The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Boston Celtics – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Lillard and the Blazers welcome the Celtics to Portland in one of the eight games on Friday’s slate, and he brings the highest ceiling projection of all points guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the whole slate on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel in what should be a favorable matchup.
Just over a week ago, Lillard had 27 points, 45.75 DraftKings points and 43.7 FanDuel points in a 22-point loss to the Celtics, but he should be able to out-produce that number if this game stays more competitive. After missing the final game of the Blazers’ road trip, he returned to action on Tuesday and dropped 38 points, 59.25 DraftKings points and 52.9 FanDuel points in a home loss to the Knicks.
He has over 50 DraftKings and FanDuel points in seven straight home games, averaging 64.3 DraftKings points and 58.9 FanDuel points in those seven matchups at the Moda Center. Since this game is also at home, look for Lillard to put on a show and end up with another big number.
Top Value: Tyus Jones at San Antonio Spurs – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
The Grizzlies should be a solid source of value as they visit the Spurs, who have been the worst team in the NBA this season by many defensive measures. Given the matchup, Memphis has the third-highest implied team total on the slate and multiple players make sense who have helped step up in the absence of Ja Morant, who is still sidelined for this game.
Jones has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel and the third-highest at the position on DraftKings.
He stepped into the starting lineup in Ja’s place six games ago and has produced 1.02 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute for an average of 33.5 DraftKings points and 33.4 FanDuel points per contest.
He has shown a high ceiling with a pair of games over 50 DraftKings points, and he should be motivated to put up a big number in this matchup as he goes head-to-head with his brother Tre Jones (who is not on the injury report). He did start against the Spurs earlier this season and had 24 points, 42.75 DraftKings points and 43.6 FanDuel points in 35 minutes in an eight-point Grizzlies victory.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Chicago Bulls – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Edwards has put up over 40 DraftKings points in six straight games and over 50 DraftKings points in each of his past three coming into this favorable matchup in Chicago. He torched the Bulls for 37 points and 67.75 DraftKings points in their most recent meeting and continues to show he can carry the load while Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) continues to work his way closer to a return.
Edwards brings the third-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the second-highest ceiling projection at small forward on both sites behind only Jayson Tatum (discussed below).
In each of his five most recent games, Edwards has scored at least 27 points and has produced 1.29 DraftKings points and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute. He has added very strong non-scoring numbers over his past few games as well as he continues to do everything he can to carry his team to the postseason.
Top Value: Donte DiVincenzo at Atlanta Hawks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
The Warriors-Hawks matchup has the highest over/under on the slate by a wide margin, and the two teams in that matchup have the top two implied team totals. DiVincenzo has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel and is also in the top four at both positions on DraftKings. It’s also worth noting that DiVincenzo’s strong projections are with Stephen Curry (thumb, questionable) in the projections. If Curry cannot play, DiVincenzo will be an even stronger play.
DiVincenzo has been starting in place of Andrew Wiggins (personal), who will remain out for this matchup along with Draymond Green (suspension), which opens up even more work for Donte. DiVincenzo has a 14.6% usage rate since moving into the starting five and has averaged 25.7 DraftKings points and 24.3 FanDuel points per game over that 13-game stretch.
In each of his past three games, DiVincenzo has scored double-digit points, and he nearly had a triple-double against the Bucks with 44.5 FanDuel points and 47 DraftKings points last Saturday. He has that kind of upside, especially if he helps fill a larger role Friday.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Tatum continues to be a top ceiling option on a nightly basis, and on Friday’s slate, he brings the highest ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He had 30 points in last week’s matchup against the Blazers and finished with 45.25 DraftKings points and 41.4 FanDuel points in that matchup. He has reached that level in six of his seven most recent games, including five double-doubles over that span.
Tatum did take a fard fall in Wednesday’s win over the Wolves, and he’s questionable with a left hip contusion as a result. Keep a close eye on the news, but if he plays, Tatum brings a high ceiling, especially if the Blazers can keep things closer than they did in their last matchup. As you can see in the Game Flow below, Tatum didn’t even have to play in the fourth quarter of their last matchup. 
Top Value: Kyle Anderson at Chicago Bulls – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Anderson is in the top five of Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even though his salary has steadily risen over the past few weeks. He has still out-produced salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 contests with an average Plus/Minus of 10.05 FanDuel points and 8.69 DraftKings points.
The versatile forward does a little bit of everything for Minnesota and has averaged a steady 1.02 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points over that 10-game stretch. Since he’s playing a workload of 32.7 minutes per game, that usually results in him putting together very usable stats even though he doesn’t crush any single category.
He showed off his ceiling with a triple-double of 14 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds on Monday against the Hawks, finishing with 54 FanDuel points and 56.5 DraftKings points. His success could be a good indicator for DiVincenzo in that matchup, but it also shows how critical Slo Mo has become to Minnesota’s typical path to success.
If there are any NBA pick’ems you have conviction on, be sure to check out everything Underdog Fantasy has to offer.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jaren Jackson Jr. at San Antonio Spurs – $7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
In this tasty matchup with the Spurs, Jackson brings an elite ceiling at a salary that can work with a more balanced lineup construction if that’s the way you’re leaning this Friday. He has the third-highest ceiling projection at the position on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings. The Spurs have been very generous to opposing big men, so JJJ should be able to thrive on Friday.
In the six games without Morant, Jackson has a 25.5% usage rate which is an increase from his 23.7% usage rate on the season. He has produced 1.1 DraftKings points and 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over that six-game span. Those numbers are a little skewed, though, since Jackson had two tough outings against Dallas, which seems to be a bad matchup for him. In the four games against any team but the Mavericks during Morant’s absence, JJJ finished with over 40 DraftKings and FanDuel points.
Jackson averaged 40 DraftKings points per game in his two earlier matchups with the Spurs this season, and he should be able to exceed that total with an increased workload and a favorable spot on Friday.
Top Value: Jonathan Kuminga at Atlanta Hawks – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Kuminga is a small forward on FanDuel but a power forward and center on DraftKings, where he’s an especially good value on Friday night. On DraftKings, Kuminga has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward and fourth-highest at center.
He missed three games with a sprained ankle last week but was able to return on Wednesday and contribute eight points in 18 minutes. He should be lined up for a much bigger role in Draymond’s absence Friday. In games that Green has missed this season, Kuminga has averaged 25.25 DraftKings points and 24.1 FanDuel points, per our On/Off Court tool.
Especially at this time of year, that tool can be the key to identifying potential value plays like Kuminga.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Charlotte Hornets – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Embiid continues to post ridiculously impressive numbers almost every night, and he has the highest ceiling projection on the whole slate this Friday in an outstanding matchup against the Hornets. The Sixers have the second-best Pace Differential on the slate, and the Hornets have been an especially good matchup for centers over the past few weeks since the trade deadline.
Embiid has produced a slate-high 1.64 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute on the season, and over the past five games, he has been even better, producing 1.78 DraftKings points and 1.72 FanDuel points per minute. He has finished with at least 33 points and over 57 DraftKings and FanDuel points in each of those five games, exceeding his lofty salary-based expectations.
In this matchup, it’s easy to see that trend continuing in what should be a smash spot.
Top Value: Xavier Tillman at San Antonio Spurs – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Tillman has been a great value pick many times over the past few weeks while helping the Grizzlies deal with the absence of Steven Adams and the loss of Brandon Clarke. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players at all positions on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings behind only his teammate Desmond Bane.
Tillman has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past 10 games while playing 27.8 minutes per contest and producing 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over that span.
Against the Spurs, he can be a nice part of a Grizz stack or just used as a value play at your center spot to allow you to stack up stars at other spots.
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