and this game carries the highest total on the slate (225.5 points) and a small two-point spread in favor of Washington.
This is the best game of the night to target, and Micic is a tremendous way to attack at these affordable price points. Also, it is worth noting that Tre Mann (groin) is questionable, and if he joins the Hornets’ lengthy inactive list, Micic’s stock will become even stronger. With Ball, Martin, Curry, and Mann off the floor, Micic’s production increases from 0.92 to 1.24 DraftKings PPM, which is the highest on the Hornets for this situation, via the On/Off Tool.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Despite this lackluster matchup with the Cavs, who rank second in defensive efficiency, Edwards is the No.1 play on the slate with Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) on the shelf. With the big man inactive last night, Edwards stepped up and delivered 65.5 DraftKings points across 38.4 minutes in a win over the Pacers, including an incredible game-winning block as time expired. This was the third time Towns has been out this season, and in those contests, Edwards has played like an MVP, generating 61 DraftKings PPG, with an eye-popping 41.4% usage rate, which is an 8.5 percentage point increase from his average for the season.
Edwards generates 1.4 DraftKings PPM with Towns off the floor and is a mouthwatering option, with FantasyLabs projecting him for only around 15% ownership on DraftKings and 6% ownership on FanDuel.
Update: Edwards (ankle) has been added to the injury report as questionable. The guard tweaked his ankle on the first play of the game last night but returned and showed no signs of injury, posting 65.5 DraftKings points in 38.4 minutes. Edwards has played through a questionable tag numerous times this season, and he feels likely to suit up. Furthermore, the late designation should depress his ownership. Now, if Edwards sits, Nickeil Alexander-Walker would likely start and would be a must-play. With both Edwards and Towns off the court, Alexander-Walker scores 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
Top Value: Jordan Poole vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Poole has flashed great upside since becoming the Wizard’s sixth man, scoring at least 39 DraftKings points in four of his first eight games since moving to the bench. Leading Washington’s second unit has translated into a team-high 32.3% usage rate for Poole, which is a huge increase from his 26.3% average for the season. As a reserve, Poole is producing 1.2 DraftKings PPM and is logging 29.9 minutes per game.
The Wizards and Hornets are the two worst defenses in the league based on efficiency, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (225.5 points). Poole brings much better upside than his salaries suggest in this environment and can be rostered with confidence.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at Washington Wizards – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Bridges got held to only 18.25 DraftKings points in his last start, but this showing came vs. the Magic, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency and 24th in pace. The forward is in a polar opposite spot tonight, with the Wizards leading the league in pace and ranking dead last in defensive efficiency. As noted above, this game’s total is the largest on the board (225.5 points), and Bridges should bounce back in a big way.
The 25-year-old had topped 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts before facing Orlando and went off for 51 DraftKings points in his lone matchup with the Wizards earlier this season.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Regardless of this poor matchup vs. the Pelicans, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency, Oubre Jr. is one of the best mid-tier targets available Friday. For the sixth time this season, the 76ers will be without both Joel Embiid (knee) and Tyrese Maxey (concussion) tonight, and in those first five contests without the two All-Stars, Oubre Jr. was stellar, providing 41.2 DraftKings points in 36.3 minutes per game. In those tilts, the veteran’s usage leaped 9.0 percentage points to a team-high 29.5%, via the On/Off Tool.
This elite role out trumps any concerns we should have about this matchup with New Orleans and FantasyLabs is projecting Oubre Jr. for modest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma vs. Charlotte Hornets – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Not only has Poole’s move to the bench helped the guard’s numbers, but it has also been a boost for Kuzma. In these first eight games, since Poole became a reserve, Kuzma has recorded at least 41 DraftKings points in all but one contest, and that lone outlier was a 41-point blowout loss in Oklahoma City that limited the forward to only 26 minutes of work.
Kuzma has led the Wizards with 1.3 DraftKings PPM since Poole moved to the bench. The ex-Laker has dominated the Hornets this season, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with the club. Particularly at $7,800 on DraftKings, Kuzma is a terrific value on Friday.
Top Value: Caleb Martin at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
With Tyler Herro (ankle) sidelined for the last six, Martin has been handling a large workload, with 30 minutes per game off the bench. This role has resulted in 26.5 DraftKings PPG for the veteran, and he has notably closed the game with the Heat starters over Nikola Jovic in their last two. With Herro on the shelf and Martin back to full strength after being injured to begin this season, Heat HC Erik Spoelstra clearly views Martin as a starter, and he is simply too cheap for his current role.
Even facing this Thunder defense that ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, Martin has 30 fantasy point upside tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert at Cleveland Cavaliers – $7,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Just like Edwards, Gobert benefits greatly with Towns sidelined, and we should have no hesitations about attacking Gobert against this stout Cleveland defense. The center posted a double-double of 46 DraftKings points in the victory over the Pacers last night and now averages 47 DraftKings PPG for the three starts he has made sans Towns this season.
Gobert should tally nothing less than 40 fantasy points tonight and is vastly underpriced at only $7,700 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Bruno Fernando at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
With Jalen Johnson (ankle) missing essentially the entire second half Wednesday vs. the Cavs, Fernando saw 25.1 minutes off the bench and finished with 28.5 DraftKings points. Johnson has already been ruled out Friday, on top of Trae Young (finger) and Okongwu Onyeka (toe), and Fernando should receive 25-30 minutes again, with Clint Capela (adductor) still working his way back to full strength.
Fernando collects 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season and brings a similar upside to what we saw from him Wednesday despite this poor matchup with the Grizzlies, who rank eighth in defensive efficiency. For the last five times he has logged over 20 minutes, Fernando has provided 27 DraftKings PPG.
