The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
With 10 games on a full Friday night slate, there are lots of elite plays to consider, and Lillard is among the best of the bunch since he continues to carry the load for the Blazers with multiple key contributors sidelined. Especially at home, he has been putting up incredible numbers and should be set up for another huge game with this matchup against the Bulls.
Lillard has the highest ceiling projection on the whole slate on DraftKings and is second only behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (discussed below) on FanDuel.
Despite his high salary, he is actually underpriced according to the projections and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on FanDuel and is also in the top 10 on DraftKings.
He has outperformed salary-based expectations in six of his past nine games, including on Wednesday, when he had 30 points, 12 assists, 54.4 FanDuel points and 58.25 DraftKings points. He has at least 30 points and 57 DraftKings points in three of his past four contests.
In his 10 games in March, Lillard has averaged 53.5 DraftKings points and 51.2 FanDuel points per game by producing 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.39 FanDuel points per minute. He has a 36.5% usage rate over that span and should be in a great spot to put up another huge number as long as the right calf tightness that has him listed as probable doesn’t turn into a larger issue than anticipated.
Top Value: Monte Morris vs. San Antonio Spurs – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
With 20 teams in action, and especially at this point in the season, there are sure to be plenty of value opportunities. One of the teams to consider is the Wizards, who will be without Kyle Kuzma (ankle) and Bradley Beal (knee) as they host the Spurs. San Antonio has the worst defense in the league by many measures, including Defensive Rating and Defensive Efficiency, and also plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA, meaning there should be plenty of possessions for the Wizards.
With Beal and Kuzma off the floor this season, Morris has a 20.9% usage rate, which is a huge boost over his 12.6% usage rate with them on the floor. Without his star teammates, he has produced 0.88 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute.
Morris has taken at least 10 shots in four of his five most recent games and should be lined up for enough increased usage to easily return good value at this very affordable salary. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, trailing only Dame.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Sacramento Kings – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
In one of the night’s most interesting matchups, the Suns head to Sacramento to face the Kings in a game with the highest over/under of any of the night’s 10 contests. In that great game environment, Booker has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel behind Luka Doncic and James Harden, who both have extra eligibility on that site.
Booker is projected for a 33.7% usage rate which lines up with the workload he has had to carry since the trade for Kevin Durant and Duran’ts subsequent ankle injury. In the seven games since Durant got hurt, Booker has a 32.1% usage rate and has averaged 44.4 DraftKings points and 41.9 FanDuel points per game by producing 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute.
With Chris Paul on the floor, Booker doesn’t quite play enough point guard to rack up non-scoring numbers to reach the ceiling projection of Lillard, but he still brings a great ceiling in what should be an outstanding matchup. He lit up the Kings for 28 points and had over 50 DraftKings and FanDuel points when they met two weeks ago in Phoenix, and he definitely has the potential to reach that level again in this rematch.
Top Value: Austin Reaves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $6,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Since the Lakers shuffled pieces around at the NBA Trade Deadline, Reaves has been on the rise, helping the Lakers stay in playoff contention even without LeBron James (foot). Even though his salary has risen, he still brings good value with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is also point guard eligible on DraftKings and small forward eligible on FanDuel, providing extra roster flexibility.
Reaves has scored in double digits in nine straight games, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of those contests and averaging 19.8 points, 33.5 DraftKings points and 33.3 FanDuel points per game. He has increased his playmaking and averaged 6.1 assists during that stretch, which has helped him unlock the next production level. The Lakers host the Thunder in what should be another chance for Reaves to continue his emergence as a fantasy option.
Reaves moved into the starting lineup on Wednesday against the Suns and posted an impressive double-double with 25 points and 11 assists for 49.5 DraftKings points and 47.3 FanDuel points. You can see how he reached that production with our new Game Flow tool:
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Indiana Pacers – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Tatum has been outstanding all season and continues to put up great numbers on a nightly basis. He has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind Giannis. At power forward, he ranks behind just Giannis on DraftKings.
Part of the reason for his high ceiling projection is his great matchup against the up-tempo Pacers. Tatum and the Celtics have the second-highest implied team total on the slate as they host Indiana, who will likely be short-handed again. Tatum had 31 points, 12 boards, seven assists, 68.75 DraftKings points and 60.9 FanDuel points in his most recent matchup with Indiana at the end of February. He also had a big game with 36 points, 56.5 DraftKings points and 56.6 FanDuel points to close out the Celtics’ road trip with a 23-point win in Sacramento on Wednesday.
Coming home to this great matchup, Tatum is definitely a piece to consider building around on Friday.
Top Value: Simone Fontecchio vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
With Lauri Markkanen (hand) ruled out for the second time in Utah’s three most recent games, there should be a chance for Fontecchio to step up and provide value for the Jazz as they host the Bucks. The 27-year-old rookie from Italy has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and ranks in the top three in that metric at both small forward and power forward on DraftKings.
When Markkanen was out on Monday, Fontecchio stepped in and made a spot start, contributing 12 points, 19.25 DraftKings points and 16.7 FanDuel points. Even more encouraging than his totals, though, was the fact that he had an 18.7% usage rate and took 13 shots, including 10 three-pointers. With so many opportunities, he should be able to return value if he hits a few more shots in this matchup with Milwaukee. Fontecchio has flashed upside when given more run and should be in a position to produce.
One other quick note on the Jazz: Talen Horton-Tucker has a huge salary differential between DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s only $5,500 on FanDuel compared to $7,200 on DraftKings. As a result, he is a great value play on FanDuel, where he brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate, but he’s a much less appealing option to pay up for on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Utah Jazz – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Whether it’s the chase for the No. 1 seed, the MVP race, or just gearing up for another playoff run, something has lit a fire under Giannis lately, and his fantasy numbers have been dominant as a result. He has the highest ceiling projection on the whole slate on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings, behind only Lillard.
The biggest concern is that the Jazz, without Markkanen, may not be able to stay competitive with the Bucks, but even if that scenario plays out, Antetokounmpo has shown he can still post big numbers. On Wednesday, Milwaukee blew out the Spurs by 36, with Giannis only playing 24 minutes. Even in that limited time, he had 31 points, 14 boards, 54.5 DraftKings points and 51.8 FanDuel points.
His ceiling for this matchup is much higher, as he showed with a triple-double in the previous game, but regardless of the game scenario, he should be able to put up plenty of fantasy points against the under-manned Jazz. Giannis has produced a slate-high 1.77 DraftKings points and 1.68 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his production has actually trended upward over the last month when he has produced 1.86 DraftKings points and 1.76 FanDuel points per minute.
Top Value: Kristaps Porzingis vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
The Wizards offer value across the board, and Porzingis should be an elite option as the centerpiece of their offense against the Spurs. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is an elite value even though he isn’t necessarily a bargain at this salary.
Without Beal and Kuzma on the floor this month, Porzingis has an eye-popping 45.4% usage rate and has produced 1.65 DraftKings points and 1.63 FanDuel points per minute.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of his past 10 games, and during that span, he has averaged 42.2 DraftKings points and 40.7 FanDuel points per contest. Given the extra bump in workload without Kuzma and Beal, he is an elite play to consider this Friday.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Davis has the highest ceiling projection of all centers on FanDuel and the second-highest behind only Giannis on DraftKings. He edges out Porzingis and Joel Embiid (calf, questionable) in terms of pure upside, partially due to a juicy matchup against the Thunder, who have been extremely generous to opposing centers this season.
On Wednesday, Davis fell just one rebound short of a double-double but still had a solid 47.25 DraftKings points and 47.3 FanDuel points as the Lakers beat the Suns (Game Flow above). He averaged 21.8 points and 14.2 rebounds per game over his previous six contests, so he should be able to bounce back with a double-double and a strong night of production against the Thunder.
In his past 11 games, Davis has averaged 50.8 DraftKings points and 49.1 FanDuel points per game while producing 1.44 DraftKings points and 1.39 FanDuel points per minute.
Top Value: Nick Richards at Dallas Mavericks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
After the trade of Mason Plumlee to the Clippers and the injury to Mark Edwards (thumb), Richards has been impressive enough to earn himself a three-year contract extension in Charlotte worth $15 million. The second-round pick has been impressive lately and is in the top nine in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at center.
In his seven games in an expanded role, Richards has averaged 26.2 minutes per game and contributed 9.9 points and 10.1 rebounds with three double-doubles. Over that span, he has contributed 1.07 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute.
Richards had a big game Monday with 14 points, 17 rebounds, 42.25 DraftKings points and 41.9 FanDuel points against the Pacers. He has a similar ceiling against the Mavs and should be a solid value with a firm floor as long as he keeps starting in place of Edwards.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS: 5 Rules for Attacking the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
NBA DFS (Thursday, Nov. 3): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Friday, Nov. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 14): Is Jordan Poole a Must-Play?
